Teflon's new prediction!

Jarod

Jarod

Well-known member
Contributor
Teflon Don said:
I will make my prediction for the upcoming election. I reserve the right to alter this prediction as events change up until Election Day

Trump 273
Clinton 265


I believe Trump will not only win all of the Toss Ups in RCP, but he will also win Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan.

Here is why I believe Trump will win

1) He will win Ohio and Florida. Nobody in modern times has lost the Presidency if they take Ohio and Florida.
2) I believe he will win Pennsylvania for two reasons; the first is that he is pulling a high percentage of the black vote in PA which is bad for Clinton. Second he is running very competitively in Pittsburgh which is usually a blowout for democrats. This should mitigate Philadelphia and the Philly suburbs
3) By taking Ohio and Pennsylvania, Trump will bring in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota
4) Hillary is a quasi incumbent and can't break above 45-46% in the polls. Despite what the talking heads say that is a bad sign for an incumbent. People are still not sure about her and I believe they will break for Trump in the end despite his flaws
5) An overwhelming majority of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction and don't feel good about the economy. They want change. Trump represents change. Crooked ILLary represents more of the same.
6) An overwhelming majority of Americans think illegal immigration is a problem
7) There were 6 million Republican voters that sat on their hands in 2012 that I don't believe will be sitting on their hands in 2016. Had that 6 million turned out, Romney would be President
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In the other thread you said it was going to be very similar to 1980? What happened?
 
Do you have any data (polling?) that backs up your prediction about Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan?

If that happens, plus Florida and Ohio, wouldn't his Electoral Votes be higher than your prediction?
 
Jarod said:
In the other thread you said it was going to be very similar to 1980? What happened?
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He's scared shitless that that his messiah Trump is going to eat the burrito of shame come next Tuesday and he's walking back that earlier prediction.
 
Funny how he predicted a Trump victory in 1980 style.... Now Trump barely wins.
 
Jarod said:
In the other thread you said it was going to be very similar to 1980? What happened?
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His prediction means a very tight race........... Will hillary contest?? Afterall her opponent admitted on numerous occasions that the election is rigged.??
 
Jarod said:
In the other thread you said it was going to be very similar to 1980? What happened?
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Can you provide a link of me stating a "1980's election". I don't recall saying that.

Nevertheless what you see in APP is my official election prediction. I stand by it. I have posted links to polls. You can go find them, I feel no obligation to constantly repost things I have already posted.

I still stand by my prediction. Elections don't happen in vacuums. What happens in other states have profound effects on other states. That Clinton is actually going to Michigan today is a sure sign that it is in play. I believe Trump can win it. Remember in the democrat party primary, Hillary led Bernie by anywhere from 8-20 points and Bernie won by 1 point.

By prediction stands. If you look at the entire thread I posted in, I provided detailed, thoughtful analysis. You are free to disagree. Could I be tremendously wrong? Well, fuck yeah I could be wrong. Am I biased to some extent because I don't want to see Crooked Hillary win? Fuck yeah. Could that bias impact what I am seeing? Fuck yeah.

But, with all of that said, I stand by my original prediction.

You can ignore things all you want, but the reality is that the Clinton campaign is not acting like a campaign that is cruising to a victory. And let's not forget you were right there creaming your shorts that "The election is OVER". It clearly is not
 
I thought at the beginning of the week that the FBI letter was the end for Hillary.

But Trump didn't get much mo. It looked like he was starting to surge, but judging by the polls yesterday & today (so far), it looks like he wasn't able to get over the top.

Hard to see how he pulls it off. He needs to win every close state.
 
Thing1 said:
I thought at the beginning of the week that the FBI letter was the end for Hillary.

But Trump didn't get much mo. It looked like he was starting to surge, but judging by the polls yesterday & today (so far), it looks like he wasn't able to get over the top.

Hard to see how he pulls it off. He needs to win every close state.
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I am not sure you are directing that first statement to. I have been on the record and very consistent saying that the polls were moving in Trump's direction even before Comey's announcement. The one place where it looks like Comey's announcement had an impact is in New Hampshire.

Look we can all read into the polls what we want to read. In the end we will know on Tuesday.

If you look beyond the polls, you just look at what the Clinton campaign is doing here at the end of the race. She isn't behaving like someone who has this wrapped up. I am sure you will spin it otherwise, but we shall see
 
Teflon Don said:
I am not sure you are directing that first statement to. I have been on the record and very consistent saying that the polls were moving in Trump's direction even before Comey's announcement. The one place where it looks like Comey's announcement had an impact is in New Hampshire.

Look we can all read into the polls what we want to read. In the end we will know on Tuesday.

If you look beyond the polls, you just look at what the Clinton campaign is doing here at the end of the race. She isn't behaving like someone who has this wrapped up. I am sure you will spin it otherwise, but we shall see
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The Clintons always run as if they're sure they're going to lose. It's one of the reasons that usually win.
 
Jarod said:
The Clintons always run as if they're sure they're going to lose. It's one of the reasons that usually win.
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Did you find a link where I said this was going to be a 1980s election? Or are you running from that? I mean it was after all the premise of your OP.

FTR. You don't have to worry about me having the Mods delete my prediction thread. I stand by it as much today as I did the day I made it. You however don't seem to be providing any real in depth analysis.
 
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