Projections for Tuesday Night

Rationalist

Rationalist

Hail Voltaire
I'll update this on Tuesday morning, but at this point I'm feeling pretty confident. Please post your projections as well, and refrain from attacking others - I want to keep this thread civil and on-topic.

51.8% / 315 EV Romney
47.0% / 223 EV Obama
1.2% Other

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ZOh

I do believe Romney will ultimately win Pennsylvania by a narrow margin. I'm fully aware the polling lends no credence to this prediction, but I feel the momentum building for such a victory.

Mod: can you pin this?
 
Rana said:
And we know, popular means nothing, it is all about the electoral vote!
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So you guys are on record now of loving the Electoral College? Just want to make sure. I remember in 2000 you guys weren't such a big fan. Even Obama and Hillary wanted to do away with it.

Are you sure you like it now?
 
I still think the EC is fucking stupid, but will gladly accept the results when Obama wins. Hopefully, that gets Republicans on board with the national popular vote act.
 
47.1 - President Obama
47.9 - Romney
5.0 - Other

Electoral:

281 - Obama
257 - Romney

Obama winning Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire

Romney getting Florida, Virginia and Colorado
 
Actually Jarod your prediction is an interesting one. It accepts the fact that Obama's ceiling is probably around 47%, but denies Romney a popular vote majority, instead arbitrarily assigning a relatively large chunk of the popular vote to third party candidates.

Granted, anyone's projection is inevitably tainted by some degree of wishful thinking - including mine. You could most certainly turn out to be correct, but I would tend to doubt it. Johnson, Stein, et al don't have the momentum to garner 5%.
 
Dungheap said:
I still think the EC is fucking stupid, but will gladly accept the results when Obama wins. Hopefully, that gets Republicans on board with the national popular vote act.
Click to expand...

I hate the EC system and want to switch to the popular vote. However, if Obama were to win the EC and lose the popular vote, I would laugh my ass off. Here's why.

What no republican will talk about is that in the runup to the 2000 election, the republicans privately believed that Bush might win the Popular vote and lose the EC. They made plans to revolt and refuse to concede because Bush winning the popular vote made him President. THis is all public record, but it amazes me how little it is discussed. It happened, it's public record, they were going to fight the electoral result.

So we know for sure they would have done that this year if...Bush hadn't lost the popular vote. We know what they would have done. They told us. Will 2000 prevent them from doing just that this time? At this point, having watched Republican hypocrisy for so long, I really would not bet on that! So let the fireworks begin.

Finally, regardless of how they win, Republicans simply never accept Democrats as legitimately elected President. In 08 they pushed their Acorn stole the election horseshit and with CLinton they claimed that both times he did not get 50% percent of the vote he was not legit.

So really, what difference does it make whether Obam wins the popular vote or not? If he is reelected, they will squeal like stuck pigs from now till doomsday.
 
Voltaire said:
Actually Jarod your prediction is an interesting one. It accepts the fact that Obama's ceiling is probably around 47%, but denies Romney a popular vote majority, instead arbitrarily assigning a relatively large chunk of the popular vote to third party candidates.

Granted, anyone's projection is inevitably tainted by some degree of wishful thinking - including mine. You could most certainly turn out to be correct, but I would tend to doubt it. Johnson, Stein, et al don't have the momentum to garner 5%.
Click to expand...

I know a lot of otherwise Republicans voting for Johnson.
 
Darla said:
I hate the EC system and want to switch to the popular vote. However, if Obama were to win the EC and lose the popular vote, I would laugh my ass off. Here's why.

What no republican will talk about is that in the runup to the 2000 election, the republicans privately believed that Bush might win the Popular vote and lose the EC. They made plans to revolt and refuse to concede because Bush winning the popular vote made him President. THis is all public record, but it amazes me how little it is discussed. It happened, it's public record, they were going to fight the electoral result.

So we know for sure they would have done that this year if...Bush hadn't lost the popular vote. We know what they would have done. They told us. Will 2000 prevent them from doing just that this time? At this point, having watched Republican hypocrisy for so long, I really would not bet on that! So let the fireworks begin.

Finally, regardless of how they win, Republicans simply never accept Democrats as legitimately elected President. In 08 they pushed their Acorn stole the election horseshit and with CLinton they claimed that both times he did not get 50% percent of the vote he was not legit.

So really, what difference does it make whether Obam wins the popular vote or not? If he is reelected, they will squeal like stuck pigs from now till doomsday.
Click to expand...

I remember that.
 
I am actually starting to come around to changing it. But I am concerned a change might lead to some unintended consequences.
 
Im of two minds, on one hand the popular vote makes sense, winner take all...

But many smaller states would never get much focus, the campaigning would be limited to large cities in the biggest states and much of governing would focus on that as well.
 
Dungheap said:
I still think the EC is fucking stupid, but will gladly accept the results when Obama wins. Hopefully, that gets Republicans on board with the national popular vote act.
Click to expand...

nope, i don't betray my principles out of political expedience.
 
Ive been wondering if we could come up with a new system that would foster a multi party system that would operate more like a parlamentary system so that coalitions would govern forcing a broader set of ideas into our government.
 
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