Voter Registration Surge in California

[anatta]

The problem with polls this far out is that they're only good for spotting trends. This is April and the elections not till November. What should be at least mildly unsettling if you're a Hillary supporter is that the gap between Hillary and Trump as gotten smaller and not bigger.

If Trump starts to lower his unfavorables with minorities and woman, that's not going to bode well for OP's proposition that there's going to be a surge of #NeverTrump voters showing up for Hillary. Also, keep in mind that Trump hasn't really unloaded on Hillary yet. I can't imagine him not being effective, given his track record.

They may say to hell with it and wish a pox on both their houses lol. They'll stay home if that's the case.

Ya. all possibly true.
But Trump needs to do some major back-walking ; and do you think the Democrats are gonna let him?

"rapists and mass deportations" are gonna be in every campaign commercial ( with a Berlin type wall in the background)...
Then you'll see Hillary handing out towels in the men's room to transgenders who really self identify.....

That's the Democratic campaign right there,and it works. Do you want to be great again or do you want to be diverse?

 

[Darth Omar]

Ya. all possibly true.
But Trump needs to do some major back-walking ; and do you think the Democrats are gonna let him?

"rapists and mass deportations" are gonna be in every campaign commercial ( with a Berlin type wall in the background)...
Then you'll see Hillary handing out towels in the men's room to transgenders who really self identify.....

That's the Democratic campaign right there,and it works. Do you want to be great again or do you want to be diverse?

The whole bathroom 'crisis' is an indication of how unserious liberal democrats are about governing this country. People need jobs, the economy sucks, infrastructure is going to hell in a hand basket, the Middle East is coming apart at the seams and liberals are talking about restroom use as if it's Rosa Parks all over again.

This is exactly why Trump has been successful. No one is serious about immigration. No one is serious about bringing jobs back. Democrats have kicked blue collar workers [of all colors] to the curb for the sake of climate change and appeals to narrow segments of the electorate so they can win elections.

It's not like it's a big secret either. You don't see the potential for trouble in that?

 

[anatta]

The whole bathroom 'crisis' is an indication of how unserious liberal democrats are about governing this country. People need jobs, the economy sucks, infrastructure is going to hell in a hand basket, the Middle East is coming apart at the seams and liberals are talking about restroom use as if it's Rosa Parks all over again.

This is exactly why Trump has been successful. No one is serious about immigration. No one is serious about bringing jobs back. Democrats have kicked blue collar workers [of all colors] to the curb for the sake of climate change and appeals to narrow segments of the electorate so they can win elections.

It's not like it's a big secret either. You don't see the potential for trouble in that?

I do not see electoral troubles for the Dems.
That's how the Dems address their base -income inequality instead of rising income for all.

Gender inequality plays into the theme of 21st century America; where perceived or real slights are more important to solve/highlite
then providing job opportunities.
I happen to think income inequality is a real issue; but I also think good paying jobs ( which is more then a $15 minimum wage)
is the way to solve it.
But with women and minorities it seems fairness is much more important then growing the pie..
I realize these are gross generalities -but it seems to be the Democratic message..

Now add in Trumps inabilities to speak beyond the Rpublican base ( with maybe the exception of so called Reagan Democrats)
That brings Hillary's hyena laugh right to the White House

 

[cawacko]

Well, that's kind of it isn't it, lol. Trump or any republican contender will have every word scrutinized when the topic is race related. What he said was that Mexico was sending *some* rapists and crooks over the border along with some good Mexican people.

Which is an undeniable fact.

Deporting illegal immigrants gets converted to 'Trump hates Mexicans' when the reality is that Trump hates illegal immigration, if he hates anything. The reality is that he sees the myriad problems illegal immigration is causing for our own poor people. A sane, dare I say moral?, country takes care of those first.

But look for Hillary and her minions in press and blogosphere to double down on the Trump is a hater rhetoric once it becomes clear its Trump vs Hillary.

How Trump contends with it may well determine the election.

We both know Trump's no dummy. He's a marketing genius. He knew exactly what he was saying when he made that statement and the attention it would get and it worked. But being that provocative also comes with backlash and you're seeing that in his poll numbers with Hispanics.

 

[CFM]

New Hispanic voters didn't double because they are anti-establishment, it's because they are anti-Trump.

It's obvious why they don't like Trump. Trump doesn't support their illegal family members coming here.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

document with more than anecdotes and we can talk......and I'm sorry your wife sinks to the level of calling Republicans Nazis.....I expected more from her.......

