Fukuyama: Russia Will Lose And Putin Will Fall

In “Preparing For Defeat,” reformed NeoCon, Francis Fukuyama, predicts that a new 1989 is coming:


1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent… Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle.

...

2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition.

...

5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own

...

7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army.

...

8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world… [like] Trump

...

9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China… The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations.

...

12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.


eat it T**** - sucking up to dictators is never a good idea, like instigating insurrections in DC for example
 
_123679267_ukraine_kiyv_closeup_attacks_13mar_mapx2640-nc.png
 
never a good idea to pick a fight with the US military, and then combined with NATO forces.....guaranteed defeat

if low-ranking low-IQ ex-KGB intel officer Putin had a clue what he's doing we'd all be in trouble
 
Hello reagansghost,

I agree, Putin has no good options here

not yet sure if he's stupid, ego tripping, ignorant of his surroundings, suicidal, or some combination

I think he was under the impression that his power was greater than it really is.

That's the thing about approaching absolute power. It corrupts absolutely.

Putin's thinking has been corrupted.

He thought Ukraine would be a push over.

He miscalculated, and it is blowing up in his face.

It needed to be a quick land grab like Crimea.

The longer it drags out, the worse it gets for Putin.

When the Russian economy is crippled, which is currently in progress, the Russian people will turn on Putin and he will be replaced.

Putin has unwittingly brought about his own demise.

He is trying to stave off the inevitable by arresting protestors and silencing the independent media.

Nothing tells the Russian people they are being lied to like those moves.

Back to the USSR?

I don't think so. Nobody wants that except Putin.
 
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I think he was under the impression that his power was greater than it really is.

That's the thing about approaching absolute power. It corrupts absolutely.

Putin's thinking has been corrupted.

He thought Ukraine would be a push over.

He miscalculated, and it is blowing up in his face.

It needed to be a quick land grab like Crimea.

The longer it drags out, the worse it gets for Putin.

When the Russian economy is crippled, which is currently in progress, the Russian people will turn on Putin and he will be replaced.

Putin has unwittingly brought about his own demise.

He is trying to stave off the inevitable by arresting protestors and silencing the independent media.

Nothing tells the Russian people they are being lied to like those moves.

Back to the USSR?

I don't think so. Nobody wants that except Putin.

definitely no 2d coming of the USSR, most all of those old Warsaw Pact countries are now either in NATO or proudly independent with no desire to become backwater hellholes once again

we owe the Ukrainians a HUGE debt of gratitude, how ironic this former Soviet state is showing the world the value of democracy..........hope MAGA nation learns a lesson or two along with Putin
 
Ukraine will win because Orange Man Bad?

Oy Givolt! :palm:

I'm not even Jewish.

That's a fucked up way of thinking.

not sure what that even means

T**** obviously worked with Putin as a business partner in Moscow and accommodated his ultimate goal to destabilize US democracy while 'president', but the Russian dictator's decision to commit war crimes in Ukraine was all his
 
not sure what that even means

T**** obviously worked with Putin as a business partner in Moscow and accommodated his ultimate goal to destabilize US democracy while 'president', but the Russian dictator's decision to commit war crimes in Ukraine was all his

Definitely not and Putin would not have money to finance an invasion if Biden hadn't bought so much of his oil.

Also if Biden supplied Europe with Natural gas and oil, but he rendered the US incapable of that now in 2022 on his 1st day in office.
 
Also if Biden supplied Europe with Natural gas and oil, but he rendered the US incapable of that now in 2022 on his 1st day in office.


and how exactly could Biden have supplied Europe with Natural gas and oil?

what are you talking about?


here's what I'm talking about:

In 1987, Trump visited Russia to investigate developing a hotel, invited by Ambassador Yuri Dubinin whom he had met in New York the year before.[3] British journalist Luke Harding alleged in 2017 that this trip likely began a long-term cultivation operation typical of the KGB's Political Intelligence Department, under written directives initiated by First Chief Directorate head Vladimir Kryuchkov, to recruit politically ambitious Westerners susceptible to flattery, egotism and greed.[3]

