Will Trump or Cruz win the GOP nomination?

Mott the Hoople

Mott the Hoople

Sweet Jane
Last summer I bought into the conventional wisdom that Trump or Cruz would lose the GOP nomination because they were unelectable at a national level and that a party establishment member would arise out of the crowd to win the nomination.

I don't think that's going to happen now. The polling for both Trump and Cruz has stayed remarkably consistent going into Primary season. My guess is Trump will roll up Cruz to win the GOP nomination. I don't think a brokered convention will occur in Cleveland.

So why is this happening? Well for a long time the GOP's Southern strategy has allied two primary groups. Working class whites with Plutocrats/Corporate Management class. Two very unlikely partners in politics. For a generation now this coalition has been lead by the plutocrats who have promised their base to uphold social issues that white working class identify with their values (the so called guns, gays, abortion, religion, patriotism, etc). For a generation the GOP's political leaders have made promises to the white working class base only to be elected and to focus on tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation and free trade, only to have their priorities almost completely ignored. This has been going of for election, after election for over a generation and it's a big reason why white working class voters are so angry. They feel that they have gone from the political dominant demographic to an after thought and they are not happy about this.

Along comes Trump and Cruz at a time when this anger among the largest constituent of the GOP coalition has reached white hot heat and they appear to be the right people at the right time to win the GOP nomination. I am pretty sure now that Trump will win the GOP nomination. In that respect I have changed my view from last summer.

So that then brings up the only real relevant electoral question. Since Bernie Sanders odds of beating Hillary who will be Hillary's vice-president? Nothing has changed at the national level. The data, if the election were held today, shows clearly Hillary would defeat Trump decisively and Cruz by an EV landslide.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Last summer I bought into the conventional wisdom that Trump or Cruz would lose the GOP nomination because they were unelectable at a national level and that a party establishment member would arise out of the crowd to win the nomination.

I don't think that's going to happen now. The polling for both Trump and Cruz has stayed remarkably consistent going into Primary season. My guess is Trump will roll up Cruz to win the GOP nomination. I don't think a brokered convention will occur in Cleveland.

So why is this happening? Well for a long time the GOP's Southern strategy has allied two primary groups. Working class whites with Plutocrats/Corporate Management class. Two very unlikely partners in politics. For a generation now this coalition has been lead by the plutocrats who have promised their base to uphold social issues that white working class identify with their values (the so called guns, gays, abortion, religion, patriotism, etc). For a generation the GOP's political leaders have made promises to the white working class base only to be elected and to focus on tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation and free trade, only to have their priorities almost completely ignored. This has been going of for election, after election for over a generation and it's a big reason why white working class voters are so angry. They feel that they have gone from the political dominant demographic to an after thought and they are not happy about this.

Along comes Trump and Cruz at a time when this anger among the largest constituent of the GOP coalition has reached white hot heat and they appear to be the right people at the right time to win the GOP nomination. I am pretty sure now that Trump will win the GOP nomination. In that respect I have changed my view from last summer.

So that then brings up the only real relevant electoral question. Since Bernie Sanders odds of beating Hillary who will be Hillary's vice-president? Nothing has changed at the national level. The data, if the election were held today, shows clearly Hillary would defeat Trump decisively and Cruz by an EV landslide.
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Careful, the conservatives on this board getting very touchy when you bring up those facts.
 
For the first time in my life, there is a good chance there will not be a conservative among the top two presidential choices.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Last summer I bought into the conventional wisdom that Trump or Cruz would lose the GOP nomination because they were unelectable at a national level and that a party establishment member would arise out of the crowd to win the nomination.

I don't think that's going to happen now. The polling for both Trump and Cruz has stayed remarkably consistent going into Primary season. My guess is Trump will roll up Cruz to win the GOP nomination. I don't think a brokered convention will occur in Cleveland.

So why is this happening? Well for a long time the GOP's Southern strategy has allied two primary groups. Working class whites with Plutocrats/Corporate Management class. Two very unlikely partners in politics. For a generation now this coalition has been lead by the plutocrats who have promised their base to uphold social issues that white working class identify with their values (the so called guns, gays, abortion, religion, patriotism, etc). For a generation the GOP's political leaders have made promises to the white working class base only to be elected and to focus on tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation and free trade, only to have their priorities almost completely ignored. This has been going of for election, after election for over a generation and it's a big reason why white working class voters are so angry. They feel that they have gone from the political dominant demographic to an after thought and they are not happy about this.

Along comes Trump and Cruz at a time when this anger among the largest constituent of the GOP coalition has reached white hot heat and they appear to be the right people at the right time to win the GOP nomination. I am pretty sure now that Trump will win the GOP nomination. In that respect I have changed my view from last summer.

