https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/b12c90...cf62988/ss_everyone-knew-trump-would-win.html Hell Hillary cancelled her victory bash a week before the election............................
The issue of hindsight bias and fooling ourselves about what we think knew a priori haunts investors constantly. We are reminded of this by those who claim they saw the financial meltdown coming. Despite the lack of proof, they remain convinced they knew what was about to happen all along. These folks are fooling themselves. Due to several cognitive features of the human brain they are convinced of this and other untrue things. Of course, everyone knew Apple was going to be huge, too. Or Amazon or Google or Facebook. This is a feature, not a bug. Your brain seeks to make sense of a world filled with random events.
The issue of hindsight bias and fooling ourselves about what we think knew a priori haunts investors constantly. We are reminded of this by those who claim they saw the financial meltdown coming. Despite the lack of proof, they remain convinced they knew what was about to happen all along. These folks are fooling themselves. Due to several cognitive features of the human brain they are convinced of this and other untrue things. Of course, everyone knew Apple was going to be huge, too. Or Amazon or Google or Facebook. This is a feature, not a bug. Your brain seeks to make sense of a world filled with random events.