Honest Question: If Obama is re-elected, where does Republican Party go from there?

[BRUTALITOPS]

ok I read it anyway. BAC your article doesn't really say anything at all. Yes we have more hispanics. And that means what?

The article talked about them increasing in mainly california and texas. Texas is so fargone republican I think it's almost impossible to flip that state. California already goes democrat most of the time.

Furthermore, just because we have more hispanics doesn't mean x or y policy is guaranteed to come to fruition. There simply is no data that you provided in the above post that would suggest that.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I'm hoping for serious thought among the inevitable partisan humor. :0)

If the current trend holds up, Obama will be re-elected. It would mean that republicans couldn't even beat the black guy with a foreign sounding name and a bad record .. who, according to most republicans, isn't even an American or a christian.

To compound the dilemna that republicans find themselves in, their base is shrinking, and by 2016 they'll have an even less chance of winning national elections than they do now.

One thing for sure, they do not have the ability to conform and adapt to changing demographics and social evolution. Without that ability, their future as a viable counter-balance to the Democratic Party does not look good.

What I predict is a fracturing of the party. The Tea Party wing of the party cannot get along with anything other than themselves. Moderate republicans will have the example of their failures to once again have a voice in the party. I predict that they will fracture, and a third party will emerge on the right.

Thoughts?

As I've said before. This will precipitate a change of strategy for the Republican party. The Republican party, historically, has been a coalition lead by wealthy plutocrats. Today it is essentially a coalition of Plutocrats and white working class males (mostly southern and/or rural). As you've pointed out there's not enough of them to go around for Republicans to build a ruling coalition. To reform itself the Republicans will have to move away from the southern strategy, by using it they have alienated blacks, latinos, gays, women and the educated demographics. Those demographics are increasing in population where as the high school educated mostly southern white male demographic is shrinking. To become relevent in Presidential politics again Republicans will have to do some fence mending and coalition building. The easiest place for them to start would be by moderating their stance on womens reproductive rights issues and other issues important to women. They can also do the same with blacks and latinos but have a higher risk of alienating white working class males by reaching out to those demographics. They're certainly in a rough spot. They have lost the popular vote in 5 of the 6 last six Presidential elections if they lose this one. They need to do something.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

New England Republican is like a Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Joe Lieberman (kidding), Mitt Romney (the former) type.

AKA a Rockefeller Republican. The so called fiscal conservative, social moderate/liberal. Whom prior to the implementation of the southern strategy in the 70's were the majority of Republicans.

 

[Haiku]

As I've said before. This will precipitate a change of strategy for the Republican party. The Republican party, historically, has been a coalition lead by wealthy plutocrats. Today it is essentially a coalition of Plutocrats and white working class males (mostly southern and/or rural). As you've pointed out there's not enough of them to go around for Republicans to build a ruling coalition. To reform itself the Republicans will have to move away from the southern strategy, by using it they have alienated blacks, latinos, gays, women and the educated demographics. Those demographics are increasing in population where as the high school educated mostly southern white male demographic is shrinking. To become relevent in Presidential politics again Republicans will have to do some fence mending and coalition building. The easiest place for them to start would be by moderating their stance on womens reproductive rights issues and other issues important to women. They can also do the same with blacks and latinos but have a higher risk of alienating white working class males by reaching out to those demographics. They're certainly in a rough spot. They have lost the popular vote in 5 of the 6 last six Presidential elections if they lose this one. They need to do something.

They'd have to deep six the American Taliban, their base. Won't happen.

 

[NOVA]

Its somewhat of an odd question....
Where did the Democrats go when Reagan was elected twice, and G. Bush ?
Where did the Republicans go when Clinton was re-elected ?....

The bigger question is, "When will the country go with this President"?
We've already had a taste of his passing the buck and blaming anyone, everyone, and anything for the state of the nation and the world....something no President
has done with such regularity and without any consequence....ignoring the Congress, by ruling by edict....a Senate that won't even attempt to
pass a budget...something that is mandated by law as their duty....

Just because the media refuses to hold him accountable for anything doesn't mean we've all become blind to what we've witnessed with our own eyes....

 

[blackascoal]

BAC i will be perfectly honest, I don't have the patience to read your wall of text. Select the relevant bits if you want me to comment on them. I took a cursory glance and a lot of it was explaining why hispanics have lots of kids, just boilerplate stuff.

Also, can you provide me with the source of african americans considering themselves conservative? (not doubting that, would just like to see)

For African-Americans it is conservative within the context of a religious community and people. I don't believe there is a more religious people than African-Americans in this country.

Within that context most of us consider ourselves to be socially conservative. Not me.

For proof of that look no further than African-Americans being one of the most homophobic people in America. Prop 8 failed in California in large part due to black homophobia. I understand where that comes from, but I vehemently disagree with it.

