Let's go full on WORST CASE SCENARIO for Wu Flu

[Teflon Don]

Let's say worst case scenario, all 315,000,000 people in the United States contract the Wu Flu from China

We know from what has happened so far that 99% of cases are mild meaning doesn't lead to hospitalization and aren't going to die

So that means 3.15 million people will be critically ill and require hospitalization (not at the same time)

and of them if you use the high end of the mortality rate of 4% 126,000 will die

Those are the absolute worst case scenarios based on what we know right now about this virus

Could it mutate? Sure. Could it mutate into a more deadly version? Maybe

What are the odds that this happens?

Everyone relax

PS

Thingy, one doesn't have to be a healthcare expert to run the numbers.

 

[Walt]

Let's say worst case scenario, all 315,000,000 people in the United States contract the Wu Flu from China

We know from what has happened so far that 99% of cases are mild meaning doesn't lead to hospitalization and aren't going to die

So that means 3.15 million people will be critically ill and require hospitalization (not at the same time)

and of them if you use the high end of the mortality rate of 4% 126,000 will die

Those are the absolute worst case scenarios based on what we know right now about this virus

Could it mutate? Sure. Could it mutate into a more deadly version? Maybe

What are the odds that this happens?

Everyone relax

PS

Thingy, one doesn't have to be a healthcare expert to run the numbers.

Lets start with the WHO predicted numbers, which are far worse than your "worst case". They estimate that 80% have a mild symptoms, but 20% are very sick. So that would be 66 million Americans being very sick. They estimate 2% of the people who get the disease die, so that would be 6.6 million Americans dying. That is 6.6 times worse than all the US deaths in all our wars... All deaths, not just combat deaths. It would mean triple the normal deaths in this year.

But that is just the current Coronavirus (it is the Coronavirus, not the flu as you claim). The Coronavirus is a RNA virus, which means it evolves very quickly, so it might become more deadly, and can also reinfect people. So it could kill far more people, or become an annual killer of millions.

And throw into that there is some evidence that there is a residual viral load, and this could be even worse. HIV first presents itself with mild flu like symptoms that patients quickly recover from... And then they have a long slide into certain death.

But the WHO numbers are scary enough without talking about more remote risks.

 

[Legion]

Lets start with the WHO predicted numbers, which are far worse than your "worst case".

Link?

 

[Walt]

So that means 3.15 million people will be critically ill and require hospitalization (not at the same time)

If the 20% WHO estimate holds up, that is actually 66 million needing hospital beds. We can expect about one fifth to need them at any given time, so that would be 13 million beds needed. We have less than less than a million hospital beds, with over half already taken. We could setup field hospitals to take care of a million new patients, but that leaves 12 million just trying to survive without care.

Suddenly, our healthcare advantage over China vanishes. That means that we no longer get the 2% death rate, but rather the 4% or higher. Millions more die.

But that is just a worst case scenario right? Yes, and NO!!! It is the worst case scenario for this pandemic, but there is a pandemic where it will happen, again. Sooner or later, we are going to have another Spanish flu level pandemic, and we will be stuck with people starving to death because they are too sick to feed themselves.

This is a warning of what we need to be prepared for.

 

[cancel2 2022]

If the 20% WHO estimate holds up, that is actually 66 million needing hospital beds. We can expect about one fifth to need them at any given time, so that would be 13 million beds needed. We have less than less than a million hospital beds, with over half already taken. We could setup field hospitals to take care of a million new patients, but that leaves 12 million just trying to survive without care.

Suddenly, our healthcare advantage over China vanishes. That means that we no longer get the 2% death rate, but rather the 4% or higher. Millions more die.

But that is just a worst case scenario right? Yes, and NO!!! It is the worst case scenario for this pandemic, but there is a pandemic where it will happen, again. Sooner or later, we are going to have another Spanish flu level pandemic, and we will be stuck with people starving to death because they are too sick to feed themselves.

This is a warning of what we need to be prepared for.

Mr. Doom and Gloom is back with his Grim Reaper bullshit.

 

[Teflon Don]

Lets start with the WHO predicted numbers, which are far worse than your "worst case". They estimate that 80% have a mild symptoms, but 20% are very sick. So that would be 66 million Americans being very sick. They estimate 2% of the people who get the disease die, so that would be 6.6 million Americans dying. That is 6.6 times worse than all the US deaths in all our wars... All deaths, not just combat deaths. It would mean triple the normal deaths in this year.

But that is just the current Coronavirus (it is the Coronavirus, not the flu as you claim). The Coronavirus is a RNA virus, which means it evolves very quickly, so it might become more deadly, and can also reinfect people. So it could kill far more people, or become an annual killer of millions.

And throw into that there is some evidence that there is a residual viral load, and this could be even worse. HIV first presents itself with mild flu like symptoms that patients quickly recover from... And then they have a long slide into certain death.

But the WHO numbers are scary enough without talking about more remote risks.

can you provide a link to this WHO estimate you are quoting?