Nice strawman. she didn't call Republicans Nazi's. She called Trump a Nazi. From her point of view, I hardly blame her and to be honest, it's people like you who have alienated her from the Republican party as she has no illusions as to what people like you think of her and her family. Which is really stupid on your part as she's essentially a very conservative and religious woman...and she's a legal immigrant (now a U.S. citizen).

As long as you rural white reactionaries continue to condone the racist and bigoted element of the base of your party you will continue to shrink and become less credible and be less able to build coalitions with people who essentially share your values as your bigotry blinds you.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

The problem with polls this far out is that they're only good for spotting trends. This is April and the elections not till November. What should be at least mildly unsettling if you're a Hillary supporter is that the gap between Hillary and Trump as gotten smaller and not bigger.

If Trump starts to lower his unfavorables with minorities and woman, that's not going to bode well for OP's proposition that there's going to be a surge of #NeverTrump voters showing up for Hillary. Also, keep in mind that Trump hasn't really unloaded on Hillary yet. I can't imagine him not being effective, given his track record.

They may say to hell with it and wish a pox on both their houses lol. They'll stay home if that's the case.

Wishful thinking. You're rationalizing. You can't burn bridges like that and turn around and try to rebuild them. It doesn't work that way. People may have short memories but not that short. The numbers clearly show that unless something dramatic happens between now and the election the Dems will win the White House again.

The GOP has problems with their message as its clear they represent the interest of oligarchy and plutocracy but even that is not an insurmountable political problem. The real problem for the GOP is that about 25% of their base hold racist and bigoted view points that are offensive to most of the nation and that 25% has a disproportionate influence on the GOP.

Until the GOP rectifies that problem they are on the edge of the abyss.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I do not see electoral troubles for the Dems.
That's how the Dems address their base -income inequality instead of rising income for all.

Gender inequality plays into the theme of 21st century America; where perceived or real slights are more important to solve/highlite
then providing job opportunities.
I happen to think income inequality is a real issue; but I also think good paying jobs ( which is more then a $15 minimum wage)
is the way to solve it.
But with women and minorities it seems fairness is much more important then growing the pie..
I realize these are gross generalities -but it seems to be the Democratic message..

Now add in Trumps inabilities to speak beyond the Rpublican base ( with maybe the exception of so called Reagan Democrats)
That brings Hillary's hyena laugh right to the White House

LOL That's funny. Show me where that rising income for all has occurred?

That is the primary reason we're seeing so much anger and hostility in this election cycle. We have gone through a 30 year period of extraordinary economic growth but it sure as hell didn't result in rising income for all. It resulted in spectacular rises in income for a very few. Then we had a world wide economic meltdown in 2008 due to greed and fraud that cost millions of peoples their homes and livelihood and the people who were responsible were not only not held accountable, their victims had to pay to bail their asses out. Then when the economy recovered virtually all the economic gains have gone to a handful of people and not to those who actually produced that wealth. It's mostly gone to people who do trick with money. Middlemen.

So spare me this faux "rising income for all"nonsense and show me where that has actually ever happened in the last 30 years.

 

[Jarod]

what difference does it make......California will still have the same number of electoral votes.......

a better question is, can Hillary win the seven states that Obama won in 2008 that Bush won in 2004.........

Which 7 are they and Ill give you my opinion.

 

[Jarod]

It may not matter. I'm Sitting here watching Trump's speech after today's primaries and he's sweet talking Bernie's people and telling them they got screwed by the system. If he gets a significant number of Bernie's people all bets are off.

Personality wise, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump cant possibly be more different. I don't see many Sanders voters supporting Trump, they may vote 3rd party or not vote, but the vast majority wont vote Trump.

 

[Jarod]

If the election were today that would be a resounding yes. Trump has alienated women, latinos, blacks, Asians and women. Even if he were to poll at 75% with white men his odds are poor. It's also extremely doubtful he could win that many white men. Not all white guys are anal retentive social conservatives or Bubba rednecks.

Not only has he alienated those groups, he has alienated many other groups.

I know a woman who has a child with Downs Syndrome. She is a Conservative anti-abortion voter. She is also in several groups and organizations that work to promote the needs and support of people with special needs due to birth disorders. She is about the most anti-Trump person I know every since he mocked that disabled reporter. We jokingly call her the Mayor of our town because she knows everyone, and she is not shy about trashing trump everywhere she goes.

 

[Jarod]

Wishful thinking. You're rationalizing. You can't burn bridges like that and turn around and try to rebuild them. It doesn't work that way. People may have short memories but not that short. The numbers clearly show that unless something dramatic happens between now and the election the Dems will win the White House again.