In 1996, Trump partnered with Liggett-Ducat, a small company, and planned to build an upscale residential development on a Liggett-Ducat property in Moscow. Trump commissioned New York architect Ted Liebman, who did the sketches. Trump visited Moscow again with Howard Lorber to scout potential properties for "skyscrapers and hotels".[4] During that trip, Trump promoted the proposal and acclaimed the Russian economic market. At a news conference reported by The Moscow Times, Trump said he hadn't been "as impressed with the potential of a city as I have been with Moscow" in contrast to other cities had visited "all over the world."[5]

By this time, Trump had made known his desire to build in Moscow to government officials for almost ten years "ranging from the Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev (they first met in Washington in 1987) to the military figure Alexander Lebed."[5] Moscow's mayor, Yuri M. Luzhkov, showed Trump plans for a very large shopping mall to be located underground in the vicinity of the Kremlin. The mayor complimented Trump's suggestion that this mall should have access to the Moscow Metro, and it was eventually connected to the Okhotny Ryad station. Although the 1996 residential development did not happen, Trump was by this time well known in Russia.[6]

Projects
See also: Trump Tower Moscow
See also: Felix Sater
Trump's business strategy included Russia in ventures intended to internationally expand his brand. He transitioned in the mid-2000s from building and investing in real estate to simply licensing his name to hotels, condominiums, and commercial towers. Although a strategy of taking a percentage from the sales was successful in other countries, Trump's terms were not agreeable to Russians and conflicted with their way of doing business with American hotel chains.[5][6]

From 2000 to 2010, Trump partnered with a development company headquartered in New York represented by a Russian immigrant, Felix Sater. During this period, they partnered for an assortment of deals that included building Trump towers internationally. For example, in 2005 Sater acted as an agent for building a Trump tower alongside Moscow River with letters of intent in hand and "square footage was being analyzed."[5][6]

In 2006, Trump's children Donald Jr. and Ivanka, traveling with Sater,[5][6] stayed in the Hotel National, Moscow for several days, across from the Kremlin, to see promising partners, with the intent of doing real estate development deals.[5][7][8]

Trump was associated with Tevfik Arif, formerly a Soviet commerce official and founder of a development company called the Bayrock Group, of which Sater was also a partner. Bayrock searched for deals in Russia while Trump branded towers were attempting to further expand in the United States. Sater said, "We looked at some very, very large properties in Russia," on the scale of "...a large Vegas high-rise."[5] In 2007, Bayrock organized a potential deal in Moscow between Trump International Hotel and Russian investors.[6]

During 2006–2008, Trump's company applied for a number of trademarks in Russia with the goal of real estate developments. These trademark applications include: Trump, Trump Tower, Trump International Hotel and Tower, and Trump Home.[9][10] In 2008, he said as a speaker at a Manhattan real estate conference that he feared the outcome of doing business deals in Russia, but he really prefers "Moscow over all cities in the world" and that within 18 months he had been in Russia a half-dozen times.[5][6]

In 2007, Trump announces that Trump Vodka will expand its distribution into Russia, his first foray into the Russian market.[11] Trump "Super Premium" Vodka, bottles glazed with 24-karat gold, debuted in 2007 at the Millionaire's Fair in Moscow. It was successful only until sometime in 2009. Trump attempted to create a reality show in St. Petersburg, starring a Russian athlete. However, this was not successful.[5][6]

In a 2015 interview, Trump said that his repeated attempts to launch business deals with Russians resulted in contacts with "…the top-level people, both oligarchs and generals, and top of the government people. I can't go further than that, but I will tell you that I met the top people, and the relationship was extraordinary."[5][6]

Efforts to build Trump Tower Moscow continued through June 2016, while Trump was securing his place as the Republican presidential nominee. However, Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen in 2017 told Congress that these efforts ended in January 2016, and as a result, Cohen pleaded guilty to lying to Congress in 2018.[12]

