Biden's risk-averse approach to Russia could create greater threat, experts say
They say an "emboldened" Putin might be more dangerous than added NATO support.
ByShannon K. Crawford
March 23, 2022, 5:10 AM
How NATO’s Article 5 could pull US into Russia-Ukraine War
With Ukraine neighboring 4 NATO allies, the US may need to respond if one of those nati...
Patrick Semansky/AP
WARSAW, POLAND -- President Joe Biden's high-stakes summit with other NATO leaders on Thursday will be one of the most scrutinized meetings on the world stage in decades, and could have enormous implications for both the war in Ukraine and the global balance of power.
Despite calls from Ukraine to do more to help stave off Russia's ruthless invasion, Biden has taken a cautious approach -- wary of escalating the conflict by drawing in U.S. forces as part of a more direct NATO response. But after nearly a month of fighting, some foreign policy and national security experts ABC News spoke to say it may be time for the alliance to take on a more direct role.
PHOTO: President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One, March 18, 2022.
Patrick Semansky/APPatrick Semansky/AP
President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marin...
Preparing for 'the worst case'
Since before the fighting broke out, Biden has insisted that American troops would not fight Russian forces inside Ukraine, warning that going head-to-head would lead to "a third world war."
But Barry Pavel, a former National Security Council senior official during the Bush and Obama administration and the senior vice president and director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, says that's far from inevitable.
"There have been other cases where U.S. and Russian forces have unfortunately come into friction and World War III didn't start," Pavel said, characterizing the strategy as simplistic. "There are hundreds of options that could be done between what NATO is doing now and risking World War III."
MORE: Prominent Putin critic Alexey Navalny sentenced to additional 9 years
The greater threat, warns Pavel, might be in leaving Putin unchecked.
"If he is emboldened by success in Ukraine, then he will be more aggressive in his efforts to nibble and to move into areas of perceived weakness in NATO members," he said. "If he achieves his goal, you'll have Russian forces on the borders of seven NATO members, including nuclear forces in Belarus, and so he'll use that new posture to really heighten European insecurity to a great degree."
And it isn’t Biden’s -- or NATO’s -- choice alone. Moscow could also escalate the conflict by striking a NATO member, either intentionally or accidentally, triggering a sweeping response.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/expe...ry?id=83538052
They say an "emboldened" Putin might be more dangerous than added NATO support.
ByShannon K. Crawford
March 23, 2022, 5:10 AM
How NATO’s Article 5 could pull US into Russia-Ukraine War
With Ukraine neighboring 4 NATO allies, the US may need to respond if one of those nati...
Patrick Semansky/AP
WARSAW, POLAND -- President Joe Biden's high-stakes summit with other NATO leaders on Thursday will be one of the most scrutinized meetings on the world stage in decades, and could have enormous implications for both the war in Ukraine and the global balance of power.
Despite calls from Ukraine to do more to help stave off Russia's ruthless invasion, Biden has taken a cautious approach -- wary of escalating the conflict by drawing in U.S. forces as part of a more direct NATO response. But after nearly a month of fighting, some foreign policy and national security experts ABC News spoke to say it may be time for the alliance to take on a more direct role.
PHOTO: President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One, March 18, 2022.
Patrick Semansky/APPatrick Semansky/AP
President Joe Biden walks on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marin...
Preparing for 'the worst case'
Since before the fighting broke out, Biden has insisted that American troops would not fight Russian forces inside Ukraine, warning that going head-to-head would lead to "a third world war."
But Barry Pavel, a former National Security Council senior official during the Bush and Obama administration and the senior vice president and director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, says that's far from inevitable.
"There have been other cases where U.S. and Russian forces have unfortunately come into friction and World War III didn't start," Pavel said, characterizing the strategy as simplistic. "There are hundreds of options that could be done between what NATO is doing now and risking World War III."
MORE: Prominent Putin critic Alexey Navalny sentenced to additional 9 years
The greater threat, warns Pavel, might be in leaving Putin unchecked.
"If he is emboldened by success in Ukraine, then he will be more aggressive in his efforts to nibble and to move into areas of perceived weakness in NATO members," he said. "If he achieves his goal, you'll have Russian forces on the borders of seven NATO members, including nuclear forces in Belarus, and so he'll use that new posture to really heighten European insecurity to a great degree."
And it isn’t Biden’s -- or NATO’s -- choice alone. Moscow could also escalate the conflict by striking a NATO member, either intentionally or accidentally, triggering a sweeping response.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/expe...ry?id=83538052
