The Six States.

Jarod

Jarod

Well-known member
Contributor
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
New Mexico (5)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)

These are the eight States GWB won in 2004 that BHO also won in 2008.

The electoral votes of some have changed.

In the current race, I know we are pretty far out, if the nominees are Trump v. Clinton it appears Nevada (6) Virginia (13) and New Mexico (5) are not currently battleground state as HRC is polling strongly. But we need to add Pennsylvania (20) and Arizona (11) because they are in the close range.

So lets adjust to the new battlegrounds.. we have North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18) Colorado (9) Arizona (11) and Iowa (6).

Assuming the other States go the way they did in the last three elections we will have...

Trump with a total of 180 "safe" electoral votes and Clinton with a total of 250 electoral votes.




1. What do you think... how do you think the 6 states worth 88 EV's will go?

2. Do you think my choices of current battleground states is incorrect?




I got most of my data from... http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php
 
Too early imo.
I think polling could change dramatically once the candidates are locked in and horns are turned to the opponent.
 
i would add pa tothe list because their popular vote total was only 30000 last yesterday. but yeah too early
 
tsuke said:
i would add pa tothe list because their popular vote total was only 30000 last yesterday. but yeah too early
Click to expand...

Agreed. Not so sure VA is settled (political) science either. Nova may be a big enough gorilla now but black voting mattered too and that's not a lock.
 
tsuke said:
i would add pa tothe list because their popular vote total was only 30000 last yesterday. but yeah too early
Click to expand...

1. Yes its very early, and I generally don't think polling means much until after the conventions, especially in a year like this one, but its fun to speculate and since I am bored with the current rhetoric lets play....

2. Tsuke, do you have any data or evidence to suggest that voting patterns in primary contests relates to what will happen in the General? Nate Silver had an article a while back suggesting that you cant make any correlation to attach primary voting numbers to anything meaningful for the General election.
 
PiMP, I got the idea for this thread for a question you asked about what State would HRC pick up out of the group Obama won that Bush also won...

What are your thoughts? I know you think Trump will easily get Michigan, but beyond that what are your thoughts?
 
I think that despite what the chattering class says, Trump has a real chance against Hillary. He has a higher ceiling than she does. In fact I think she is maxed out on her support nationally.
 
Jarod said:
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
New Mexico (5)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)

These are the eight States GWB won in 2004 that BHO also won in 2008.

The electoral votes of some have changed.

In the current race, I know we are pretty far out, if the nominees are Trump v. Clinton it appears Nevada (6) Virginia (13) and New Mexico (5) are not currently battleground state as HRC is polling strongly. But we need to add Pennsylvania (20) and Arizona (11) because they are in the close range.

So lets adjust to the new battlegrounds.. we have North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18) Colorado (9) Arizona (11) and Iowa (6).

Assuming the other States go the way they did in the last three elections we will have...

Trump with a total of 180 "safe" electoral votes and Clinton with a total of 250 electoral votes.




1. What do you think... how do you think the 6 states worth 88 EV's will go?

2. Do you think my choices of current battleground states is incorrect?




I got most of my data from... http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php
Click to expand...


At Tsuke's suggestion I took a look at PA, I agree it should be added to the swing state list. Not for the reason Tsuke gave, but because I missed it and the polling data suggests it is a swing state.

So lets recalculate....

Adding PA to the battleground states we have North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18) Colorado (9) Arizona (11) Iowa (6) and Pennsylvania (20).

That means that calculating the "Safe States" HRC has 230 electoral votes and Trump has 180.

That puts the electoral votes in the tossup column at 108....

1. Any more additions or subtractions from the current Battleground States?

2. Any thoughts on how they will sort out?

Hillary needs 40 more EV's and Trumps needs 90 of them...
 
I Love America said:
I think that despite what the chattering class says, Trump has a real chance against Hillary. He has a higher ceiling than she does. In fact I think she is maxed out on her support nationally.
Click to expand...

I agree he has a real chance. I agree her range is more limited than his, but that works both ways up and down. She is more of a known political commodity and has been more greatly examined.

Unless people like you, Damocles and Cawako change their mind and vote for Trump however, I don't see how he garners enough votes to win. Damocles and you usually end up voting third party so you represent a group that would have been an opportunity for Trump but its not going to happen. Cawako who along with many others I know, represent standard Republican voters who Trump loses. Now I have hear of very few Democrats who refuse to vote for HRC. Most Bernie Sanders voters say that they will suck it up and vote for HRC. I only know of one who out right refuses and says she will vote third party.

Clearly this all gets much more messy if someone mounts a creditable third party run... Which is more likely this year than any other in recent history due to the high unlikeable numbers of the major party nominees.
 
Last edited:
Geraldo said:
I think that despite what the chattering class says, Trump has a real chance against Hillary. He has a higher ceiling than she does. In fact I think she is maxed out on her support nationally.
Click to expand...

You think Bernie supporters will sit the election out and watch Trump win?

1309182_630x354.jpg
 
I have decided after his comments last night that I am voting Hillary. I am going to prove him right, women will make her President. He can stuff his woman card where the sun don't shine.
 
Jarod said:
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
New Mexico (5)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)

These are the eight States GWB won in 2004 that BHO also won in 2008.

The electoral votes of some have changed.

In the current race, I know we are pretty far out, if the nominees are Trump v. Clinton it appears Nevada (6) Virginia (13) and New Mexico (5) are not currently battleground state as HRC is polling strongly. But we need to add Pennsylvania (20) and Arizona (11) because they are in the close range.

So lets adjust to the new battlegrounds.. we have North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18) Colorado (9) Arizona (11) and Iowa (6).

Assuming the other States go the way they did in the last three elections we will have...

Trump with a total of 180 "safe" electoral votes and Clinton with a total of 250 electoral votes.




1. What do you think... how do you think the 6 states worth 88 EV's will go?

2. Do you think my choices of current battleground states is incorrect?




I got most of my data from... http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php
Click to expand...
I do but everyone of those States are polling in favor of Clinton over Trump but within the margin of error. That was also true in 2004 (Bush) and 20008 (Obama).
 
Celticguy said:
HRC Col Iowa.
DJT. NC. FL. OH AR PENN

If I have to guess
Click to expand...
Demographics and voting trends would say that if she gets Iowa she will very likely get Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's hard to see her getting Iowa and not those other two.
 
Most Bernie Sanders voters say that they will suck it up and vote for HRC. I only know of one who out right refuses and says she will vote third party.
Click to expand...
I won't vote for her..Her judgement is shitty. Not just Iraq, but Libya ( not Bengazi -the war) and wanting to arm Syrian rebels
and her "Friends of Syria" campaign..
But you are correct in that I can't see myself going for Trump either..He would have to do a complete turnaround and come up with better ideas/rhetoric

I do know a few Bernie Bros. who like myself are not going to support the corporatist warmonger of HRClinton.
I'm looking at Gary Johnson again.
 
Rana said:
I have decided after his comments last night that I am voting Hillary. I am going to prove him right, women will make her President. He can stuff his woman card where the sun don't shine.
Click to expand...

That is almost as shocking as learning Boy George liked to suck dick. Who could have seen that coming?

I am sure your one vote will sway Alaska
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top