My election prediction!

Joe Hiden said:
Very well. Why do you want to be told you are wrong?

You will find out in November.

But I am glad I was able to make you make a prediction
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You did not make me, I always planned to do so when it became a reasonable thing to do....

I am interested in if anyone has a compelling argument as to why I might be wrong. I don’t think I am wrong but if I am I’d like to see if anyone can explain what evidence I missed.
 
So, it seems that the Trumper’s are penning their hopes on the idea that maybe the Democrats will riot, and maybe the voters will blame Biden for that. Is there anything else?
 
Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
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You keep rolling with that "I'm with her" attitude and prepare your anus.

You are in for a world of hurt.

iu
 
Jarod said:
You did not make me, I always planned to do so when it became a reasonable thing to do....

I am interested in if anyone has a compelling argument as to why I might be wrong. I don’t think I am wrong but if I am I’d like to see if anyone can explain what evidence I missed.
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Riggghhhhht

I am shocked. I really thought you would predict a Trump victory

Oh and you are lying. You said you weren’t making a prediction.
 
Joe Hiden said:
Riggghhhhht

I am shocked. I really thought you would predict a Trump victory

Oh and you are lying. You said you weren’t making a prediction.
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Untrue- so you have no basis to argue against my prediction. I figured.
 
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