signalmankenneth
Verified User
It would be folly to ignore the threat to US democracy.
Australia needs to prepare against the possibility.
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has seen a return to the political alignments of the 20th century, with the United States as the leader of a grouping of democracies against a Russian dictatorship uneasily partnered with China.
But Donald Trump has offered a radically different response, expressing his admiration of Putin’s “genius”, a description he has also applied to himself.
Trump long mused about the appeal of establishing his own personal dictatorship. At one time his suggestions of an end to democracy were generally dismissed as trolling (remember “take him seriously, but not literally”) but no more. The failed insurrection of 6 January 2021 has convinced many that Trump will try again to become president, and with better chances of success.
Less discussed, but equally alarming is the possibility that a Trump-led Republican party will win legitimately (that is, under the existing Electoral College rules) in 2024, and then cement its hold on power by disenfranchising Democratic voters, suppressing hostile media and so on, as has happened in countries such as Hungary and Poland (both much admired on the US right, and by some in Australia).
While a Trump victory is by no means inevitable, it is now recognised as a serious possibility, both by those who fear it and by those who would welcome it.
But there has been much less discussion of how such a development would affect Australia. Foreign policy for Australia is entirely based on the idea of formal and informal alliances with a coalition of democratic countries, with special preference for the “Anglosphere”, represented by arrangements such as the “Five Eyes” intelligence sharing.
How would and should Australia react to an anti-democratic coup in the United States? At least initially, the dominant response will be to pretend that nothing has happened. The standard form of words that this is a matter for the American people to resolve themselves will be invoked. Explicit opposition to, or support for, the coup will be confined to relatively marginal groups on the left and right ends of the political spectrum: the Greens and remnants of the Labor left in opposition, and the right wing of the LNP aligning with the far-right in support.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-if-trump-wins-again
Australia needs to prepare against the possibility.
But Donald Trump has offered a radically different response, expressing his admiration of Putin’s “genius”, a description he has also applied to himself.
Trump long mused about the appeal of establishing his own personal dictatorship. At one time his suggestions of an end to democracy were generally dismissed as trolling (remember “take him seriously, but not literally”) but no more. The failed insurrection of 6 January 2021 has convinced many that Trump will try again to become president, and with better chances of success.
Less discussed, but equally alarming is the possibility that a Trump-led Republican party will win legitimately (that is, under the existing Electoral College rules) in 2024, and then cement its hold on power by disenfranchising Democratic voters, suppressing hostile media and so on, as has happened in countries such as Hungary and Poland (both much admired on the US right, and by some in Australia).
While a Trump victory is by no means inevitable, it is now recognised as a serious possibility, both by those who fear it and by those who would welcome it.
But there has been much less discussion of how such a development would affect Australia. Foreign policy for Australia is entirely based on the idea of formal and informal alliances with a coalition of democratic countries, with special preference for the “Anglosphere”, represented by arrangements such as the “Five Eyes” intelligence sharing.
How would and should Australia react to an anti-democratic coup in the United States? At least initially, the dominant response will be to pretend that nothing has happened. The standard form of words that this is a matter for the American people to resolve themselves will be invoked. Explicit opposition to, or support for, the coup will be confined to relatively marginal groups on the left and right ends of the political spectrum: the Greens and remnants of the Labor left in opposition, and the right wing of the LNP aligning with the far-right in support.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-if-trump-wins-again