So that then brings up the only real relevant electoral question. Since Bernie Sanders odds of beating Hillary who will be Hillary's vice-president? Nothing has changed at the national level. The data, if the election were held today, shows clearly Hillary would defeat Trump decisively and Cruz by an EV landslide.
Click to expand...

If you think your girl is going to win no matter what then who cares?
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Last summer I bought into the conventional wisdom that Trump or Cruz would lose the GOP nomination because they were unelectable at a national level and that a party establishment member would arise out of the crowd to win the nomination.

I don't think that's going to happen now. The polling for both Trump and Cruz has stayed remarkably consistent going into Primary season. My guess is Trump will roll up Cruz to win the GOP nomination. I don't think a brokered convention will occur in Cleveland.

So why is this happening? Well for a long time the GOP's Southern strategy has allied two primary groups. Working class whites with Plutocrats/Corporate Management class. Two very unlikely partners in politics. For a generation now this coalition has been lead by the plutocrats who have promised their base to uphold social issues that white working class identify with their values (the so called guns, gays, abortion, religion, patriotism, etc). For a generation the GOP's political leaders have made promises to the white working class base only to be elected and to focus on tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation and free trade, only to have their priorities almost completely ignored. This has been going of for election, after election for over a generation and it's a big reason why white working class voters are so angry. They feel that they have gone from the political dominant demographic to an after thought and they are not happy about this.

Along comes Trump and Cruz at a time when this anger among the largest constituent of the GOP coalition has reached white hot heat and they appear to be the right people at the right time to win the GOP nomination. I am pretty sure now that Trump will win the GOP nomination. In that respect I have changed my view from last summer.

So that then brings up the only real relevant electoral question. Since Bernie Sanders odds of beating Hillary who will be Hillary's vice-president? Nothing has changed at the national level. The data, if the election were held today, shows clearly Hillary would defeat Trump decisively and Cruz by an EV landslide.
Click to expand...

I keep hearing, over and over again from different sources that Hillary Clinton, if nothing changes will choose congressman Castro as her vice President.
 
It was very interesting to see, last night, both the State of the Union address and the Republican response calling out Trumpism. Nikki Haley confirm this morning on one of the radio shows that she was speaking about the Trump phenomenon. Maybe we finally found an issue the Republicans and Democrats can come together on.
 
I Love America said:
If you think your girl is going to win no matter what then who cares?
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Well one, she isn't "My Girl". I'm drawing my conclusion based on the numbers and not any partisan sympathies. If the Election were today Hillary would defeat Trump and crush Cruz. I haven't seen any trend to indicate that the State by State polling numbers are going to change significantly. It could happen but the probability is low. Rubio would be a different critter. Throw him into the equation and the numbers, though favoring Clinton are significantly closer. Rubio could make a horse race out of it...not so much Trump or Cruz.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Well one, she isn't "My Girl". I'm drawing my conclusion based on the numbers and not any partisan sympathies. If the Election were today Hillary would defeat Trump and crush Cruz. I haven't seen any trend to indicate that the State by State polling numbers are going to change significantly. It could happen but the probability is low. Rubio would be a different critter. Throw him into the equation and the numbers, though favoring Clinton are significantly closer. Rubio could make a horse race out of it...not so much Trump or Cruz.
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She is absolutely "your girl". Your vote has been made for you since 2010 at least.
 
They don't want to talk about the issues, so they dumb it down to saying she's "your girl".
 
Jarod said:
It was very interesting to see, last night, both the State of the Union address and the Republican response calling out Trumpism. Nikki Haley confirm this morning on one of the radio shows that she was speaking about the Trump phenomenon. Maybe we finally found an issue the Republicans and Democrats can come together on.
Click to expand...
I think that it is important that both parties distance themselves from the type of populism both Trump and Cruz represent. Trump I don't worry about as much as Cruz. Trump, despite all his bluster, has an air of noblese oblige and I think the red meat he's throwing to the howling dogs is just that. Red meat. I think Trump would, if elected, attempt to govern responsibly and not as an extreme ideologue.

Cruz scares me far more than Trump as he's a humorless ideologue. The type that governs fanatically from the letter of the law and the spirit of the law be damned. Compassion does not exist in his political vocabulary. I find the thought of Cruz in a position of power or authority deeply disturbing.