I will provide you a link to what is actually happening in the real world

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Now in the entire world, 92% have mild illness while 8% have severe illness.

But, if you click on the USA link, you will see that 100% of those diagnosed with Wu Flu have mild symptoms.

The common cold is a corona virus. All viruses are RNA or DNA that has zero distinction. All viruses have the capability of mutating. That is not new with COVID19.

 

[Nordberg]

Our medical system is corporate. It is set up to max profits. That is why we have no extra beds. My wife was in an emergency for hours waiting for a bed to open. It is the old keep things scarce and you can charge a lot. Do not have extra beds, they cost profits. Do not have extra equipment, they drag down profits. We should not have for-profit medical care. Businessmen cannot resist the huge amounts of money that can be made. They are concentrating on making money, not making people healthier. Medical care should be making society healthier. We have to fight with insurance companies to get care. That is because of...higher profits. What else.
We have 30 million without healthcare. Another 30 million who have copays and paydowns that prohibit them from using it. Corona testing bills are over 3000 dollars. The result is we will have millions of people with Corona walking and working amongst us. We could not have built a better system to spread a pandemic.

 

[Walt]

The common cold is a corona virus.

It really is NOT. The common cold is a rhinovirus, not a coronavirus. They are in completely different families of viruses, Picornavirus and Coronaviridae. Even in different orders, Picornavirales and Nidovirales. It would be like saying that elephants and people are the same species. We are both mammals(realm), but not even the same order.

All viruses are RNA or DNA that has zero distinction.

DNA is self correcting, so evolves over a long time. RNA is not self correcting, so evolves very quickly (over a few years, months, weeks, or even days). Basically, more than 99% of new RNA viruses are so mutated that they are not viable, but the less than 1% that are viable are very different from their mother.

All viruses have the capability of mutating. That is not new with COVID19.

As an RNA virus, we can expect it to evolve quickly if not eliminated. This means we could see annual outbreaks like the flu. It also means it could evolve around any vaccines, or even our health system, much like HIV.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Let's say worst case scenario, all 315,000,000 people in the United States contract the Wu Flu from China
We know from what has happened so far that 99% of cases are mild meaning doesn't lead to hospitalization and aren't going to die
So that means 3.15 million people will be critically ill and require hospitalization (not at the same time)
and of them if you use the high end of the mortality rate of 4% 126,000 will die

That's not worst case and I also think your figures are wrong.

First, some facts: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html
While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a reportexternal icon out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases. Older people and people of all ages with severe underlying health conditions — like heart disease, lung disease and diabetes, for example — seem to be at higher risk of developing serious COVID-19 illness.

16% severe illness is 16 times higher than your 1%.

As the link notes, it's older people and those with severe health conditions who are most at risk.

Second: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”.....more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
View attachment 14603

Obviously the general "3.4%" fatality rate is an average based on age, health and medical services. Trump, Biden and Bernie are all in the high risk category, but they are rich and have access to the best medicine the US can offer. A 70+ year old in a retirement home won't be so lucky.

There are 51M Americans over 65, 34M over 70. Using your worst case scenario where almost everyone is infected and the numbers below, that means 612,000 dead 65-69 year olds, 1.6M dead 70-79 year olds and 1.78M dead 80+ year olds for a grand total of 3.99M dead old people, about 1% of the total population. Not a big deal unless you're related to the 1%.

On the bright side, we can see this as God doing a little Spring Cleaning since most of this will be done with by Cinco de Mayo.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/

 

[Dutch Uncle]

It appears the US is on the path to go over the RW "flu deaths" number of 62,000 dead Americans by Cinco de Mayo. Today, it's 52,000 dead Americans from COVID-19 with social distancing and the states shut down. It's about 2000 dead per day. I don't expect that number to lessen, but, as states open up, it will increase.

That's not worst case and I also think your figures are wrong.

First, some facts: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html
While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a reportexternal icon out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases. Older people and people of all ages with severe underlying health conditions — like heart disease, lung disease and diabetes, for example — seem to be at higher risk of developing serious COVID-19 illness.

16% severe illness is 16 times higher than your 1%.

As the link notes, it's older people and those with severe health conditions who are most at risk.

Second: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”.....more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
View attachment 14603

Obviously the general "3.4%" fatality rate is an average based on age, health and medical services. Trump, Biden and Bernie are all in the high risk category, but they are rich and have access to the best medicine the US can offer. A 70+ year old in a retirement home won't be so lucky.

There are 51M Americans over 65, 34M over 70. Using your worst case scenario where almost everyone is infected and the numbers below, that means 612,000 dead 65-69 year olds, 1.6M dead 70-79 year olds and 1.78M dead 80+ year olds for a grand total of 3.99M dead old people, about 1% of the total population. Not a big deal unless you're related to the 1%.

On the bright side, we can see this as God doing a little Spring Cleaning since most of this will be done with by Cinco de Mayo.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/

 

[Walt]

Let's go full on WORST CASE SCENARIO for Wu Flu

The worst case scenario is that Covid-19 viral loads remain in the body even after the initial illness, much like HIV. That would mean that all of humanity has years of fighting a disease, and slowly losing. The worst case scenario is extinction of humanity.

