Debate day

Darth Hussein Omar said:
I agree that election outcomes don't typically turn on debates and it's likely this one won't either.

But nothing about this cycle has been typical thus far.
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True. Say what you want about Trump he has completely upset the apple cart of American Presidential politics. He completely outmaneuvered his GOP rivals and the party establishment. He has completely changed the direction of the GOP and has brilliantly manipulated the media into providing him hundreds of millions worth of free advertisement. Say what one wants to about Trump but his advent onto the political stage has been seismic in nature.

That though has yet to pan out at the national level. Trump will essentially need to win 65% of the white vote in order to win the election. Given his divisive politics and his lack of a ground game...I'm skeptical he can win. I still see Clinton as a clear favorite by a 2:1 margin. (NO TOM! That does not equate with Trump does not have a chance to win.).
 
cawacko said:
The NYT had a good article this weekend interviewing the people closely involved with the first gore bush debate which many of them feel turned the election to Bush.

And with much disgust towards both candidates this year and a number of people on the fence between either who they dislike least or will they turn out to vote at all there is definitely a lot riding on it.
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I have a different perception. I found the 2000 elections slate of candidates far, far, far more repellent than this years. As far superior on public and foreign policy as Gore was to Bush he was about as likeable as a disaffected teenage porcupine...and that's putting it kindly. As likeable as W was he has probably been the most dangerously under qualified individual to ever win the presidency since Warren G. Harding and preceded to prove it. Both were entitled blue bloods of the old money political class whom I loath.

At least in this election I don't get the feeling I have the choice between Baron von Gore or The Duke of Dubya.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Granted, she could go back to her Senator from NY days and talk about how she worked with Republicans or helped people in her district
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Think so, lol?

Clinton was first elected as a senator from New York in 2000 and re-elected in 2006. She resigned to become secretary of state, so her Senate tenure was from January 2001 to January 2009.

Here are the bills she sponsored that passed:


S. 1241: A bill to establish the Kate Mullany National Historic Site in the State of New York.

S. 3613: A bill to name a post office the "Major George Quamo Post Office Building."

S. 3145: A bill to designate a highway in New York as the Timothy J. Russert highway.


http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2015/jun/23/jeb-bush/did-hillary-clinton-have-her-name-only-three-laws-/
 
Mott the Hoople said:
True. Say what you want about Trump he has completely upset the apple cart of American Presidential politics. He completely outmaneuvered his GOP rivals and the party establishment. He has completely changed the direction of the GOP and has brilliantly manipulated the media into providing him hundreds of millions worth of free advertisement. Say what one wants to about Trump but his advent onto the political stage has been seismic in nature.

That though has yet to pan out at the national level. Trump will essentially need to win 65% of the white vote in order to win the election. Given his divisive politics and his lack of a ground game...I'm skeptical he can win. I still see Clinton as a clear favorite by a 2:1 margin. (NO TOM! That does not equate with Trump does not have a chance to win.).
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Well, Nate Silver gives Trump a 48% chance. It's about as dead even as it can get.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
if Trump doesn't meet the left's expectations and erupt into a flaming fount of vitriol, Hillary loses......of course, he could kiss a puppy and the left will claim its Vesuvius....
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I'm reasonably sure Hillary could put a bullet in the middle of Trumps fore head and you could rationalize that Trump won.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
In theory at least, Clinton should own him on policy and issues, but here's the rub: Hillary's record sucks. Granted, she could go back to her Senator from NY days and talk about how she worked with Republicans or helped people in her district---but her record in the State Department is abysmal, and people aren't all that interested in what she accomplished in the Senate, if anything lol.

It would be different if she could point to the Middle East and say 'look at how calm things are there' or 'look at how we reigned in Putin' or solved the Syrian crisis or etc etc etc.

But every time she opens her mouth on it, it will provide an opening for Trump. Whether he can take it without hurting himself in the process is the only question.
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yes. Assuming Trump can bring home the point.
Like he can't just say "Libya" he needs to say she was largely responsible for creating a failed terrorist state.

I'd hit her on a "no fly" in Syria too -it shows she is an innate interventionist. what happens when we come into contact with Russian air?
 
anatta said:
Clinton's forte' is debate. Trump can't blow up,and has to at least sound like he takes this seriously
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It is? I've never, ever seen her debate. Not a real debate. The last time I seen two national level politicians debate was one Phil Donahue moderated in 91 between her husband Bill and Mario Cuomo where Donahue basically introduced the two and said "Gentlemen, have a nice conversation".
 
Jarod said:
I could be wrong, its dangerous to predict what Trump is going to do, but I suspect you will see the most mild mannered version of Trump yet. I think Kelly Anne Conway is keeping his balls in a box backstage.

Trump is a hair behind and believes he has the momentum. I think he plays it safe.
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Yup...you're right...it's dangerous. I think Trump has a litmus test he needs to pass in these debates that he's a serious candidate and not just a sales man with a sales pitch. If he passes that threshold the race is going to get a lot more competitive. If not...Clinton will probably win.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
It is? I've never, ever seen her debate. Not a real debate. The last time I seen two national level politicians debate was one Phil Donahue moderated in 91 between her husband Bill and Mario Cuomo where Donahue basically introduced the two and said "Gentlemen, have a nice conversation".
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well she is a policy wonk at least. a lot of this is filling in 90 minutes of air time with perceived authority ( mastery) of wtf you are saying
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I have a different perception. I found the 2000 elections slate of candidates far, far, far more repellent than this years. As far superior on public and foreign policy as Gore was to Bush he was about as likeable as a disaffected teenage porcupine...and that's putting it kindly. As likeable as W was he has probably been the most dangerously under qualified individual to ever win the presidency since Warren G. Harding and preceded to prove it. Both were entitled blue bloods of the old money political class whom I loath.

At least in this election I don't get the feeling I have the choice between Baron von Gore or The Duke of Dubya.
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Thanks for the reminder, I must agree with you that a President Trump is not as bad a prospect as a President W. Bush was.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Well, Nate Silver gives Trump a 48% chance. It's about as dead even as it can get.
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No, it could get 50% - 50%, that would be dead even.

I have always trusted Nate, so I agree that this race is close to even currently... there is a hair advantage to HRC.

That being said, the meat of the campaign is the next 45 days and the debate tonight will be one of a handful of significant elements. If one candidate gains a lasting bump or even two points we will have a winner.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Well, Nate Silver gives Trump a 48% chance. It's about as dead even as it can get.
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Sports books have Clinton still at 2:1 odds in her favor. They have a longer and better track record than 538 does...though it has tightened up since the conventions...the statistical odds are pretty much where they were before the convention.
 
Jarod said:
I could be wrong, its dangerous to predict what Trump is going to do, but I suspect you will see the most mild mannered version of Trump yet. I think Kelly Anne Conway is keeping his balls in a box backstage.

Trump is a hair behind and believes he has the momentum. I think he plays it safe.
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Who is keeping Hillary's balls in a box?
 
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