Clinton on the other hand is primarily a technocrat who makes measured and well though out decisions. Like her or not she'd rule responsibly. The problem with Hillary is it would be four more years of partisan sniping instead of getting anything done. Having said that, I think it is important for this nation, moving forward to recognize that the day of exclusive rule by anal retentive white guys is over. I think that it's important that a precedent be set, as was set with Obama, that a qualified woman can govern. Going to be a lot of average guys who aint going to like that though. LOL
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I think that it is important that both parties distance themselves from the type of populism both Trump and Cruz represent. Trump I don't worry about as much as Cruz. Trump, despite all his bluster, has an air of noblese oblige and I think the red meat he's throwing to the howling dogs is just that. Red meat. I think Trump would, if elected, attempt to govern responsibly and not as an extreme ideologue.

Cruz scares me far more than Trump as he's a humorless ideologue. The type that governs fanatically from the letter of the law and the spirit of the law be damned. Compassion does not exist in his political vocabulary. I find the thought of Cruz in a position of power or authority deeply disturbing.

Clinton on the other hand is primarily a technocrat who makes measured and well though out decisions. Like her or not she'd rule responsibly. The problem with Hillary is it would be four more years of partisan sniping instead of getting anything done. Having said that, I think it is important for this nation, moving forward to recognize that the day of exclusive rule by anal retentive white guys is over. I think that it's important that a precedent be set, as was set with Obama, that a qualified woman can govern. Going to be a lot of average guys who aint going to like that though. LOL
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Do you believe any Democrat could hold the office without it being all about the partisan sniping from the angry right?
 
Hulagu Khan said:
She is absolutely "your girl". Your vote has been made for you since 2010 at least.
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No she is not "My Girl". If my decision to vote for Hillary, as POTUS, has been set since 2010, assuming she wins the nomination, it's because the competition against her on the other side of the aisle is so appallingly bad. Currently there's only one of the GOP candidates I'd consider. The rest are either populist, demagogues or neophytes or, as Jeb's case, out of touch blue bloods. If anyone is my "Person" it's John Kasich but Kasich isn't going to win the nomination, is he?

I'm probably going to vote for Bernie in the Ohio primary simply cause I don't want another Clinton (or Bush) running for POTUS. We need that sort of political inbreeding like we need a collective hole in our heads but I'll take her in a heart beat over the current cast of clowns who are front runners on the GOP Circus Train.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I think that it is important that both parties distance themselves from the type of populism both Trump and Cruz represent. Trump I don't worry about as much as Cruz. Trump, despite all his bluster, has an air of noblese oblige and I think the red meat he's throwing to the howling dogs is just that. Red meat. I think Trump would, if elected, attempt to govern responsibly and not as an extreme ideologue.

Cruz scares me far more than Trump as he's a humorless ideologue. The type that governs fanatically from the letter of the law and the spirit of the law be damned. Compassion does not exist in his political vocabulary. I find the thought of Cruz in a position of power or authority deeply disturbing.

Clinton on the other hand is primarily a technocrat who makes measured and well though out decisions. Like her or not she'd rule responsibly. The problem with Hillary is it would be four more years of partisan sniping instead of getting anything done. Having said that, I think it is important for this nation, moving forward to recognize that the day of exclusive rule by anal retentive white guys is over. I think that it's important that a precedent be set, as was set with Obama, that a qualified woman can govern. Going to be a lot of average guys who aint going to like that though. LOL
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Trumps ego and resulting mental state would concern me were he in the oval. If I'm wrong to be concerned you are correct cruz's fundamentalism and radical religious furvor would be more dangerous than Trumps bravado.
 
Jarod said:
Do you believe any Democrat could hold the office without it being all about the partisan sniping from the angry right?
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Yes. I believe a moderate, DNC type, center left white male candidate would not have the degree of political sniping from the right wing. There is no doubt that a large part of the political snipping on Hillary is because she's a woman. Same with a lot of the opposition to Barry. A large part, not all, but a large part of which has been driven by racism. Even the virulent sniping against Bill Clinton was because as a southern democrat Clinton was an apostate who co-opted much of the southern GOP agenda successfully and garnered a lot of enemies in the process. I didn't help that his character flaws kept him stepping in the shit either.
 
I like Kasich but would still vote Clinton due to the "right to privacy (freedom)" needing to be preserved at the Supreme.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Yes. I believe a moderate, DNC type, center left white male candidate would not have the degree of political sniping from the right wing. There is no doubt that a large part of the political snipping on Hillary is because she's a woman. Same with a lot of the opposition to Barry. A large part, not all, but a large part of which has been driven by racism. Even the virulent sniping against Bill Clinton was because as a southern democrat Clinton was an apostate who co-opted much of the southern GOP agenda successfully and garnered a lot of enemies in the process. I didn't help that his character flaws kept him stepping in the shit either.
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Bill was a moderate DNC type, at least his second term was. They thought after Reagan they owned patriotism and the White House, that's what upset them about WJC.

Who is a moderate DNC type?
 
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