With regards to America's changing demographics there is a plethora of information on this subject. From the article ..

"Wide areas of this country, including both of the two most populous states, are now what the statisticians call minority-majority – meaning that the accustomed majority group, non- Hispanic whites, are fewer than half of their people."

"Nationwide, non-Hispanic whites are still a large majority – but not so large as they used to be. They were 69.1 per cent of the population in the 2000 Census, but 63.7 per cent 10 years later. In California, the state with the most people and often a leader in social trends, non-Hispanic whites are 40.1 per cent. In Texas, second-largest, they are 45.3 per cent.

"The major reason for this massive change is birth rates. Among non-Hispanic whites, birth rates have dropped to a point barely above the replacement level"

"To get a sense of the future trend, look at the age profile. Americans over the age of 55 are now about 77 per cent non-Hispanic white. But, as William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution pointed out earlier this year, the 2010 Census shows that more than half of American three-year-olds are now minority."

In a nutshell, republicans are heavily dependent on a shrinking population .. specifically of white men.

Pat Buchanan can help you out with this ..

In the Long Run, Is the GOP Dead?
http://townhall.com/columnists/patbuchanan/2012/07/27/in_the_long_run_is_the_gop_dead/page/2

 

[blackascoal]

As I've said before. This will precipitate a change of strategy for the Republican party. The Republican party, historically, has been a coalition lead by wealthy plutocrats. Today it is essentially a coalition of Plutocrats and white working class males (mostly southern and/or rural). As you've pointed out there's not enough of them to go around for Republicans to build a ruling coalition. To reform itself the Republicans will have to move away from the southern strategy, by using it they have alienated blacks, latinos, gays, women and the educated demographics. Those demographics are increasing in population where as the high school educated mostly southern white male demographic is shrinking. To become relevent in Presidential politics again Republicans will have to do some fence mending and coalition building. The easiest place for them to start would be by moderating their stance on womens reproductive rights issues and other issues important to women. They can also do the same with blacks and latinos but have a higher risk of alienating white working class males by reaching out to those demographics. They're certainly in a rough spot. They have lost the popular vote in 5 of the 6 last six Presidential elections if they lose this one. They need to do something.

I agree with you entirely.

Thanks

 

[blackascoal]

ok I read it anyway. BAC your article doesn't really say anything at all. Yes we have more hispanics. And that means what?

The article talked about them increasing in mainly california and texas. Texas is so fargone republican I think it's almost impossible to flip that state. California already goes democrat most of the time.

Furthermore, just because we have more hispanics doesn't mean x or y policy is guaranteed to come to fruition. There simply is no data that you provided in the above post that would suggest that.

I'm not sure how you're missing the GLARING implications.

See: Pat Buchanan .. or you can ask Jeb Bush ..

Jeb Bush: Republican Party Needs 'To Reach Out To A Much Broader Audience'
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/26/jeb-bush-republican-party_n_1831267.html

I have more republicans talking about it if you need more.

 

[NOVA]

For African-Americans it is conservative within the context of a religious community and people. I don't believe there is a more religious people than African-Americans in this country.

Within that context most of us consider ourselves to be socially conservative. Not me.

For proof of that look no further than African-Americans being one of the most homophobic people in America. Prop 8 failed in California in large part due to black homophobia. I understand where that comes from, but I vehemently disagree with it.

With regards to America's changing demographics there is a plethora of information on this subject. From the article ..

"Wide areas of this country, including both of the two most populous states, are now what the statisticians call minority-majority – meaning that the accustomed majority group, non- Hispanic whites, are fewer than half of their people."

"Nationwide, non-Hispanic whites are still a large majority – but not so large as they used to be. They were 69.1 per cent of the population in the 2000 Census, but 63.7 per cent 10 years later. In California, the state with the most people and often a leader in social trends, non-Hispanic whites are 40.1 per cent. In Texas, second-largest, they are 45.3 per cent.

"The major reason for this massive change is birth rates. Among non-Hispanic whites, birth rates have dropped to a point barely above the replacement level"

"To get a sense of the future trend, look at the age profile. Americans over the age of 55 are now about 77 per cent non-Hispanic white. But, as William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution pointed out earlier this year, the 2010 Census shows that more than half of American three-year-olds are now minority."

In a nutshell, republicans are heavily dependent on a shrinking population .. specifically of white men.

Pat Buchanan can help you out with this ..

In the Long Run, Is the GOP Dead?
http://townhall.com/columnists/patbuchanan/2012/07/27/in_the_long_run_is_the_gop_dead/page/2

You're pretty much on the mark, BAC....
So the question you pose really has nothing to do with Obama getting re-elected....even if Romney gets lucky, those stats you post will remain the same....
The country is in change, no matter who gets elected.....

