Projections for Tuesday Night
- Thread starter Rationalist
- Start date
it shouldn't really boggle your mind. I agree it's unlikely that Romney wins PA. I wouldn't bet on it. But it's not like it's california or new york or something like that.
Polls have been increasingly tightening
Some polls show only a 4pt lead. That's close or even inside the margin of error in most cases
Probably a bigger % of undecideds will break for romney
Hurricane Sandy might have been able to affect early voting among urban voters
I also believe the bradley effect may be in play. I think christie posted a recent poll that racial division and polarization is up in recent years. That could amount to a very plausible 1% of the electorate saying they are going to vote obama but vote romney instead. (i am pulling numbers out of my ass but in the past the bradley effect has seen differences as high as 2-3%. In a rustbelt type state like PA I don't find that beyond the realm of possibility
Rove and Co. are spending upwards of 4 million dollars there. We have 5 days left in the campaign now. They wouldn't just be spending that money for shits and giggles. They believe there is a benefit to spending money there. That media buy implies 1 of 2 things:
1) They feel they have a legit shot at winning PA and thus they are spending money there to bring about that outcome
2) They are using it as a bluff to keep obama from spending more money in states like ohio and WI
If it's number 2, then that implies that the Romney campaign feels that they have the luxury of blasting 4 million dollars in PA instead of shoring up and consolidating their message in ohio or WI. What does that tell you?
And for anyone to say it could be a sign of desperation because the Romney camp sees the writing on the wall in ohio, well - the writing would still be more on the wall in PA so I don't see them ducking out of ohio for PA in a hail mary attempt.
In conclusion, I don't think PA is likely, but saying Romney might win PA isn't like the most stupid idea of all time or anything. Besides, there always seems to be some rando state in an election that every thinks is going to go a certain way but it breaks differently.
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Darla
Rando is not going to catch on. This is alarming because before this only some stupid moron on Jezebel was using that as far as I have seen and I already blasted her fake hipster ass into the next week over that.
WTF you got it from Grind I don't know, but you can cut that shit out right now.
WTF you got it from Grind I don't know, but you can cut that shit out right now.
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Darla
ok i'll take your word for it. But I have my suspicious look on right now.
I don't understand how anyone who lives in a populous nonswing state can support the EC. We get no attention, no one caters to us, while Bubba Fishface in bumfuck Ohio gets his every whim catered to. It's a crock of shit and gives way too much power to non-populous states. Fuck them.
Dixie - In Memoriam
New member
Well, but what I said had nothing to do with Jews, and everything to do with demographics. Pennsylvania is an intriguing state, with an unusual dynamic not found in any other state, really. Philly is VERY liberal, Pittsburgh is also fairly liberal. The rest of the state is very conservative. Polling samples are almost always geared more favorably toward metro areas with the larger populations, which is why we see poll results from PA leaning toward Obama. It has nothing to do with Jews not being polled. This is where I think polls can be very misleading, because they aren't a true reflection of how people plan to vote on election day. When the phones ring in Philly and Pitt, lefties are going to answer and respond, whether they will actually turn out on election day, remains to be seen, my guess is, many of them won't. They'll participate in a phone poll, but come election day, they will not be as enthused as the millions in the middle of the state who never got the phone call.
Again, PA is Big Coal country, but how many freaking coal miners live in Philadelphia? My guess is, not very many! Your guy has essentially declared war on the coal industry, and it affects MANY in PA, who simply weren't called by the pollsters, and don't show up in the poll results. That will translate into an awful lot of real votes from real people, who the polls just didn't anticipate because of how they were conducted. I don't think this is some whimsical notion like the Jew example, I think it is very real and pertinent, and we'll see how it plays out on election night.
no one says they want to be wrong
but:
1) elections are sparse. even if you are wrong nobody is going to remember or pay attention to it in another 4 years. CBS poll was like 17th out of 25 in 2008. Nobody cares.
2) gets people talking, gets people checking out their page, which translates to revenue
3) some papers are lazy and want to get data out immediately. The story and the talk around it is likely more important, especially when taking into account #1
I guarantee you the campaigns aren't following the NYT or CBS or other random polls to help project what they do in the race. There is a reason for that. They have their own in house high quality pollsters who probably have a much higher grasp on what is going on. That goes for both campaigns
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
Not on who wins silly but on who picks the correct electoral vote count!!
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Well again, not everyone is selfish. Sometimes principles are more important.
Secondly, we choose our own path. We get ignored because we announce we already have our minds made up. There is no inherent bias in the system preventing NY from being a swing state. The population of NY themselves choose that outcome by their tendency to always stick by democrats.
Dixie - In Memoriam
New member
They don't. They are just oversampling in the larger metro areas, based on how people voted in 2008. In 2008, we had a completely different dynamic, and the liberal left was energized for Obama, putting PA in the blue. It won't be that way this time, but the pollsters only go by how things were the last time. They don't factor the shifts in the dynamics, and this is why polls are sometimes unreliable indicators. You don't think that polls are ALWAYS right, do you?
Another position Romney has flipped on, he stated, "coal kills". I guess that was in his more liberal phase.
I have zero idea what you are talking about in this post
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The Almighty
As usual, your hate filled rage has left you lacking the ability to comprehend what was stated.
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Darla
FIrst of all, that's hilarious coming from you who would step over the swollen bodies of disaster victims on his way to taco grande without a second look except maybe to sniff about the proles stinking up his street with their post-mortem bodily releases.
Secondly, you're wrong - there are plenty of undecideds in NY, but they don't count, they don't matter. IN a popular vote, everyone counts, everyone matters. That's how it should be.
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Darla
You used 'rando" instead of "random" something I caught a fake hipster wanna be trying to trend over at Jezebel. Maybe it was just a typo? I hope so!
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Darla
I guess this is the meathead meme of the month - keep repeating that Darla is a hate filled rager until it sticks.
Okay meathead.
Moron
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Darla
Man look at me go -I take my sword out of one cyber-skewed meathead, pivot, and skew another one!
Just call me Katniss - this girl is on fire!
Just call me Katniss - this girl is on fire!
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Darla
HAHA, succinct and on target!
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The Almighty
i think they are spending it for shits and giggles... cash flow is not a problem for either candidate, nor the super PACs.
Anything is possible, PA could go in your example. But some seem to think it is more likely than OH, WI, FL, NC etc.... Just don't see it.
I think Romney does indeed have the extra cash, as does Rove's PAC. But so does Obama. Living in CO, 99.99999999999999999999999% of the ads right now are friggin one political ad after another. There is only so much ad space and at this point I think the two campaigns (along with the local campaigns) are just pissing everyone off with the ad barrage.
I turn my cell phone on to silent mode now to avoid hearing the non-stop barrage of robo calls.