On July 9, 2019, Sater acknowledged before the House Intelligence Committee that one real estate project between Russia and Trump was falsely presented as a joint defense agreement, but withheld documents concerning direct details and phone records.[13] Following his testimony, Committee chair Patrick Boland announced "Our investigation thus far has revealed that Sater was not a part of any joint defense agreement, and has no basis to assert this privilege over these documents.”[13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_projects_of_Donald_Trump_in_Russia
 
I agree, Putin has no good options here

not yet sure if he's stupid, ego tripping, ignorant of his surroundings, suicidal, or some combination

I wonder if, like his lackey #TRE45ON, he isn't listening solely to those voices who say what he wants to hear, and ignoring everyone else? It's hard to say. Putin has always seemed to be crafty and clever at amassing power unto himself; it's hard now to imagine that he has deteriorated to the point where he's throwing it all away. We are either not getting all the information about the whys of this war, or we are and we're choosing ourselves to ignore it.
 
Putin is begging China to send military aid. He is asking Saudis to help. Vlad is in hiding. This is not what success looks like.
 
I wonder if, like his lackey #TRE45ON, he isn't listening solely to those voices who say what he wants to hear, and ignoring everyone else? It's hard to say. Putin has always seemed to be crafty and clever at amassing power unto himself; it's hard now to imagine that he has deteriorated to the point where he's throwing it all away. We are either not getting all the information about the whys of this war, or we are and we're choosing ourselves to ignore it.

from what I've read and heard Putin regularly purges his would be top advisors, is ruling in a vacuum of his own making.....megalomaniac

divorced from reality.........the dissolution of the USSR began in 1988, went kaput in 1991, and Putin has been obsessed with recreating it since day one

I guess an ex-KGB intel guy he couldn't accept the reality of the situation and still can't
 
Hello reagansghost,

definitely no 2d coming of the USSR, most all of those old Warsaw Pact countries are now either in NATO or proudly independent with no desire to become backwater hellholes once again

we owe the Ukrainians a HUGE debt of gratitude, how ironic this former Soviet state is showing the world the value of democracy..........hope MAGA nation learns a lesson or two along with Putin

I would not count on that. MAGA people cannot admit when they are wrong and cannot learn from their mistakes. The MAGA thing will die very slowly, and go out without a whimper, just as support for W and the Iraq war did. There will be no one defining moment when they collectively say oops we were wrong please forgive us. Not gonna happen. The whole thing needs to simply get replaced with more current news and fade away gradually.
 
Hello reagansghost,

and how exactly could Biden have supplied Europe with Natural gas and oil?

what are you talking about?


here's what I'm talking about:

In 1987, Trump visited Russia to investigate developing a hotel, invited by Ambassador Yuri Dubinin whom he had met in New York the year before.[3] British journalist Luke Harding alleged in 2017 that this trip likely began a long-term cultivation operation typical of the KGB's Political Intelligence Department, under written directives initiated by First Chief Directorate head Vladimir Kryuchkov, to recruit politically ambitious Westerners susceptible to flattery, egotism and greed.[3]

In 1996, Trump partnered with Liggett-Ducat, a small company, and planned to build an upscale residential development on a Liggett-Ducat property in Moscow. Trump commissioned New York architect Ted Liebman, who did the sketches. Trump visited Moscow again with Howard Lorber to scout potential properties for "skyscrapers and hotels".[4] During that trip, Trump promoted the proposal and acclaimed the Russian economic market. At a news conference reported by The Moscow Times, Trump said he hadn't been "as impressed with the potential of a city as I have been with Moscow" in contrast to other cities had visited "all over the world."[5]

By this time, Trump had made known his desire to build in Moscow to government officials for almost ten years "ranging from the Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev (they first met in Washington in 1987) to the military figure Alexander Lebed."[5] Moscow's mayor, Yuri M. Luzhkov, showed Trump plans for a very large shopping mall to be located underground in the vicinity of the Kremlin. The mayor complimented Trump's suggestion that this mall should have access to the Moscow Metro, and it was eventually connected to the Okhotny Ryad station. Although the 1996 residential development did not happen, Trump was by this time well known in Russia.[6]

