Obama still ahead in polls
- Thread starter ib1yysguy
- Start date
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
I agree with you.
Had Obama been able to pull off the landslide I thought he could have done there would be no opportunity for republicans to steal the election .. given that the election must be close enough to steal .. but now that it appears it's going to be razor thin .. don't count out Diebold.
... and the Bradley/Wilder effect.
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The Almighty
Take a look at 270towin.com
Right now, I would put the electoral vote at 273 Obama, 265 McCain
Which would give McCain, FL, OH, VA, NC, NV, MO
and Obama PA, MI, MN, CO, NM, NH
Obviously these are all swing states and thus could swing either way. The above are simply the way I think they will go based on what we know today.
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The Almighty
Megan would be the most qualified among them. I see her as a Sec of State, because she is REALLY good at getting other people to do what she wants them to, whether it is in their best interest or not.
blackascoal
The Force is With Me
Obama's bounce smaller than others
Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it's gradually depreciating.
The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic convention, according to Gallup.
That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul, and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.
Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned may have already peaked.
On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.
CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama.
But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.
There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will not be known for days.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.
Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in the presidential race.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/13068
Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it's gradually depreciating.
The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic convention, according to Gallup.
That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul, and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.
Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned may have already peaked.
On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.
CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama.
But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.
There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will not be known for days.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.
Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in the presidential race.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/13068
Yeah, Ok. Well anyway, here’s the real news: Independents are moving away from McCain. Here is how the Palin pick is playing out right now. He’s losing women. (no surprise). He’s gaining men (well, a woman holding a giant, phallic shaped gun IS considered redneck porn, so…), and independents are less likely to vote for him because of the pick by close to 70%. ( I think 67 percent was the exact # in the first polling I saw, the day after the pick, and that was BEFORE all of the shit hit about her). Independents don’t believe she is experienced enough, sorry SF.
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The Almighty
Do you recall which of those polls had those numbers on Independents?
Actually, I thought it was the initial rasmussin one? If not, had to be the gallop. It was actually the only poll I’ve seen yet done solely on Palin. I will try and find it today. It was interesting.
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The Almighty
I looked at the Gallup and Rasmussen reports, as well as CBS. I did not see one on Ras or Gallup. CBS had one on Palin solely, but it showed that 69% didn't know enough about her to make a decision. I would definitely like to see yours if you can find it. Thanks.
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The Almighty
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...neral_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls
As I thought... the Gallup/USA today poll also uses "likely" voters and has Obama up seven vs. Rasmussens six and the pure Gallops eight.