We know from what has happened so far that 99% of cases are mild meaning doesn't lead to hospitalization and aren't going to die So that means 3.15 million people will be critically ill and require hospitalization (not at the same time) and of them if you use the high end of the mortality rate of 4% 126,000 will die

You are taking percents of percents, which does not makes sense, and making extreme assumptions. Lets say 75% of Americans get it, that is 240 million. 80% (not 99%) do not need hospitalization. 5% of the people who get it need an ICU, so that is 12 million people needing an ICU. If they do not get it, then lets say 80% die (giving the 4% mortality that everyone is afraid of).

That is 10 million dead.

THERE IS NO WAY TO GET 126,000 AS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THAT IS THE BEST CASE SCENARIO!!!

 

[Teflon Don]

The worst case scenario is that Covid-19 viral loads remain in the body even after the initial illness, much like HIV. That would mean that all of humanity has years of fighting a disease, and slowly losing. The worst case scenario is extinction of humanity.



You are taking percents of percents, which does not makes sense, and making extreme assumptions. Lets say 75% of Americans get it, that is 240 million. 80% (not 99%) do not need hospitalization. 5% of the people who get it need an ICU, so that is 12 million people needing an ICU. If they do not get it, then lets say 80% die (giving the 4% mortality that everyone is afraid of).

That is 10 million dead.

THERE IS NO WAY TO GET 126,000 AS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THAT IS THE BEST CASE SCENARIO!!!

Fuck it. Here is hoping for worst case because clearly it is impacting blue states harder. So yeah worst case bring it on

 

[Dutch Uncle]

The worst case scenario is that Covid-19 viral loads remain in the body even after the initial illness, much like HIV. That would mean that all of humanity has years of fighting a disease, and slowly losing. The worst case scenario is extinction of humanity.



You are taking percents of percents, which does not makes sense, and making extreme assumptions. Lets say 75% of Americans get it, that is 240 million. 80% (not 99%) do not need hospitalization. 5% of the people who get it need an ICU, so that is 12 million people needing an ICU. If they do not get it, then lets say 80% die (giving the 4% mortality that everyone is afraid of).

That is 10 million dead.

THERE IS NO WAY TO GET 126,000 AS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THAT IS THE BEST CASE SCENARIO!!!

Fuck it. Here is hoping for worst case because clearly it is impacting blue states harder. So yeah worst case bring it on

Wow, Don! A temper tantrum and a Straw Man Argument all wrapped up in three short, concise sentences. Well done, sir!

Obviously intelligent, educated and sane people know that, regardless of population size, the death rate in all the states will be about the same for similar conditions. The big caveat being population density.

The idiots who think we'd all be better off nuking NYC, Chicago and LA are finding out what the economy looks like when that effectively happens.

 

[Teflon Don]

Wow, Don! A temper tantrum and a Straw Man Argument all wrapped up in three short, concise sentences. Well done, sir!

Obviously intelligent, educated and sane people know that, regardless of population size, the death rate in all the states will be about the same for similar conditions. The big caveat being population density.

The idiots who think we'd all be better off nuking NYC, Chicago and LA are finding out what the economy looks like when that effectively happens.

Ahhh yes the whole population density excuse yet all the states without the population density have to go by NY

Let em all die from the wuhan virus

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Ahhh yes the whole population density excuse yet all the states without the population density have to go by NY

Let em all die from the wuhan virus

What kind of pussified state are you living? Here's some advice: when they let you, you pack up and leave.

That's the only solution our nation has; open up the country and take the 1%-3% hit.

 

[Teflon Don]

What kind of pussified state are you living? Here's some advice: when they let you, you pack up and leave.

That's the only solution our nation has; open up the country and take the 1%-3% hit.

I am good with it. I am enjoying watching these blue states decrease in population right before the census

We need more infected and more dead up there. I want to hit the original projections. I hope they find no drugs and no vaccine.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

I am good with it. I am enjoying watching these blue states decrease in population right before the census

We need more infected and more dead up there. I want to hit the original projections. I hope they find no drugs and no vaccine.

Plague is a great equalizer. It's indiscriminate. In the future we can call 2020 "The Balancing".

Trump is doing his best to grant you were wish. Just remember, it's indiscriminate; the weak will die regardless of wealth or party.

 

[Teflon Don]

Plague is a great equalizer. It's indiscriminate. In the future we can call 2020 "The Balancing".

Trump is doing his best to grant you were wish. Just remember, it's indiscriminate; the weak will die regardless of wealth or party.

More dead New Yorkers = good

God is making them pay for their sins

 

[Dutch Uncle]

More dead New Yorkers = good

God is making them pay for their sins

You and PmP are the same type of "Christian".

Be sure to remember those words of you saying anyone who dies of COVID-19 is because God is making them pay. Awesome.

 

[Mason Michaels]

More dead New Yorkers = good

God is making them pay for their sins

You a self appointed Prophet?