Dire strait for some

Diogenes

Diogenes

Nemo me impune lacessit
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A US blockade of Iranian oil shipments remains an escalatory option that is liable to materialize once the Saudi Petroline to the Red Sea Yanbu export terminal and UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline ( bypassing Hormuz) reach their combined capacity.
 
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Remember that just yesterday, Tehran was reportedly floating a completely different condition: cargo paid in yuan.

Today, it’s “any country except the U.S. and Israel can pass.”

That is not a reopening. It is evidence the rules are being improvised in real time.

Two days ago, on March 12, Iran tried to pose as reasonable by saying ships must coordinate with its navy to transit.

Reuters also reported other selective assurances for passage, including a vessel changing its signaling to “China-owner” to get through.

We’ve seen this before. During the Red Sea crisis in 2024, the Houthis offered similarly selective assurances in Bab el-Mandeb. In practice, it was confusing, chaotic, and did little to restore the normal flow of ships. Reuters reported that many vessels caught up in those attacks had no Israeli connection, and UNCTAD said Suez Canal transits fell 42% from peak levels.

Shipping does not normalize because of slogans. It normalizes when passage is clear, verifiable, insurable, and durable. Right now, it is none of those things.

So this is not Iran loosening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. It’s PR spin designed to sound reasonable.

Until owners, crews, charterers, and insurers can move without ad hoc political tests or special permission, the Strait remains dire.
 
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