My election prediction!

LV426 said:
He didn't show up to the second debate. He ran away from it. Then all down-ballot Republicans started running away from debates too.
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he went to both debates and like Biden held his own town hall meeting when the debate committee canceled the second......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
he went to both debates and like Biden held his own town hall meeting when the debate committee canceled the second......
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No, he refused to do the second debate.

The reason was because at the time, he was a scared, sickly, cowardly, disease-ridden ratlicker who didn't want to disclose he was positive for COVID.

A total coward.
 
Jarod said:
They cancelled the second debate because Trump* said he was not going to attend.
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Agreed. It's possible Trump's team was bluffing and their bluff was called by the commission.

https://apnews.com/article/election...gh-campaigns-705e9f19162daa9c595b7a3c03f5a8d2
Trump balked at holding the debate in that format, and Biden scheduled a town hall with ABC News for that night once Trump said he would not participate.

Trump’s team later countered with a call to hold the debates as scheduled once the president’s doctor said he would be cleared to hold public events beginning on Saturday.

But the commission said it would not reverse its decision not to have the candidates on stage together, citing an abundance of caution with health concerns — particularly for the town-hall-style debate that was set to feature questions from average voters.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I know, right?.....
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You're such a phony that you have to resort to changing what people say when you quote them.

That usually means your insecurity is just way too overwhelming.

It also means you lack the creativity to come up with responses and retorts of your own.

So painfully unoriginal.
 
Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
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nothing to discuss trump is a loser
 
I saw an election pollster who said if you gave Trump all the weird breaks he got in 2016, Biden would have 335 electoral votes.
 
Jarod said:
Seven days since I updated and seven days from today will be election day.

The slip I saw in Pennsylvania seems to have stopped and maybe even moved a bit back toward Biden. There will be a lot of polling data released this week and with it likely a lot of uncertainty. IT will be hard to tell if any of the movement will be a trend or a blip as we move toward next Tuesday but we will see.

Nothing much has changed my perspective since last weeks update. There is a path for victory for Trump* and it COULD happen.

Many have asked why I think this years polling data will be more accurate than last years... here are some of my thoughts. 1) We have an incumbent this year, and an historically unpopular one, while his base is very vocal and active they are smaller in numbers than most incumbent Presidents have enjoyed, because of that I think much shift at the end is less likely. 2) The polling data is showing MUCH less undecided voters, for that reason there is much less likelihood of later deciders breaking one way or the other enough to make a significant difference. 3) The polls have been incredibly consistent, in 2016 the polls were taking wild shifts on a weekly basis showing either candidate up and down by several points weekly, this year there has been comparably little movement.

My prediction stands, Biden will most likely win. Trump has a small chance but it would require a larger polling error than there was in 2016.

Show me where I am wrong, if you can...
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Election day, one week after my last update. Some polls show Pennsylvania getting tighter, but they are not live caller polls and some are Republican funded. I would guess Pennsylvania is still in Biden's camp considering how much early voting took place but we will see.


Trump still has a chance to win the election, but I would much rather be in Biden's shoes right now. Its very likely we will not know the results of Pennsylvania tonight or even tomorrow, but we might get a good idea, I expect Trump* to be strong in the first few waives because I think they will come from today's voting and the early numbers will come from the smaller areas. As the larger areas filter in and the early voting numbers start to come in, I suspect Biden will improve. We will see.

What we will likely know early is Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, if any one of those go for Biden, I think its game over for Trump*.

We will see, I give Trump a 15% chance, which is high, lots of things that have a 15% chance do happen. 15% is worse than the 30% Nate Silver gave Trump last time, and better than what Nate Silver is giving him today.

Nate Silver is better at this than me.
 
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Jarod said:
Election day, one week after my last update. Some polls show Pennsylvania getting tighter, but they are not live caller polls and some are Republican funded. I would guess Pennsylvania is still in Biden's camp considering how much early voting took place but we will see.

Trump still has a chance to win the election, but I would much rather be in Biden's shoes right now. Its very likely we will not know the results of Pennsylvania tonight or even tomorrow, but we might get a good idea, I expect Trump* to be strong in the first few waives because I think they will come from today's voting and the early numbers will come from the smaller areas. As the larger areas filter in and the early voting numbers start to come in, I suspect Biden will improve. We will see.

What we will likely know early is Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, if any one of those go for Biden, I think its game over for Trump*.

We will see, I give Trump a 15% chance, which is high, lots of things that have a 15% chance do happen. 15% is worse than the 30% Nate Silver gave Trump last time, and better than what Nate Silver is giving him today.
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Nate Silver said yesterday that if Trump wins NC, FL and GA then he is 50-50 to win

Huge shift huh?
 
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