Projects
See also: Trump Tower Moscow
See also: Felix Sater
Trump's business strategy included Russia in ventures intended to internationally expand his brand. He transitioned in the mid-2000s from building and investing in real estate to simply licensing his name to hotels, condominiums, and commercial towers. Although a strategy of taking a percentage from the sales was successful in other countries, Trump's terms were not agreeable to Russians and conflicted with their way of doing business with American hotel chains.[5][6]

From 2000 to 2010, Trump partnered with a development company headquartered in New York represented by a Russian immigrant, Felix Sater. During this period, they partnered for an assortment of deals that included building Trump towers internationally. For example, in 2005 Sater acted as an agent for building a Trump tower alongside Moscow River with letters of intent in hand and "square footage was being analyzed."[5][6]

In 2006, Trump's children Donald Jr. and Ivanka, traveling with Sater,[5][6] stayed in the Hotel National, Moscow for several days, across from the Kremlin, to see promising partners, with the intent of doing real estate development deals.[5][7][8]

Trump was associated with Tevfik Arif, formerly a Soviet commerce official and founder of a development company called the Bayrock Group, of which Sater was also a partner. Bayrock searched for deals in Russia while Trump branded towers were attempting to further expand in the United States. Sater said, "We looked at some very, very large properties in Russia," on the scale of "...a large Vegas high-rise."[5] In 2007, Bayrock organized a potential deal in Moscow between Trump International Hotel and Russian investors.[6]

During 2006–2008, Trump's company applied for a number of trademarks in Russia with the goal of real estate developments. These trademark applications include: Trump, Trump Tower, Trump International Hotel and Tower, and Trump Home.[9][10] In 2008, he said as a speaker at a Manhattan real estate conference that he feared the outcome of doing business deals in Russia, but he really prefers "Moscow over all cities in the world" and that within 18 months he had been in Russia a half-dozen times.[5][6]

In 2007, Trump announces that Trump Vodka will expand its distribution into Russia, his first foray into the Russian market.[11] Trump "Super Premium" Vodka, bottles glazed with 24-karat gold, debuted in 2007 at the Millionaire's Fair in Moscow. It was successful only until sometime in 2009. Trump attempted to create a reality show in St. Petersburg, starring a Russian athlete. However, this was not successful.[5][6]

In a 2015 interview, Trump said that his repeated attempts to launch business deals with Russians resulted in contacts with "…the top-level people, both oligarchs and generals, and top of the government people. I can't go further than that, but I will tell you that I met the top people, and the relationship was extraordinary."[5][6]

Efforts to build Trump Tower Moscow continued through June 2016, while Trump was securing his place as the Republican presidential nominee. However, Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen in 2017 told Congress that these efforts ended in January 2016, and as a result, Cohen pleaded guilty to lying to Congress in 2018.[12]

On July 9, 2019, Sater acknowledged before the House Intelligence Committee that one real estate project between Russia and Trump was falsely presented as a joint defense agreement, but withheld documents concerning direct details and phone records.[13] Following his testimony, Committee chair Patrick Boland announced "Our investigation thus far has revealed that Sater was not a part of any joint defense agreement, and has no basis to assert this privilege over these documents.”[13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_projects_of_Donald_Trump_in_Russia

That is called weaving a wicked web.
 
Hello ThatOwlWoman,

I wonder if, like his lackey #TRE45ON, he isn't listening solely to those voices who say what he wants to hear, and ignoring everyone else? It's hard to say. Putin has always seemed to be crafty and clever at amassing power unto himself; it's hard now to imagine that he has deteriorated to the point where he's throwing it all away. We are either not getting all the information about the whys of this war, or we are and we're choosing ourselves to ignore it.

Boiling it down to the simplest terms, Putin's power depends on propaganda. He cannot get himself constantly reelected without it.

Ukraine was a problem for him because the people are well educated and free to share the truth. They also have relationships with lots of Russians.

Basically, the truth was getting too close to Putin's propaganda.
 
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