Going short. All in

Teflon Don

Teflon Don

I'm back baby
http://finance.yahoo.com

The market has finally breached key support. For those that are holding long positions, going into cash would not be unwise to preserve capital. We could be heading below 1700 very quickly as stop losses are sure to be triggered. Those who bought at the December fed announcement have all been taken out with this recent decline.

Also, January has been a good predictor of where the year is heading. January up, then the year is up. January down, then the year is down.

I am setting stop loss at 1800 on the S&P.

Good luck
 
Many Cons have screamed such over the past 5 years, but this time I am seeing some indication you might be correct on this post.
 
It appears that no matter how much the media attempts to paint a rosey economic picture, the damned truth keeps slapping us in the face; the economy sucks as bad as Obama does as a President and failure of leadership.

You haven't seen anything yet; wait till Obamacare hits full steam. This mess is just getting started.
 
Fear mongering
Jan down equals 50/50
So selling into halfway correction
Good luck though, I think it's a good bet.
Question how long will you wait to sell
And when do you buy again
 
The Dude said:
Fear mongering
Jan down equals 50/50
So selling into halfway correction
Good luck though, I think it's a good bet.
Question how long will you wait to sell
And when do you buy again
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Great question. Right now I have a stop loss set at 1800 and will move that downward depending on how low this goes. I think for the short term we are heading for the 1600s. As far as when I will go long again? It hasn't changed from before. I will go long when we get two straight closes above 1850 which is now new resistance that the S&P 500 needs to overcome to prove to me that a new uptrend is in place.

There is no doubt that the bears are in control right now. Could that change? It could. That is why I have a stop loss in place
 
The Dude said:
Also when yo say all in!
You mean chump change.
Since the bulk of your wealth is in real estate
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Depends on how you define chump change. But, yes I have most of my assets in real estate, but I actively manage my money. The real estate is pretty much on auto pilot. I have turned the bulk of it over to management companies because I don't want to deal with it anymore. I ain't no kid.

I have 20% of my portfolio short the S&P via SH
I have another position in FXI puts which I have previously disclosed

And today I took a 10% position in FXC which is the Canadian dollar. It is trading at an all time low and I am taking a flyer (with a stop loss) of course.

You have to remember, I only look at one thing and that is price. Price tells me everything I need to know. I don't need to look at annual reports, income statements, balance sheets, statements of cash flows or even really watch the news. Those things are distractions. Price tells me everything.

Perfect example is 2013. As has been pointed out I made a few stabs at going short. Other than a slight pause halfway through the year, I got most of them wrong. But, I always ended up going long because I let price be my guide. If I did not, I would have lost lots of money because I was convinced that last year was going to be a down year. But, price is KING and stop losses saved me from myself. As it stood, I finished the year up and the short positions kept me from beating the S&P for the year. Luckily my gold short helped shore up some of the missed shorts.

The trade off is that if the S&P drops 10-20% this year, I will beat the S&P because I will be profiting off of the decline. That is my trade off. I try to profit off of both and not rely on one.
 
What is funny is that now all of the "experts" are saying "Oh yeah, you have to expect this kind of correction after a year like last year". However, I can link articles where the same experts were saying "2014 is going to be an up year too."

My point? I don't trust the "experts"

Remember a few weeks ago when I posted a link showing Buffett and Soros were pulling their money out of equities? You say follow the smart money. Looks like they are pretty smart.
 
Buffet may trim back slightly but he's basically longer than almost anybody.
I'm not aware of any billionaires doing mainly tech analysis.
I don't let short term or bear market downs bother me as nobody can time the market even 50 percent right.
 
The time to buy is when everybody else is selling. You don't want to buy when the "past performance" shows that a stock has been "up for years"... That's when it is the worst time to buy.

Sell when everybody is buying, buy when everybody is selling. With that, and only buying what you can afford, you will win overall. Nothing is perfect, but if you spread it out and think with your head and not your fear you can make money in the market.
 
The Dude said:
Buffet may trim back slightly but he's basically longer than almost anybody.
I'm not aware of any billionaires doing mainly tech analysis.
I don't let short term or bear market downs bother me as nobody can time the market even 50 percent right.
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Well, I don't know what Warren does or doesn't do. I am pretty sure that he has someone doing technical analysis and is much more sophisticated than I am. I also don't have the luxury of all of the sophisticated computers and inside information that Warren has. I am just a guy who likes to read charts.

I do not try to time the market. I just follow trends and right now the trend is down. Sure enough the trend will be up and when it is, I will go long. It is really as simple as that.
 
I do know what he does as well as 20 other top billionaire investors.
I use those picks with standard and poorest rankings and my own opinions to pick from 20 blue chip stocks.
I do sell about 20 percent frequently in and out.
 
Teflon Don said:
They have a hell of a dividend, but I don't like their chart.
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That's what I was thinking too. Not an impressive chart but that dividend is pretty damn good. I happened to look into them when I met a few of their employees out drinking one night. Only reason I happen to know of the company.
 
DigitalDave said:
That's what I was thinking too. Not an impressive chart but that dividend is pretty damn good. I happened to look into them when I met a few of their employees out drinking one night. Only reason I happen to know of the company.
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I will let Topspin aka The Dude comment on whether or not it is worth a shot given the dividend. That is not my area of expertise. I am a chart guy. Price never lies and I wouldn't buy just based on their chart dividend be damned.

On a separate note, I am kicking myself in the ass for not jumping on the VIX when it was at $12. It was a screaming buy and I missed a huge gain
 
Well if you think in terms of baseball, they aren't even a dingle A team.
Those types of stocks are the most dangerous.
 
The Dude said:
Well if you think in terms of baseball, they aren't even a dingle A team.
Those types of stocks are the most dangerous.
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Yeah, something seems sketchy to me. But, that is why I typically stay away from individual companies except when I dabble in Apple. But, again, I only go by charts on Apple.

The irony is that today was the day Yellen was sworn in as Fed Chair.
 
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