Economic forecasts improve

And anyone quoting the almanac knows there are huge number going the opposite way. There Is no hard fast rule that works all the time.

Do try to convert the first sentence into English.

As for the second... I have not asserted that there is any rule that works all of the time toppy. I said they were trends. Trends that have lasted 57 years and 12 years respectively. Ignoring trends will get your ass kicked in the market. Ignoring the technicals will also get your ass kicked. Just ask those that stuck with buy and hold over the past 18 months. If you have something to demonstrate how buy and hold works well for people in a secular bear market, by all means, share it.
 
The stock market averages 10 percent a year. If your telling me you correctly time the market then I'm laughing loadly in your face. You keep buying when IRS down ie low pe and you get more shares.
 
The stock market averages 10 percent a year. If your telling me you correctly time the market then I'm laughing loadly in your face. You keep buying when IRS down ie low pe and you get more shares.

Tell us toppy... what has the stock market averaged over the last 10 years?

Don't feel bad toppy... a lot of people have been spoon fed the same line that you just spewed forth.

Again, I am not saying that any method is perfect. As I stated, our aggressive portfolio was down 5% and the moderate down 10% last year. So they still lost money. The difference dear lil toppy is that we weren't down 35-50%.

Guess what toppy... by going to cash early, we now have MORE cash to put to work when the market looks attractive.

Side note toppy... your whole... 'the stock market averages 10%' is no longer accurate as we have given up half of the gains of the bull market.

You do realize you have to factor that in dont you?

you do realize that from right here we need the market to go back up about 80% just to get back to the where we were in October 2007?
 
Superfreak tell me you used the method over the last ten years and made a killing. I'll go buy the almanac tomorrow. You constant attemps to attack me are comical. You know I didn't buy and hold the last 10 yrs. Is your personal portfolio only down 5 percent the lady year. If so I'm all ears and your way fucking smarter than me and 95 percent of investors.
 
Do you know what a forecast is? Someone sticks his finger in his butt, then in his mouth to get it damp then raises it in the air and says, "I predict rain because the wind is coming from the South". :cof1:

I have begun to wonder if the Democrats didn't manufacture this downturn late in President Bush's term simply to sink the Republicans. Okay, someone call a doctor for me as I am beginning to sound like Desh! Please... this might be terminal! After all, it couldn't have been coincidence that all of this happened with perfect timing now could it?

But, truthfully, is it possible that this could be done? I tend to think that it is possible... hell, look at how many people follow the political leaders and pundits (Rush Limbaugh) of this country word for word... (but I am not claiming it did, just wondering out loud) look at how many people simply accept the talking points from either side without so much of a question. All it would take is for Congressional stars of the party on the outside looking in to start talking down the economy making it sound worse than it really is and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. "The American Auto Industry is about to collapse... Merrill Lynch collapsed because of the credit crisis. What credit crisis? Why, the one that came about because of adjustable rate mortgages sold by banks to people who couldn't afford them... the country is doomed!!! What? whose fault is the credit crisis? Not ours, it is the other parties fault." Then in late February when a new President has been in office for a couple a months, you start talking recovery and that too becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Don't get me wrong, I realize that the economy wasn't in the greatest shape at the end of Bush's career, thanks to his uninhibited spending spree, but were we really on the brink of the Next Great Depression? Did we really "need" the auto industry and financial industry bailouts? Would the world have collapsed if we had told them sink or swim? I don't think so. The companies that have failed or might have, were poorly managed. All companies eventually collapse... yes, even Microsoft will someday go by the wayside, due to poor management most likely. But, if there is a market for their products another one will take its place.

So, what I am saying is, maybe, the Liberal Party aka Democrats (this time around, but Republicans could have done so just as easily and might in the future) and the media screamed the imminent coming of Hellfire and Brimstone in order to scare people into a mad panic to sell stocks... and once that began the snowball effect went into action. What will turn that around? March, 2009 the President begins laughing again. He institutes his very costly "spending program" consisting of lots of pork and paybacks, begins to act like he smells victory and Voila! The market begins to rise again, people begin spending again, home sales stabilize and suddenly all things are well with the American economy... America has a new President and a new majority party in both houses of Congress..."Mission Accomplished".

We Americans are lemmings. Tell me this is not possible!

All things are well with the American Economy? Are they really? Can we afford to continue to spend like drunken sailors? I'll leave those answers to you.

