Global warming is likely to speed up

Micawber

Verified User
Global warming is likely to speed up as the Earth becomes increasingly more sensitive to atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, scientists from the University of Reading have warned.

In a new study, published this week in the prestigious journal PNAS, the scientists explain that the influence of increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 on global warming will become more severe over time because the patterns of warming of the Earth's surface will lead to reduced cloud cover in some sensitive regions and less heat being able to escape into space.
The findings are supported by observations, suggesting that forecasts made by climate models evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are realistic.
Paulo Ceppi, researcher at the University of Reading and lead author of the study, said: "This resemblance of computer simulations to observations increases our confidence in projections that the climate sensitivity to the progressive rise in carbon dioxide concentrations will increase over time into the future."
Evidence suggests that the upper level of the Earth's atmosphere warms faster than the surface in response to CO2 levels. However, the new study shows that as CO2 levels increase further, the rate of warming in the upper levels slows in comparison with that closer to the Earth's surface.
Reduced contrast in temperature between the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere causes decreased low altitude cloud cover over some areas of the Earth's oceans, leading to more sunlight reaching the sea surface, and therefore a more rapid rise in sea surface temperatures.
These conditions also impede the loss of heat from the atmosphere into space, contributing to the accelerated surface warming in response to rising CO2 concentrations.

These results emphasise the importance of rapidly reducing human caused emissions of greenhouse gases to avoid the worst impacts from ongoing climate change as discussed at the recent COP23 meeting in Bonn that builds upon the 2017 Paris climate agreement.


Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-11-global-co2.html#jCp

A lot of findings there. It's a bit chewy to get through so I don't expect any Republican science denier to hold the thoughts together at at once in the underscored section.

I do, however, expect shape shifting cornholio abraxas whatever he may be calling himself to try and kill the messenger with a blog, some oil funded think tank or otherwise.
He will be joined by Big Hog who will say the earth was hotter eons ago and yet protozoa thrived and that drastic change is awesome anyway, then enter stage right the perennial tag team trolls
Morwr and adroitless to simply set forth some insults.
 
Hate to say it, but I think we just have to prepare for living in a new environment. Not that we shouldn't transition to cleaner energy for a variety of other reasons, but we can't really "stop" or even slow climate change at this point.
 
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Hate to say it, but I think we just have to prepare for living in a new environment. Not that we shouldn't transition to cleaner energy for a variety of other reasons, but we can't really "stop" or even slow climate change at this point.

Many real climate scientists are getting close to agreeing with your suspicion, sadly.
 
Many real climate scientists are getting close to agreeing with your suspicion, sadly.

It was always going to be tough. No way to know how much man is contributing, but I've read even AGW scientists who say that even if the entire world went cold turkey, it might be 1,000 years + before we notice any difference in the atmosphere.

And that wasn't going to happen, anyway. At best, leaders were talking about modest reductions in emissions, which would really barely keep up w/ population and usage increases. It's a losing battle.
 
Hate to say it, but I think we just have to prepare for living in a new environment. Not that we shouldn't transition to cleaner energy for a variety of other reasons, but we can't really "stop" or even slow climate change at this point.

Climate hasnt changed for 23 years.
 
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Hate to say it, but I think we just have to prepare for living in a new environment. Not that we shouldn't transition to cleaner energy for a variety of other reasons, but we can't really "stop" or even slow climate change at this point.
It would have been better if we started to prepare for it 40 years ago.
 
Many real climate scientists are getting close to agreeing with your suspicion, sadly.

Yet you still refuse to voluntarily stop breathing and emitting the very thing you agree is causing the problem. Tells me you really don't believe it.
 
OP: ...will lead to reduced cloud cover in some sensitive regions and less heat being able to escape into space.

Fewer clouds would allow more IR to escape. Clouds prevent IR from escaping. Also a warmer world would lead to more water vapor and an eventual increase in cloud cover due to condensation.

Your information is totally backwards.