Its becoming more of a "those that ride the wagon versus those that pull the wagon"....and that problem will come to a head rather quickly as a greater number of
people realize that it is an unsustainable condition.......16 trillion in debt seems to be far to big a number for people to grasp and what it means for the future...

 

[blackascoal]

I'm surprised by how so many don't ever recognize the problem.

Can GOP survive its 'minority problem'?

Polls show that the GOP continues to be 'the party of old, white men' – and that could be decisive in the 2012 presidential election. Demographics suggest that the party must change, and soon.

Some Republican strategists are already preparing for the worst. The numbers, frankly, are dismal. Nearly 2 of every 3 Latinos favor President Obama to Mitt Romney. Voters in the gay and lesbian community favor Mr. Obama by the same margin. Women favor the president by 51 percent to 41 percent, according to an August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. And African-Americans? One poll suggested that Mr. Romney is being skunked: 94 percent to 0 percent.

Clearly, the GOP has a minority problem. But Republican strategists aren't just worried about November – they're worried about the Novembers after that.

If demographic trends continue to swell the country's minority population, and the GOP continues to struggle to grow its white, Protestant base, the Republican Party risks going the way of the Whigs it replaced in the 1850s. Already, some experts say, minorities are likely to swing this presidential election to Obama. And going forward, the arithmetic (as a certain former centrist president from red state Arkansas recently pronounced) says it all: This year, for the first time, births of nonwhites outnumbered births of whites in America, putting the United States on the road to becoming a majority-minority nation in three decades, the US Census Bureau reported. For the GOP, the rubber is finally hitting the road.

"The GOP cannot continue to be the party of old, white men and succeed on the electoral map, [and in] the White House, going forward," says Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist and chairman of the political-action committee Civic Forum PAC in Washington.

If it wants to remain competitive for power in Congress and the White House, the GOP knows it must make serious inroads with minorities, and soon. That means it must begin to change the policies that have defined – and isolated – it for a generation. Of course, doing that without alienating its base is easier said than done.

But if 2008 was the year that Millennials pushed Obama over the top, 2012 could be the year that minorities do the same. It is a warning shot.

The demographics are compelling. The country's minority population grew by 30 percent during the past decade, according to data from the 2010 Census, while the white population grew just 1 percent. In 1992, the minority vote made up 12 percent of the electorate. This year, it's expected to be 28 percent.

Racial and ethnic minorities accounted for 92 percent of the nation's growth since 2000, with most of that increase (some 56 percent) coming from Hispanics, according to the 2010 Census. Non-Hispanic whites are projected to become a minority of the population in 30 years, according to Pew Research Center projections.

"The tectonic plates of American politics are shifting," writes Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer and senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, in a paper prepared for a March 2010 "Future of the Parties" conference. "A powerful concatenation of demographic forces is transforming the American electorate and reshaping both major political parties."

These changes have left "the GOP … on the wrong side of history, demographically speaking," adds Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University in Washington.
http://news.yahoo.com/gop-survive-minority-problem-123800856.html

No clue this was happening?

No idea that republicans were talking about it?

I am forever amazed ..

 

[Mott the Hoople]

That's true .. so where do they go from here?

Abandon the Southern Strategy and adopt a new one that focuses on conservative but progressive issues like education, defense, infrastructure, pro-entreprenuership, energy independence, etc. If I were Republicans I would make some kind of national project, such as complete energy indepdence by 2030 or rebuilding our decaying infrastructure a central focus. They need to distance themselves from the libertarian and socially reactionary rhetoric that has alienated so many minorities. They need to chane their focus from being the party of Wallstreet to being the party of Mainstreet. They can win back many of the educated middle class with that approach. They will also have to consider abandoning their version of supply side economics, which doesn't work for the majority of people and which has really become a form of reverse socialism. They also need to adopt a pro science and technology rhetoric and tell the forces of ignorace and anti-intellectuallism where to go. You can't lead a great country to greatness with ignoramouses leading the way.

 

[blackascoal]

You're pretty much on the mark, BAC....
So the question you pose really has nothing to do with Obama getting re-elected....even if Romney gets lucky, those stats you post will remain the same....
The country is in change, no matter who gets elected.....

Its becoming more of a "those that ride the wagon versus those that pull the wagon"....and that problem will come to a head rather quickly as a greater number of
people realize that it is an unsustainable condition.......16 trillion in debt seems to be far to big a number for people to grasp and what it means for the future...

I don't disagree with any of that brother.

"The country is in change, no matter who gets elected"

Well said.

