and later Medicare and Medicaid). See Post-World War II economic expansion for further discussion.
Name
Dates
Duration (months)
Time since previous recession (months)
Peak unemploy*ment
GDP decline (peak to trough)
Characteristics
Great Depression
Aug 1929*–
Mar 1933
3 years
7 months
1 year
9 months
24.9%[31]
(1933)
−26.7%
Stock markets crashed worldwide. A banking collapse took place in the United States. Extensive new tariffs and other factors contributed to an extremely deep depression. The United States remained in a depression until World War II. In 1936, unemployment fell to 16.9%, but later returned to 19% in 1938 (near 1933 levels).
Recession of 1937–1938
May 1937*–
June 1938
1 year 1 month
4 years
2 months
19.0%[32]
(1938)
−18.2%
The Recession of 1937 is only considered minor when compared to the Great Depression, but is otherwise among the worst recessions of the 20th century. Three explanations are offered as causes for the recession: the tight fiscal policy resulting from an attempt to balance the budget after New Deal spending, the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the declining profits of businesses led to a reduction in business investment.[33]
Recession of 1945
Feb–Oct 1945
8 months
6 years
8 months
5.2%[32]
(1946)
−12.7%
The decline in government spending at the end of World War II led to an enormous drop in gross domestic product, making this technically a recession. This was the result of demobilization and the shift from a wartime to peacetime economy. The post-war years were unusual in a number of ways (unemployment was never high) and this era may be considered a "sui generis end-of-the-war recession".[34]
Recession of 1949
Nov 1948*–
Oct 1949
11 months
3 years
1 month
7.9%
(Oct 1949)
−1.7%
The 1948 recession was a brief economic downturn; forecasters of the time expected much worse, perhaps influenced by the poor economy in their recent lifetimes.[35] The recession also followed a period of monetary tightening.[29]
Recession of 1953
July 1953*–
May 1954
10 months
3 years
9 months
6.1%
(Sep 1954)
−2.6%
After a post-Korean War inflationary period, more funds were transferred to national security. In 1951, the Federal Reserve reasserted its independence from the U.S. Treasury and in 1952, the Federal Reserve changed monetary policy to be more restrictive because of fears of further inflation or of a bubble forming.[29][36][37]
Recession of 1958
Aug 1957*–
April 1958
8 months
3 years
3 months
7.5%
(July 1958)
−3.7%
Monetary policy was tightened during the two years preceding 1957, followed by an easing of policy at the end of 1957. The budget balance resulted in a change in budget surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 1957 to a budget deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 1958, and then to 2.6% of GDP in 1959.[29]
Recession of 1960–61
Apr 1960*–
Feb 1961
10 months
2 years
7.1%
(May 1961)
−1.6%
Another primarily monetary recession occurred after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 1959. The government switched from deficit (or 2.6% in 1959) to surplus (of 0.1% in 1960). When the economy emerged from this short recession, it began the second-longest period of growth in NBER history.[29] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) finally reached its lowest point on Feb. 20, 1961, about 4 weeks after President Kennedy was inaugurated.
Recession of 1969–70
Dec 1969*–
Nov 1970
11 months
8 years
10 months
6.1%
(Dec 1970)
−0.6%
The relatively mild 1969 recession followed a lengthy expansion. At the end of the expansion, inflation was rising, possibly a result of increased deficits. This relatively mild recession coincided with an attempt to start closing the budget deficits of the Vietnam War (fiscal tightening) and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates (monetary tightening).[29]
1973–75 recession
Nov 1973*–
Mar 1975
1 year
4 months
3 years
9.0%
(May 1975)
−3.2%
A quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC coupled with high government spending because of the Vietnam War led to stagflation in the United States.[38] The period was also marked by the 1973 oil crisis and the 1973–1974 stock market crash. The period is remarkable for rising unemployment coinciding with rising inflation.[39]
1980 recession
Jan–July 1980
6 months
4 years
10 months
7.8%
(July 1980)
−2.2%
The NBER considers a very short recession to have occurred in 1980, followed by a short period of growth and then a deep recession. Unemployment remained relatively elevated in between recessions. The recession began as the Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, raised interest rates dramatically to fight the inflation of the 1970s. The early '80s are sometimes referred to as a "double-dip" or "W-shaped" recession.[29][40]
Early 1980s recession
July 1981*–
Nov 1982
1 year
4 months
1 year
10.8%
(Nov 1982)
−2.7%
The Iranian Revolution sharply increased the price of oil around the world in 1979, causing the 1979 energy crisis. This was caused by the new regime in power in Iran, which exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at a lower volume, forcing prices up. Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation led to another recession. The changes were made largely because of inflation carried over from the previous decade because of the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis.[41][42]
Early 1990s recession in the United States
July 1990*–
Mar 1991
8 months
7 years
8 months
7.8%
(June 1992)
−1.4%
After the lengthy peacetime expansion of the 1980s, inflation began to increase and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates from 1986 to 1989. This weakened but did not stop growth, but some combination of the subsequent 1990 oil price shock, the debt accumulation of the 1980s, and growing consumer pessimism combined with the weakened economy to produce a brief recession.[43][44][45]
Early 2000s recession
March 2001–Nov 2001
8 months
10 years
6.3%
(June 2003)
−0.3%
The 1990s were the longest period of growth in American history. The collapse of the speculative dot-com bubble, a fall in business outlays and investments, and the September 11th attacks,[46] brought the decade of growth to an end. Despite these major shocks, the recession was brief and shallow.[47]
Great Recession
Dec 2007 – June 2009[48][49]
1 year
6 months
6 years
1 month
10.0%
(October 2009)[50]
−5.1%[51]
The subprime mortgage crisis led to the collapse of the United States housing bubble. Falling housing-related assets contributed to a global financial crisis, even as oil and food prices soared. The crisis led to the failure or collapse of many of the United States' largest financial institutions: Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, Citi Bank and AIG, as well as a crisis in the automobile industry. The government responded with an unprecedented $700 billion bank bailout and $787 billion fiscal stimulus package. The National Bureau of Economic Research declared the end of this recession over a year after the end date.[52] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) finally reached its lowest point on March 9, 2009.[53]
See also[edit]