Let me find some links
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fcst/tmps/cld.rxml
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/outreach/education/science/clouds_and_climate.html
 
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Hate to say it, but I think we just have to prepare for living in a new environment. Not that we shouldn't transition to cleaner energy for a variety of other reasons, but we can't really "stop" or even slow climate change at this point.

We never had the ability to stop climate change. While there is a lot we can do to clean up the air, water and ground, the belief that we can control the temperature of the planet with so many variables out of our control was either arrogance or ignorance.
 


Global warming has not accelerated temperature rise in the bulk atmosphere in more than two decades, according to a new study funded by the Department of Energy.

University of Alabama-Huntsville climate scientists John Christy and Richard McNider found that by removing the climate effects of volcanic eruptions early on in the satellite temperature record it showed virtually no change in the rate of warming since the early 1990s.

“We indicated 23 years ago — in our 1994 Nature article — that climate models had the atmosphere’s sensitivity to CO2 much too high,” Christy said in a statement. “This recent paper bolsters that conclusion.”

Christy and McNider found the rate of warming has been 0.096 degrees Celsius per decade after “the removal of volcanic cooling in the early part of the record,” which “is essentially the same value we determined in 1994 … using only 15 years of data.”

The study is sure to be contentious. Christy has argued for years that climate models exaggerate global warming in the bulk atmosphere, which satellites have monitored since the late 1970s.

Christy, a noted skeptic of catastrophic man-made global warming, said his results reinforce his claim that climate models predict too much warming in the troposphere, the lowest five miles of the atmosphere. Models are too sensitive to increases in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, he said.

“From our observations, we calculated that value as 1.1 C (almost 2° Fahrenheit), while climate models estimate that value as 2.3 C (about 4.1° F),” Christy said.

While many scientists have acknowledged the mismatch between model predictions and actual temperature observations, few have really challenged the validity of the models themselves.

A recent study led by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientist Ben Santer found that while the models ran hot, the “overestimation” was “partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.”

Christy’s removal of volcanic-driven cooling from satellite temperature data could also draw scrutiny. The study also removed El Nino and La Nina cycles, which are particularly pronounced in satellite records, but those cycles largely canceled each other out, the co-authors said.

Christy said his works shows the “climate models need to be retooled to better reflect conditions in the actual climate, while policies based on previous climate model output and predictions might need to be reconsidered.”

Two major volcanoes — El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991 — caused the global average temperature to dip as a result of volcanic ash, soot, and debris reflecting sunlight back into space.

Those eruptions meant there was more subsequent warming in the following years, making the rate of warming appear to be rising as a result of man-made emissions or other factors, Christy said.

“Those eruptions happened relatively early in our study period, which pushed down temperatures in the first part of the dataset, which caused the overall record to show an exaggerated warming trend,” Christy said.

“While volcanic eruptions are natural events, it was the timing of these that had such a noticeable effect on the trend. If the same eruptions had happened near the more recent end of the dataset, they could have pushed the overall trend into negative numbers or a long-term cooling,” Christy said.

https://climatechangedispatch.com/s...eleration-in-global-warming-for-23-years/amp/
 
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We never had the ability to stop climate change. While there is a lot we can do to clean up the air, water and ground, the belief that we can control the temperature of the planet with so many variables out of our control was either arrogance or ignorance.

Disagree. And I'll also be on the side that wants to fight the alien invaders despite their vast superiority basically guaranteeing their victory. You will resign yourself , welcome the alien overlords and become a lap-larva to the
antlike queen.

Id rather die on my feet than live on my knees! Fight global warming with every last rich person's dollar!
 
So if we change the observations to remove greenhouse gasses we know existed, the numbers would say what we want. Thanks for that.

They removed natural variation that could be estimated, not greenhouse gasses. You don't seem to be able to comprehend what you read.
 
Disagree. And I'll also be on the side that wants to fight the alien invaders despite their vast superiority basically guaranteeing their victory. You will resign yourself , welcome the alien overlords and become a lap-larva to the
antlike queen.

Id rather die on my feet than live on my knees! Fight global warming with every last rich person's dollar!

You do live on your knees. And for chrisakes, at least get a bib.
 
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