The GOP has problems with their message as its clear they represent the interest of oligarchy and plutocracy but even that is not an insurmountable political problem. The real problem for the GOP is that about 25% of their base hold racist and bigoted view points that are offensive to most of the nation and that 25% has a disproportionate influence on the GOP.

Until the GOP rectifies that problem they are on the edge of the abyss.

In a presidential election, you cant just declare Bankruptcy and have all the racist/sexist claims of your past disappear.

Wow, I think I just came up with a great Pro-Hillary commercial.

 

[Darth Omar]

In a presidential election, you cant just declare Bankruptcy and have all the racist/sexist claims of your past disappear.

Wow, I think I just came up with a great Pro-Hillary commercial.

The Clinton's don't have sexist background lol? How many women did they destroy during Bills two terms?

And yes, Trump will absolutely go there. John McCain he ain't.

 

[Jarod]

The Clinton's don't have sexist background lol? How many women did they destroy during Bills two terms?

And yes, Trump will absolutely go there. John McCain he ain't.

I have a very hard time attacking Hillary because her husband had affairs. I don't think many people are going to go for that. I agree with you that Trump will try to go for that.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

The Clinton's don't have sexist background lol? How many women did they destroy during Bills two terms?

And yes, Trump will absolutely go there. John McCain he ain't.

Those kinds of attacks on Hillary won't work like they did on his GOP primary opponents.

They'll fire up the people who are already supporting him now - but he doesn't need to win over those voters. They won't bring anyone new into the fold.

 

[Darth Omar]

I have a very hard time attacking Hillary because her husband had affairs. I don't think many people are going to go for that. I agree with you that Trump will try to go for that.

Well, she is a democrat so maybe you're right lol.

But that will only play amongst her base. It's no different than hardcore Trump supporters ignoring his verbal malfeasance. How it's going to play amongst Independents is another matter. That's not even getting into Benghazi or etc and etc. Hillary Clinton has to be the most baggage laden presidential candidate in the past 50 years, and her opponent is a master take down artist.

I don't get the optimism for Hillary.

 

[zappasguitar]

Yea....then explain to me why the vast overwhelming majority of legal immigrants despise him too. My wife is a legal immigrant. This will be her first POTUS election. She thinks Trump is a NAZI. So does ALL, not most, of her family. I know quite a few immigrants, virtually all of them are legal. To a person they despise Trump. How do you reconcile that?

Ohhhh wait, I know the answer to this one...let me try.

They will reconcile it by claiming what you presented is just anecdotal and not quantifiable.

 

[Jarod]

Well, she is a democrat so maybe you're right lol.

But that will only play amongst her base. It's no different than hardcore Trump supporters ignoring his verbal malfeasance. How it's going to play amongst Independents is another matter. That's not even getting into Benghazi or etc and etc. Hillary Clinton has to be the most baggage laden presidential candidate in the past 50 years, and her opponent is a master take down artist.

I don't get the optimism for Hillary.

The Benghazi deal is played out, they could not find anything and already shot their wad by claiming all kinds of things that proved to be untrue. I think the email deal is played out also. Americans are very sick of the Republican false scandal outrage machine against HRC, it has already started to backfire.

They tried it with Obama and it did not work, The Gun thing, the IRS thing, the Birth Certificate thing...

Many of us remember when they tired it with Bill Clinton, they even impeached him and it only made him more popular.

 

[USFREEDOM911]

If the election were today that would be a resounding yes. Trump has alienated SOME women, SOME latinos, SOME blacks, SOME Asians and SOME women (REPETITIVE). Even if he were to poll at 75% with white men his odds are poor. It's also extremely doubtful he could win that many white men. Not all white guys are anal retentive social conservatives or Bubba rednecks.

ftfy
But then the same could be said for Hillary, not that the liberals will admit it.

 

[USFREEDOM911]

Boy you can sure tell you haven't spoken to any Latinos lately. My wife and I both work with quite a few of them. Legal types ones with college education and I can tell you right now they not only don't like Trump he flat out pisses them off and if you we're to attempt to whitemansplain to them why voting Trump is in their best interest you'd probably be in for a rude awakening.

I mean you really need to go talk to some Latinos cause you have no idea the antipathy they have towards the man. If Trump were to run he'd be lucky to get 1 in 10 Latino votes. Trump has also managed to alienate most Asians on the immigration issue too as most Asians are either immigrants or their parents are or have lots of family members who are. As a person married to an Asian I can tell you the typical response I see with our Asian friends and Family when Trump is mentioned is identical to Latinos. They revile the man.

So lets say that Trump does get the RNC nomination, then what percentage of these votes do you predict he'll get?