Immie
 
The stock market averages 10 percent a year. If your telling me you correctly time the market then I'm laughing loadly in your face. You keep buying when IRS down ie low pe and you get more shares.

I agree with Top here, but... if you can prove to me that you can accurately time the market, then by all means start an investment newsletter and sign me up as your first subscriber. :)

Immie
 
Durable goods orders are up, home sales are stabilizing, the market is going into its 3rd week of upward trend:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/25/news/economy/ucla_forecast/index.htm?postversion=2009032504

I think it's going to be awfully difficult for conservatives who bought the "Obama recession" line from Rush to now argue that his plans had nothing to do w/ the recovery.

Well don't you see Onceler?

If the economy worsens, Obama failed.

If the economy gets better, Obama overreacted.
 
I have begun to wonder if the Democrats didn't manufacture this downturn late in President Bush's term simply to sink the Republicans.
Surely you jest, if what you say were true the Democrats in their typical Democrat fashion would have screwed it up and we'd be living in an unprecedented economic boom right now and John McCain would be our President, It's only when either of the two major parties try to "fix" things do we stagger from crisis to crisis as we have been doing for most of the last decade.

In other words

Dear Santa Claus,

All I want for Christmas is for the Democrats and Republicans to stop trying to "fix" stuff and let us have some peace, quiet and sustainable prosperity for a change.

Love,

The Battered Citizenry of the United States

:D
 
Surely you jest, if what you say were true the Democrats in their typical Democrat fashion would have screwed it up and we'd be living in an unprecedented economic boom right now and John McCain would be our President, It's only when either of the two major parties try to "fix" things do we stagger from crisis to crisis as we have been doing for most of the last decade.

In other words

Dear Santa Claus,

All I want for Christmas is for the Democrats and Republicans to stop trying to "fix" stuff and let us have some peace, quiet and sustainable prosperity for a change.

Love,

The Battered Citizenry of the United States

:D

Maybe you didn't read to the end? Sorry, the post WAS a bit long for me, but at the end I said this:


All things are well with the American Economy? Are they really? Can we afford to continue to spend like drunken sailors? I'll leave those answers to you.

If they actually did what I wrote, they didn't "fix" anything. Rather, they made things worse. The repercussions would not have been felt at this point. I only pray that the Democratic Party did not stoop to such levels.

Immie
 
George Soros was one of the dems biggest supporters and he made billions last year betting on a downturn and talking the economy down. It's not so far fetched for some dems to have played along. I certainly would not accuse many of them of doing it.
Still waiting on freak, I'd love the newsletter.
 
Superfreak tell me you used the method over the last ten years and made a killing. I'll go buy the almanac tomorrow. You constant attemps to attack me are comical. You know I didn't buy and hold the last 10 yrs. Is your personal portfolio only down 5 percent the lady year. If so I'm all ears and your way fucking smarter than me and 95 percent of investors.

No, my personal portfolio finished the year down 12%. Had I used the strategy for my entire portfolio I would have been down 5%. Damo has seen the data. The 5% is a real number.

It is not that I am personally smarter than anyone. It is the investment strategy that takes emotions out of the decision on where and when to invest. But even this strategy got knocked in Oct and November of last year. It is not perfect.

If you did not buy and hold over the last ten years, then you are timing the market or at least your individual investments. The question is what data are you using to do so?

You dont even realize that you are doing the same thing, its just that the system I am using is probably a bit more refined than yours.
 
I agree with Top here, but... if you can prove to me that you can accurately time the market, then by all means start an investment newsletter and sign me up as your first subscriber. :)

Immie

If you want to see the data on what this process has done for the past several years, IM your email to me and I will send it to you.
 
George Soros was one of the dems biggest supporters and he made billions last year betting on a downturn and talking the economy down. It's not so far fetched for some dems to have played along. I certainly would not accuse many of them of doing it.
Still waiting on freak, I'd love the newsletter.

So now you are saying that people CAN make money timing the market?

What newsletter????
 
Freak I respect your knowledge and professionalism. Your attacking my skills is juvenille, but hey I may be the most juvenille on the board. Not buying the index and holding for ten years is hardly day trading. I have said over and over when the p/e got towards 22 or at least when the article about subsequent 5 year returns on high priced markets I moved most out to chevron. Last year I started moving back in. This year my new money is going into bonds cause my balls of steal are rusting.
 
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