The Six States.

Jarod said:
I agree he has a real chance. I agree her range is more limited than his, but that works both ways up and down. She is more of a known political commodity and has been more greatly examined.

Unless people like you, Damocles and Cawako change their mind and vote for Trump however, I don't see how he garners enough votes to win. Damocles and you usually end up voting third party so you represent a group that would have been an opportunity for Trump but its not going to happen. Cawako who along with many others I know, represent standard Republican voters who Trump loses. Now I have hear of very few Democrats who refuse to vote for HRC. Most Bernie Sanders voters say that they will suck it up and vote for HRC. I only know of one who out right refuses and says she will vote third party.

Clearly this all gets much more messy if someone mounts a creditable third party run... Which is more likely this year than any other in recent history due to the high unlikeable numbers of the major party nominees.
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Maybe I will vote for Trump for two reasons

1) cancel out Rancid
2) make sure Legion Fags primary vote(s) aren't wasted.
 
anatta said:
Trump or Clinton...*barf* the utter failure of the 2 party system could not be more manifest.
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it does present a clear choice. Corporate Globalism or America First.

Cant ask for a better referendum on the direction of the country than that.
 
Jarod said:
Demographics and voting trends would say that if she gets Iowa she will very likely get Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's hard to see her getting Iowa and not those other two.
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You may recall me saying this before, this election is like no other. Models won't work.
 
tsuke said:
it does present a clear choice. Corporate Globalism or America First.

Cant ask for a better referendum on the direction of the country than that.
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I think it's easier said then done with pure globalization at work.
I'm all for America first -and it seems to bee too easy to off shore or move auto manufacturing to Mexico (i.e).

And certainly we do not need to dig bigger holes to put ourself in like NAFTA or the TPP ( pending)
But simply saying "i'm gonna make jobs" ( Trump paraphrased) doesn't make it so either..

I do agree we have been way too willing to offshore our decent jobs however.
There isn't a sense of "These United States" anymore. Not from the corps, and really not from many Americans them selves.
So we blindly go about income stratification as the norm, an have no real sense of a national identity/purpose
 
anatta said:
I think it's easier said then done with pure globalization at work.
I'm all for America first -and it seems to bee too easy to off shore or move auto manufacturing to Mexico (i.e).

And certainly we do not need to dig bigger holes to put ourself in like NAFTA or the TPP ( pending)
But simply saying "i'm gonna make jobs" ( Trump paraphrased) doesn't make it so either..

I do agree we have been way too willing to offshore our decent jobs however.
There isn't a sense of "These United States" anymore. Not from the corps, and really not from many Americans them selves.
So we blindly go about income stratification as the norm, an have no real sense of a national identity/purpose
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ok. then if you believe that vote trump.
 
Celticguy said:
Or maybe he's redefining the term.
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Maybe, but he's not what America has called a Conservative for the last 50 years.

If Trump is a new Conservative, ideologically its a huge improvement on what I have always called Conservative.
 
Jarod said:
Maybe, but he's not what America has called a Conservative for the last 50 years.

If Trump is a new Conservative, ideologically its a huge improvement on what I have always called Conservative.
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You have hit upon the secret to his success.
"What I have called"
Think back to DDE and perhaps he starts looking more conservative.
Since lbj when parties started the divide and conquer stuff politics has been about exclusian. Trump is about inclusion.

MAKE America great again. Vs. Fighting for us

See the difference ?
 
Celticguy said:
You have hit upon the secret to his success.
"What I have called"
Think back to DDE and perhaps he starts looking more conservative.
Since lbj when parties started the divide and conquer stuff politics has been about exclusian. Trump is about inclusion.

MAKE America great again. Vs. Fighting for us

See the difference ?
Click to expand...

I can't believe people are falling for his act. I hope it doesn't bite you in the butts. Trump only cares about his inclusion, no one else's. Anyone who has ever done a deal with him will tell this, but low information voters don't look beyond the veneer.

There is nothing bigger than Donald's ego.
 
Jarod said:
PiMP, I got the idea for this thread for a question you asked about what State would HRC pick up out of the group Obama won that Bush also won...

What are your thoughts?
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first of all, I see no reason you need to insult me by calling me a rude, sexually offensive name......second, as me again in September after we find out who the nominees are.....
 
PostmodernProphet said:
first of all, I see no reason you need to insult me by calling me a rude, sexually offensive name......second, as me again in September after we find out who the nominees are.....
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A bit early for Jesus juice isn't it, Pastor Pimp?

Jarod's assessment of the EVs sounds reasonable and the nominees are all but confirmed at this point. Unless, of course, you are still holding out hope for Huckabee.
Lol
 
Jarod said:
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
New Mexico (5)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)

These are the eight States GWB won in 2004 that BHO also won in 2008.

The electoral votes of some have changed.

In the current race, I know we are pretty far out, if the nominees are Trump v. Clinton it appears Nevada (6) Virginia (13) and New Mexico (5) are not currently battleground state as HRC is polling strongly. But we need to add Pennsylvania (20) and Arizona (11) because they are in the close range.

So lets adjust to the new battlegrounds.. we have North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18) Colorado (9) Arizona (11) and Iowa (6).

Assuming the other States go the way they did in the last three elections we will have...

Trump with a total of 180 "safe" electoral votes and Clinton with a total of 250 electoral votes.




1. What do you think... how do you think the 6 states worth 88 EV's will go?

2. Do you think my choices of current battleground states is incorrect?




I got most of my data from... http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php
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i haven't looked at polling data so I am just pulling shit out of my ass

intuitively, I dont feel Iowa is a state for trump. Again, I am basing this on nothing. I def agree he can be competitive in ohio, florida, penn, NC.

Arizona... tough call. I don't know the hispanic population there and how that effects him.
 
Leonthecat said:
A bit early for Jesus juice isn't it, Pastor Pimp?

Jarod's assessment of the EVs sounds reasonable and the nominees are all but confirmed at this point. Unless, of course, you are still holding out hope for Huckabee.
Lol
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got a problem with my comment, Buckle Cunt?......
 
I Love America said:
I think that despite what the chattering class says, Trump has a real chance against Hillary. He has a higher ceiling than she does. In fact I think she is maxed out on her support nationally.
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this is absolutely true. There aren't many people right now, having known hillary for 2 decades, still on the fence for her. You know if you are voting for clinton or not by this point.
 
The Prince said:
this is absolutely true. There aren't many people right now, having known hillary for 2 decades, still on the fence for her. You know if you are voting for clinton or not by this point.
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I don't agree, I think there are more people on the fence than ever before.
 
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