As recently as a year ago, United States and other Western counterterrorism officials feared that a major surge of Islamic State fighters would return home to Europe and North Africa to commit mayhem after being driven out of their strongholds in Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria.
Now, those cities have fallen to American-backed forces, but the number of combat-hardened returnees has been much smaller than anticipated, if still worrisome, counterterrorism officials say. That is in part because the Trump administration intensified its focus on preventing fighters from seeping out of those cities, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/02/...close-to-trapping-isis-holdouts-in-raqqa.html
and more militants fought to the death than expected. Hundreds also surrendered in Raqqa, and
ssome probably escaped to new battlegrounds in Libya or the Philippines.
Some 40,000 fighters from more than 120 countries poured into the battles in Syria and Iraq over the past four years, American officials say. Of the more than 5,000 Europeans who joined those ranks, as many as 1,500 have returned home, including many women and children, and most of the rest are dead or still fighting, according to Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union’s top counterterrorism official.
To be sure, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, still poses a threat to Western countries, perhaps chiefly in the form of militants who are inspired or enabled by the group to attack at home, as evidenced by the recent attacks in Britain and Barcelona, officials say.
But a combination of factors has suppressed the flow of militants returning from war zones. Many died after allied and local forces cut off most escape routes from Raqqa and Mosul. Since the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 and Brussels last year, European nations have tightened border security and increased surveillance. Others are believed to be bottled up in third countries like Turkey.
As it becomes harder for the Islamic State to plan attacks from Iraq and Syria, some plotters may have also moved to the Philippines or to Libya. The bomber who killed 22 people at a pop concert in Manchester, England, in May had met in Libya with members of an Islamic State unit linked to the Paris attacks, according to current and retired intelligence officials.
“We’re worried as the campaign in eastern Syria and Iraq winds down, we’ll continue to see fighters move into” Libya and northern Africa, Mike Pompeo, the C.I.A. director, said at a security conference at the University of Texas this month.
Several American and European officials also voiced concern about Turkey, a country that has the trappings of a modern state but where the Islamic State has been allowed to operate almost unchecked, until recently.
even as Turkish authorities have increased security along their border with Syria, the center of gravity of foreign fighters is shifting to Turkish cities like Sanliurfa and Gaziantep, where the Islamic State has carried out executions of Syrian activists and journalists with what appears to be impunity.
If the Islamic State fighters regroup in Turkey, they can return in small groups to Europe or elsewhere via the old refugee route, which is less fluid than it was but still penetrable. A Belgian was recently arrested in Turkey, suspected of plotting a terrorist attack there, after spending years in Syria.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/us/politics/fewer-isis-fighters-returning-home.html
Now, those cities have fallen to American-backed forces, but the number of combat-hardened returnees has been much smaller than anticipated, if still worrisome, counterterrorism officials say. That is in part because the Trump administration intensified its focus on preventing fighters from seeping out of those cities, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/02/...close-to-trapping-isis-holdouts-in-raqqa.html
and more militants fought to the death than expected. Hundreds also surrendered in Raqqa, and
ssome probably escaped to new battlegrounds in Libya or the Philippines.
Some 40,000 fighters from more than 120 countries poured into the battles in Syria and Iraq over the past four years, American officials say. Of the more than 5,000 Europeans who joined those ranks, as many as 1,500 have returned home, including many women and children, and most of the rest are dead or still fighting, according to Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union’s top counterterrorism official.
To be sure, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, still poses a threat to Western countries, perhaps chiefly in the form of militants who are inspired or enabled by the group to attack at home, as evidenced by the recent attacks in Britain and Barcelona, officials say.
But a combination of factors has suppressed the flow of militants returning from war zones. Many died after allied and local forces cut off most escape routes from Raqqa and Mosul. Since the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 and Brussels last year, European nations have tightened border security and increased surveillance. Others are believed to be bottled up in third countries like Turkey.
As it becomes harder for the Islamic State to plan attacks from Iraq and Syria, some plotters may have also moved to the Philippines or to Libya. The bomber who killed 22 people at a pop concert in Manchester, England, in May had met in Libya with members of an Islamic State unit linked to the Paris attacks, according to current and retired intelligence officials.
“We’re worried as the campaign in eastern Syria and Iraq winds down, we’ll continue to see fighters move into” Libya and northern Africa, Mike Pompeo, the C.I.A. director, said at a security conference at the University of Texas this month.
Several American and European officials also voiced concern about Turkey, a country that has the trappings of a modern state but where the Islamic State has been allowed to operate almost unchecked, until recently.
even as Turkish authorities have increased security along their border with Syria, the center of gravity of foreign fighters is shifting to Turkish cities like Sanliurfa and Gaziantep, where the Islamic State has carried out executions of Syrian activists and journalists with what appears to be impunity.
If the Islamic State fighters regroup in Turkey, they can return in small groups to Europe or elsewhere via the old refugee route, which is less fluid than it was but still penetrable. A Belgian was recently arrested in Turkey, suspected of plotting a terrorist attack there, after spending years in Syria.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/us/politics/fewer-isis-fighters-returning-home.html