 

[blackascoal]

Abandon the Southern Strategy and adopt a new one that focuses on conservative but progressive issues like education, defense, infrastructure, pro-entreprenuership, energy independence, etc. If I were Republicans I would make some kind of national project, such as complete energy indepdence by 2030 or rebuilding our decaying infrastructure a central focus. They need to distance themselves from the libertarian and socially reactionary rhetoric that has alienated so many minorities. They need to chane their focus from being the party of Wallstreet to being the party of Mainstreet. They can win back many of the educated middle class with that approach. They will also have to consider abandoning their version of supply side economics, which doesn't work for the majority of people and which has really become a form of reverse socialism. They also need to adopt a pro science and technology rhetoric and tell the forces of ignorace and anti-intellectuallism where to go. You can't lead a great country to greatness with ignoramouses leading the way.

Good thinking .. but are they capable of that change?

Southern white males would feel abandoned and would probably revolt and bolt.

 

[NOVA]

I agree with you entirely.

Thanks

You may agree with Mott but both of you a living somewhat in the past with the typical stereotype bs you've been spoon fed for years....

Look where most of the red states are.....in the heartland of the country....rural, farmland, and rural people....far removed from the big

city centers of money and prosperity.....hardly the wealthy plutocrats you've been indoctrinated to believe the republican/conservative base is located.

There is no Hollywood in Kansas....or Wall Street in Wyoming..

 

[blackascoal]

You may agree with Mott but both of you a living somewhat in the past with the typical stereotype bs you've been spoon fed for years....

Look where most of the red states are.....in the heartland of the country....rural, farmland, and rural people....far removed from the big

city centers of money and prosperity.....hardly the wealthy plutocrats you've been indoctrinated to believe the republican/conservative base is located.

There is no Hollywood in Kansas....or Wall Street in Wyoming..

I agree with you again.

However, the base is not the party. The party is made up of plutocrats like Romney. Its elections are funded by people like the Koch brothers and Las Vegas moneymen.

The Republican base is as you've described it. Quite different from the plutocrats who control the party.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

you win some elections, you lose some elections. Just because one side loses an election doesn't mean a paradigm shift is underway.

On social issues, conservatism has risen by 7% in the last year:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154889/nearly-half-identify-economically-conservative.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152021/conservatives-remain-largest-ideological-group.aspx

Now, obviously, self identification isn't everything. I am sure there are some liberal dumbasses out there that consider themselves conservative. But overall, people recognize what "economically conservative" means and know what "socially conservative" means. Both have been on the rise for quite some time. Unions got crushed in wisconsin.

Obama may win the election, but it wont be because of a paradigm shift.

You're making a strategic mistake by placing ideology ahead of demographics. People identify far more with the particular demographic or cohort they belong to than some ideology. Ideologies can be co-opted by political parties and there's historical evidence to back that up. Bill Clinton in 92 coopted some of the Republican ideology very succesfully, which is a big reason why many on the far right hated him so viruluently. In the late 19th and early 20th century Progressives were a large part of the Republican coalition and they were coopted by Democrats during the great depression. Republcans coopted southern Democrat conservatism in the 1960's as a reaction to Civil rights legislation. BAC is right, Republicans don't have an ideology problem other than extremes of ideology has lost them quite a few demographics to the point that they cannot build a ruling coalition. In fact Dems have been affectively been coopting some Republican issues by managing them more affectively than Republicans have.

So self identifying yourself as a conservative doesn't mean squat if you're a Latino who is appalled at Republicans stance on immigration issues which disproportionately negatively affects Latino voters, if you see what I mean by way of an example?

Winning elections is not so much about ideology as it is about building coalitions from ofthen disparate groups of people. Republicans need to become better at this if they want to become more competative in Presidential politics and if they don't they will fall farther behind at all levels of national politics.

 

[NOVA]

I agree with you again.

However, the base is not the party. The party is made up of plutocrats like Romney. Its elections are funded by people like the Koch brothers and Las Vegas moneymen.

The Republican base is as you've described it. Quite different from the plutocrats who control the party.

and you just brush aside Soros, Kerry, Rockefeller, the Kennedys, and the multitude of very rich Hollywood elite, etc. that finance the Dems ? Those elite that like to
consider themselves somwhat above the peons....above the law....living like kings and queens off the fat of the land.....?

They are quite different than the blue collar union workers and others (those riding on the wagon) you see as their base....

Convenient to put the blinders on ..... it just isn't that one sided and you should already be fully aware of that....

We'll just have to agree to disagree with that aspect of the debate.....

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Grind is correct. How many times has your question been asked throughout history, I wonder? Both parties have probably said the other party is "finished" several times. It is never true. If Obama wins this election, there's a good chance the GOP will win in '16. Round and 'round it goes.

No one is saying the Republican party is finished. We are saying that they need to reform to include more demographics.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

They'd have to deep six the American Taliban, their base. Won't happen.

You're wrong. Most southern and rural white working classes are not fanatics Republicans have no choice but to reach out to other demographics. They can't afford not to.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Good thinking .. but are they capable of that change?

Southern white males would feel abandoned and would probably revolt and bolt.

OK, and if they did....where would they go?