Centerleftfl
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Okay, -1 (we need more thread TITLE space)
Interesting, VERY INTERESTING! I think we should call it the 2ND WAVE.
PS Unfortunately she can't factor in RUSSIANS!
PSS Notice the highlighted paragraph, she gets NO credit nor even mentioned. Anyway here heard of her or read her? Maybe it's because 'she' is a GIRL.
Does anyone understand the 2020 race? This scholar nailed the blue wave — here's her forecast
Rachel Bitecofer predicted last year's midterms with incredible accuracy. Her 2020 forecast is ... not too bad
PAUL ROSENBERG
AUGUST 17, 2019 4:25PM (UTC)
These are tough times for independent journalism. If you value Salon's original reporting and commentary, we urge you to support it — by supporting our writers directly. Right here, right now, you can make a financial contribution to help make Paul Rosenberg's work possible. Every dollar you donate goes straight to the writer you choose — Salon doesn’t take a cut.In July 2018, the most widely respected analysts were decidedly uncertain whether the Democrats could retake the House. On July 6, Cook Political Report, for example, listed 180 seats as "solid" for Democrats, with 12 likely/lean and 3 "toss-up or worse." If the Democrats won all of those and the 22 GOP-held seats described as "toss-ups" — they'd still be one seat short of a majority, at 217.
But on July 1, newcomer Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, released her prediction of a 42-seat "blue wave," while also citing the Arizona and Texas U.S. Senate races as “toss-ups.” Her startling prediction was numerically close to perfect; Democrats will end up with a gain of 40 or 41 seats, depending how the re-run in North Carolina's 9th district turns out. (Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won the Arizona Senate race, in a major historical shift, and Beto O'Rourke came close in Texas.) Furthermore, she even strutted a little, writing on Nov. 2 that she hadn't adjusted her seat count, but that “the last few months have been about filling in the blanks on which specific seats will flip.” Her resulting list of those was also close to perfect.
With a record like that, you’d think that Bitecofer's explanation of what happened would have drawn universal attention and become common sense — but you’d be sadly mistaken. She’s barely beginning to get the recognition she deserves, and more troubling for the country, the outdated assumptions her model dispensed with continue to cloud the thinking of pundits and Democratic Party leadership alike. (Follow her on Twitter here.)
This hampers efforts to counter Donald Trump’s destructive impact on a daily basis, and spreads confusion about both Democratic prospects and strategy in the 2020 election prospects. Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support (aka winning back "Trump voters") fuels an illusory search for an ill-defined middle ground that could actually demobilize the Democratic leaners and voters who actually drove last year's blue wave...
https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/th...d-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/
Interesting, VERY INTERESTING! I think we should call it the 2ND WAVE.
PS Unfortunately she can't factor in RUSSIANS!
PSS Notice the highlighted paragraph, she gets NO credit nor even mentioned. Anyway here heard of her or read her? Maybe it's because 'she' is a GIRL.
Does anyone understand the 2020 race? This scholar nailed the blue wave — here's her forecast
Rachel Bitecofer predicted last year's midterms with incredible accuracy. Her 2020 forecast is ... not too bad
AUGUST 17, 2019 4:25PM (UTC)
These are tough times for independent journalism. If you value Salon's original reporting and commentary, we urge you to support it — by supporting our writers directly. Right here, right now, you can make a financial contribution to help make Paul Rosenberg's work possible. Every dollar you donate goes straight to the writer you choose — Salon doesn’t take a cut.In July 2018, the most widely respected analysts were decidedly uncertain whether the Democrats could retake the House. On July 6, Cook Political Report, for example, listed 180 seats as "solid" for Democrats, with 12 likely/lean and 3 "toss-up or worse." If the Democrats won all of those and the 22 GOP-held seats described as "toss-ups" — they'd still be one seat short of a majority, at 217.
But on July 1, newcomer Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, released her prediction of a 42-seat "blue wave," while also citing the Arizona and Texas U.S. Senate races as “toss-ups.” Her startling prediction was numerically close to perfect; Democrats will end up with a gain of 40 or 41 seats, depending how the re-run in North Carolina's 9th district turns out. (Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won the Arizona Senate race, in a major historical shift, and Beto O'Rourke came close in Texas.) Furthermore, she even strutted a little, writing on Nov. 2 that she hadn't adjusted her seat count, but that “the last few months have been about filling in the blanks on which specific seats will flip.” Her resulting list of those was also close to perfect.
With a record like that, you’d think that Bitecofer's explanation of what happened would have drawn universal attention and become common sense — but you’d be sadly mistaken. She’s barely beginning to get the recognition she deserves, and more troubling for the country, the outdated assumptions her model dispensed with continue to cloud the thinking of pundits and Democratic Party leadership alike. (Follow her on Twitter here.)
This hampers efforts to counter Donald Trump’s destructive impact on a daily basis, and spreads confusion about both Democratic prospects and strategy in the 2020 election prospects. Above all, the mistaken belief that Democrats won in 2018 by gaining Republican support (aka winning back "Trump voters") fuels an illusory search for an ill-defined middle ground that could actually demobilize the Democratic leaners and voters who actually drove last year's blue wave...
https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/th...d-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/
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