Finish up what, you are just regurgitating the same, everyone knows what herd immunity is and how it is obtained, bottom line, it isn’t working in Sweden, nor are the percentages needed to reach it even as predicted by its advocates acceptable. Vaccines arethe only solution, and until those arrive, better treatments and containing the virus is the best strategy
Short tutorial on herd immunity for the unenlightened
- Thread starter Darth Omar
- Start date
what?
VACCINES PRODUCE HERD IMMUNITY -it's what a vaccine DOES - it produces reactive antibodies to an infection.
It's the same path as an infection by live COVID -that PRODUCES ANTIBODIES
Sweden has achieved herd immunity - but virus mutate. a new mutation or a second wave after this one could re-infect.
That's where the T-CELLS and memory cells step in
Yes, and that quarter of million you seem to find acceptable is projected by those supporting herd immunity, the Mayo Clinic article you provided, estimates 70%, meaning close to a half million dead Americans, you don’t think that is something Americans would be fearful of
Drop in Brazilian coronavirus cases prompts herd immunity questions
Scientists question whether herd immunity could be reached at rates lower than 20%
https://www.foxnews.com/health/braz...-in-coronavirus-cases-herd-immunity-questions
https://www.foxnews.com/health/braz...-in-coronavirus-cases-herd-immunity-questions
Scientists have been studying the possibility that individual variations in vulnerability reduce the ratio of infection at which herd immunity may be achieved. Some, scrutinizing data from European cities, theorize that herd immunity could be reached at rates lower than 20%.
Many other cities around the globe that were once devastated by coronavirus have begun to reopen without second waves, with some speculating that collective immunity has been reached.
Scientists question whether herd immunity could be reached at rates lower than 20%
https://www.foxnews.com/health/braz...-in-coronavirus-cases-herd-immunity-questions
https://www.foxnews.com/health/braz...-in-coronavirus-cases-herd-immunity-questions
Scientists have been studying the possibility that individual variations in vulnerability reduce the ratio of infection at which herd immunity may be achieved. Some, scrutinizing data from European cities, theorize that herd immunity could be reached at rates lower than 20%.
Many other cities around the globe that were once devastated by coronavirus have begun to reopen without second waves, with some speculating that collective immunity has been reached.
Vaccine immunity was not part of the thread, “DO,” implying the shutdown is not necessary, is talking about straight herd immunity, and Sweden has not produced herd immunity, last estimate after nine months was only 11%
the 70% is debatable.
due to memory cells of other SARS infections
It's looking like it's a lot less -see my other references.. deaths are dropping - it's complex -why i gave those links.
we were told +2,000,000 as reason for the lockdown
Now if I return with sources arguing the opposite from say the Huffington Post, are you going to buy it?
Not interested, you are not exchanging but promoting
"vaccines produce herd immunity".. (mantra) repeat until internalized.
There is all kinds of conflicting info on Sweden but there is also herd immunity looking in other hot spots.
Thee is disagreement - weasel see
of course i'll "buy it" -there is real questions about the numbers for herd immunity. Looks like "hot spots" and travel effect it as well.
But there is no question herd immunity is the way out - and vaccines also produce herd immunity
Darth Omar
Russian asset
Thanks for using the D word, I left that out from little essay.
One of the common tactics of the science-abusers is gathering some ‘approved authorities’ then labeling anyone who disagrees with them a ‘denier’. Which is kind of a loaded term, btw.
One of the problems with estimating a death count from herd immunity is we don’t know *the exact* death count to begin with. Which goes back to the way deaths are being recorded: including died with COVID screws things up in that regard.
A clue that this may in fact, be a factor is Sweden. Supposing Sweden did get to herd immunity [no reason beyond appeals to authority to think that they didn’t] they got there way far below anything resembling Spanish flu death count type numbers.
Berenson also mentioned the herd immunity number could be as low as 20%.
Darth Omar
Russian asset
*Assuming* it’s correct, yes.
So, Berenson, the right wing hack, has decided it could be as low as 20%. Well, that settles it. Where did he get his medical degree again? I mean really, he is certainly the worlds foremost authority.
Darth Omar
Russian asset
How many former NYT reporters do you know that are RW hacks lol?
Does one even exist? Instead of following your approved sources why don’t you get out of the box and learn something?
AProudLefty
The remora of JPP
Heh. The irony.
At least one. This guy is making bank on you dumbfucks. He's got a book full of misinformation, and you probably bought it. LOL at you.
Darth Omar
Russian asset
Who says it’s misinformation, your ‘approved authorities’ lol?
cancel2 2022
Canceled
You're such an ignorant man, Arsecheese!
Nicholas Lewis, an independent Climate Science Researcher, based in the UK.
Climate Science Researcher – Data Analysis – Probability – Statistical Inference – Climate Variability – Climate- Climate Science – Physics of Global Warming – Bayesian Inference – Radiative Forcing – Global Climate Model – Parameters
https://www.nicholaslewis.org/
Darth Omar
Russian asset
Isn’t Neil Ferguson a statistician or astrologist or something lol?
cancel2 2022
Canceled
Yet he's the kind of scientist revered by the Left and dopey buggers like Arsecheese.
Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time
In the history of expensive software mistakes, Mariner 1 was probably the most notorious. The unmanned spacecraft was destroyed seconds after launch from Cape Canaveral in 1962 when it veered dangerously off-course due to a line of dodgy code.
But nobody died and the only hits were to Nasa’s budget and pride. Imperial College’s modelling of non-pharmaceutical interventions for Covid-19 which helped persuade the UK and other countries to bring in draconian lockdowns will supersede the failed Venus space probe and could go down in history as the most devastating software mistake of all time, in terms of economic costs and lives lost.
Since publication of Imperial’s microsimulation model, those of us with a professional and personal interest in software development have studied the code on which policymakers based their fateful decision to mothball our multi-trillion pound economy and plunge millions of people into poverty and hardship. And we were profoundly disturbed at what we discovered. The model appears to be totally unreliable and you wouldn’t stake your life on it.
First though, a few words on our credentials. I am David Richards, founder and chief executive of WANdisco, a global leader in Big Data software that is jointly headquartered in Silicon Valley and Sheffield. My co-author is Dr Konstantin ‘Cos’ Boudnik, vice-president of architecture at WANdisco, author of 17 US patents in distributed computing and a veteran developer of the Apache Hadoop framework that allows computers to solve problems using vast amounts of data.
Imperial’s model appears to be based on a programming language called Fortran, which was old news 20 years ago and, guess what, was the code used for Mariner 1. This outdated language contains inherent problems with its grammar and the way it assigns values, which can give way to multiple design flaws and numerical inaccuracies. One file alone in the Imperial model contained 15,000 lines of code.
Try unravelling that tangled, buggy mess, which looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming. Industry best practice would have 500 separate files instead. In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.
The approach ignores widely accepted computer science principles known as "separation of concerns", which date back to the early 70s and are essential to the design and architecture of successful software systems. The principles guard against what developers call CACE: Changing Anything Changes Everything.
Without this separation, it is impossible to carry out rigorous testing of individual parts to ensure full working order of the whole. Testing allows for guarantees. It is what you do on a conveyer belt in a car factory. Each and every component is tested for integrity in order to pass strict quality controls.
Only then is the car deemed safe to go on the road. As a result, Imperial’s model is vulnerable to producing wildly different and conflicting outputs based on the same initial set of parameters. Run it on different computers and you would likely get different results. In other words, it is non-deterministic.
As such, it is fundamentally unreliable. It screams the question as to why our Government did not get a second opinion before swallowing Imperial's prescription.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technol...ial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/
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