The Republicans are engaged in their usual two-step swindle. Step one, they give massive tax handouts to the rich and spending increases for their buddies in the military industries. Step two, they say the resulting run-up in debt requires austerity measures to be taken when it comes to programs that regular Americans rely on, like Social Security and Medicare. Mitch McConnell insists that cuts to those things are needed, because they're what's causing the problem. Let's test that rhetoric.
Here's what the budget projections looked like the day Trump took office:
https://web.archive.org/web/2017012...hitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget/Historicals
Here they are now:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/
As you can see, when Trump was coming in, the anticipated gross federal debt, as of FY 2019 (the fiscal year we're currently in) was 103.2% of GDP and falling. But now it's 108.1% and rising. Clearly, things have taken a turn for the worse. But why?
Well, dig into the numbers and you'll see it isn't Medicare. When Obama left office, Medicare spending for FY 2019 was projected to be $663 billion. Now it's estimated at $631 billion. Medicare has actually wound up being about 5% cheaper than we were expecting it would be, back when we thought debt would now be lower as a share of GDP (and dropping).
It's not Social Security, either. Back when Trump was sworn in, we were projecting that Social Security would cost us $1.095 trillion this year, where now it looks like it'll cost $1.052 trillion. Again, Social Security is proving to be about 4% cheaper than we thought it would be, back when we thought debt would now be lower and falling.
It's not other social spending, either. For example, back when Trump first took office, the projection was that in FY 2019 we'd spend $127.9 billion on "education, training, employment, and social services." Now it looks like we'll spend $100.6 billion. That part of the budget is expected to be about 21% less expensive than previously anticipated. We're also on track to spend a lot less than we anticipated on income security, energy, natural resources and the environment, transportation, agriculture, and just about every other area of domestic spending.
So, why is it that debt is significantly higher than expected, and rising, when previously we thought by now we'd have a manageable and improving situation? Well, there are a couple reasons, neither of which have anything to do with the stuff Republicans want to talk about.
One is that our military spending -- which was already anticipated to be preposterous high -- has risen still higher. We're on track to spend about 15% more on "national defense" this year than we had anticipated (despite having anticipated a budget that would already have more than doubled the spending of all our potential adversaries combined). Veterans spending is also up a bit.
The big change, though, was from the tax cuts. Back when Trump came to office, we were projecting $4.095 trillion in receipts for FY 2019. Now we're on track for $3.422 trillion. That $673 billion shortfall more than accounts for the difference between where we thought our debt situation would be and where it is. Even as the government has become stingier and stingier when it comes to middle-class American needs, deficits have sky-rocketed, because of the tax changes.
Specifically, individual income tax receipts are down by a little over 15% compared to where they were projected to be (with the VAST majority of the change impacting the very wealthy), and corporate income tax receipts are down by a little over 57% compared to projections. Excise taxes have also plummeted, relative to projections, by about 29%. That last category includes a drop in taxes collected in relation to Obamacare (e.g., taxes on tanning services and medical devices), as well as a huge (56%) drop in excise taxes on tobacco, relative to the earlier 2019 projections.
So, don't fall for the Republican bullshit. The reason our debt is rising isn't because of Social Security and Medicare, much less other social spending programs. We're spending considerably less on those things than was projected, and yet we've moved from debt being a falling share of GDP, to it rising rapidly. That's about Republican-backed changes: higher military expenditures and lower taxes, especially for corporations and the wealthy.
Unfortunately, most political and budget reporters are innumerate. They didn't learn basic math in j-school, so they'll take the lazy way out and report this as a he-said, she-said thing. Effectively, they'll just be transcriptionists for the party leaders' respective talking points. But the budget numbers and history are available at the links I provided. You can follow up on your own and confirm what I've said. Medicare and Social Security are even more affordable now than we thought they'd be, but reckless upper-class tax cutting and obscene military overspend have broken the budget.
Here's what the budget projections looked like the day Trump took office:
https://web.archive.org/web/2017012...hitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget/Historicals
Here they are now:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/
As you can see, when Trump was coming in, the anticipated gross federal debt, as of FY 2019 (the fiscal year we're currently in) was 103.2% of GDP and falling. But now it's 108.1% and rising. Clearly, things have taken a turn for the worse. But why?
Well, dig into the numbers and you'll see it isn't Medicare. When Obama left office, Medicare spending for FY 2019 was projected to be $663 billion. Now it's estimated at $631 billion. Medicare has actually wound up being about 5% cheaper than we were expecting it would be, back when we thought debt would now be lower as a share of GDP (and dropping).
It's not Social Security, either. Back when Trump was sworn in, we were projecting that Social Security would cost us $1.095 trillion this year, where now it looks like it'll cost $1.052 trillion. Again, Social Security is proving to be about 4% cheaper than we thought it would be, back when we thought debt would now be lower and falling.
It's not other social spending, either. For example, back when Trump first took office, the projection was that in FY 2019 we'd spend $127.9 billion on "education, training, employment, and social services." Now it looks like we'll spend $100.6 billion. That part of the budget is expected to be about 21% less expensive than previously anticipated. We're also on track to spend a lot less than we anticipated on income security, energy, natural resources and the environment, transportation, agriculture, and just about every other area of domestic spending.
So, why is it that debt is significantly higher than expected, and rising, when previously we thought by now we'd have a manageable and improving situation? Well, there are a couple reasons, neither of which have anything to do with the stuff Republicans want to talk about.
One is that our military spending -- which was already anticipated to be preposterous high -- has risen still higher. We're on track to spend about 15% more on "national defense" this year than we had anticipated (despite having anticipated a budget that would already have more than doubled the spending of all our potential adversaries combined). Veterans spending is also up a bit.
The big change, though, was from the tax cuts. Back when Trump came to office, we were projecting $4.095 trillion in receipts for FY 2019. Now we're on track for $3.422 trillion. That $673 billion shortfall more than accounts for the difference between where we thought our debt situation would be and where it is. Even as the government has become stingier and stingier when it comes to middle-class American needs, deficits have sky-rocketed, because of the tax changes.
Specifically, individual income tax receipts are down by a little over 15% compared to where they were projected to be (with the VAST majority of the change impacting the very wealthy), and corporate income tax receipts are down by a little over 57% compared to projections. Excise taxes have also plummeted, relative to projections, by about 29%. That last category includes a drop in taxes collected in relation to Obamacare (e.g., taxes on tanning services and medical devices), as well as a huge (56%) drop in excise taxes on tobacco, relative to the earlier 2019 projections.
So, don't fall for the Republican bullshit. The reason our debt is rising isn't because of Social Security and Medicare, much less other social spending programs. We're spending considerably less on those things than was projected, and yet we've moved from debt being a falling share of GDP, to it rising rapidly. That's about Republican-backed changes: higher military expenditures and lower taxes, especially for corporations and the wealthy.
Unfortunately, most political and budget reporters are innumerate. They didn't learn basic math in j-school, so they'll take the lazy way out and report this as a he-said, she-said thing. Effectively, they'll just be transcriptionists for the party leaders' respective talking points. But the budget numbers and history are available at the links I provided. You can follow up on your own and confirm what I've said. Medicare and Social Security are even more affordable now than we thought they'd be, but reckless upper-class tax cutting and obscene military overspend have broken the budget.
