Corona Virus Peak Watch Thread

We didn't have a good day.

New deaths were way up. 2,407.

Active cases still on the rise, and even more people in serious or critical condition.

Still looking for that peak in Active Cases.
 
We are not shaping up to have a very good day.

Nearly 2400 Americans died today already.

Total deaths are over 28K, and nearly 14K are in serious / critical condition.

Today, we also identified nearly 28K additional new cases of covid-19.

It's a bad day for America.

I'll post the full numbers for the day later.

Obviously, we still have not reached the peak. We do not appear to be anywhere close to a peak.

Any thoughts of 'opening up the country' border on naively absurd wishful thinking.
 
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We are not shaping up to have a very good day.

Nearly 2400 Americans died today already.

Total deaths are over 28K, and nearly 14K are in serious / critical condition.

Today, we also identified nearly 28K additional new cases of covid-19.

It's a bad day for America.

I'll post the full numbers for the day later.

Obviously, we still have not reached the peak. We do not appear to be anywhere close to a peak.

Any thoughts of 'opening up the country' border on naively absurd wishful thinking.

The bulk of those numbers come from one region of the country. I also understand they expanded their COVID death recording ‘parameters’ just recently.

Not everywhere is NYC. That’s an absurd assumption, in fact. And if that assumption was plugged into the models, someone should be charged with malicious incompetence.
 
Wednesday

4-15-20

USA

Total Cases 644,089

New Cases +30,206

Total Deaths 28,529

New Deaths +2,482

Total Recovered 48,701

Active Cases 566,859

Serious, Critical 13,487

Tot Cases/1M pop 1,946

Deaths/1M pop 86

Total Tests 3,258,879

Tests/1M pop 9,845
 
The president said today the peak is behind us.

Trump Says The U.S. Is Past Its Peak On New Coronavirus Cases

Dr Birx said reported coronavirus cases declined over the last 5 days:

MSNBC

I don't know what they are looking at, but the number here tell a different story.

2482 Americans died today. That is the highest daily numbers since I began this thread 5 days ago.

There were over 30,000 new cases today. That is also the highest number since I began this thread 5 days ago.

These numbers are going up, not down.
 
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Here's some encouraging news.

Let's look at the best indicator.

The Active Cases.

Let's look at the record we have created so far:

Date ... Cases ......Difference from previous day

4-9 ... 420,611

4-10 ... 451,236 ........ +30,625

4-11 ... 479,252 ........ +28,016

4-12 ... 505,561 ........ +26,309

4-13 ... 526,353 ........ +20,792

4-14 ... 549,019 ........ +22,666

4-15 ... 566,859 ........ +17,840

You see what's happening?

The rise in Active Cases is getting smaller.

When that difference gets to zero, we are at the peak of Active Cases.

When it goes below zero the peak is behind us.

The death peak may still be rising at that point. People who are already fighting for their lives will still be fighting that fight, the 13K serious and critical cases, unless, of course, they lose that fight. But many have won. Recovered cases are now almost 49,000 people.

When the number of Active Cases peaks out and begins to fall, that will be the peak, the first peak. That's the peak we are looking for.

Looks like it's got a ways to go.

The prez and Dr Birx are not telling the truth. We have not reached the peak yet. The numbers are still rising at this point.

It's math. It's numbers. The numbers don't lie. The president does.
 
Thursday

4-16

USA

Total Cases 677,570

New Cases +29,567

Total Deaths 34,617

New Deaths +2,174

Total Recovered 57,508

Active Cases 585,445

Serious, Critical 13,369

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,047

Deaths/1M pop 105

Total Tests 3,398,140

Tests/1M pop 10,266
 
The good news for today is the death rate is better than yesterday, but it is still shockingly high. Over 2 thousand Americans lost their lives today to covid-19.

The Active Cases continue to rise, indicating we have not reached the peak yet.

The difference in Active Cases from yesterday is +18,586.

That figure needs to go to zero, and a little negative for a few days before we can really say the peak is behind us.

Don't let DT fool you with his nonsense. We have not reached the peak yet.
 
Friday

4-17

USA

Total Cases 709,735

New Cases +32,165

Total Deaths 37,154

New Deaths +2,535

Total Recovered 60,510

Active Cases 612,071

Serious, Critical 13,509

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,144

Deaths/1M pop 112

Total Tests 3,572,257

Tests/1M pop 10,792
 
Oh man. Bad numbers today, very bad.

2,535 Americans lost their lives to covid-19 today.

Active Cases increased sharply, by +26,626 cases. The numbers are still rising. There is no way the peak is behind us. That was just uninformed wishful thinking. Nonsense, basically.

We are up to 612,071 Active Cases, the number still rising, has not peaked. Is it headed for a million Active Cases?

The number needs to start getting smaller. That's how we know we have past the peak. The President was spouting nonsense, 'the peak is behind us,' total nonsense.

2/3 of the nation understands that.

We can't open businesses back up if we have not reached the peak and don't have adequate testing.

The president should have used the Defense Powers Act back in January when he limited travel from China, and ordered massive manufacture of testing capability supplies and PPE.

He had experts telling him this was coming. Why did he let us down?

It's just crazy to expect people to begin coming in close contact without knowing who has the disease and who doesn't. That's crazy talk.

"Gov. John Bel Edwards announced Thursday that he's forming the Resilient Louisiana Commission. He plans to include voices from a variety of geographic locations and economic backgrounds.

"They're gonna look at our economy, make recommendations to make our businesses more resilient so that we can open them up, get businesses open, get workers back to work. But do so in a way that adequately protects public health," Edwards said at his daily press conference.

That is something Quentin Messer Jr., of the New Orleans Business Alliance, is worried about, too.

"If you open too soon, and there's a high level of reinfections, that is devastating. That's coup de grace. You've eroded any possible public trust and people's willingness to travel to New Orleans and to even come to businesses."

Business owners worry reopening too soon could do more harm than good
 
Friday

4-17

USA

Total Cases 709,735

New Cases +32,165

Total Deaths 37,154

New Deaths +2,535

Total Recovered 60,510

Active Cases 612,071

Serious, Critical 13,509

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,144

Deaths/1M pop 112

Total Tests 3,572,257

Tests/1M pop 10,792


Is there hospitalization data? That's not 'recovered' right?

The ABSENCE of TESTING CRIMINAL negligence.
 
The president said today the peak is behind us.

Trump Says The U.S. Is Past Its Peak On New Coronavirus Cases

Dr Birx said reported coronavirus cases declined over the last 5 days:

MSNBC

I don't know what they are looking at, but the number here tell a different story.

2482 Americans died today. That is the highest daily numbers since I began this thread 5 days ago.

There were over 30,000 new cases today. That is also the highest number since I began this thread 5 days ago.

These numbers are going up, not down.

Will you ever get it?
The numbers are combined totals of confirmed and probable and presumed! The CDC has said that...not just me! They're inflated. Keep up.

Here is just ONE example...
New York City's Health Department said Tuesday it is now reporting "probable" Covid-19 deaths
of individuals who have not been tested for the coronavirus but are presumed to be positive.
The 4,059 probable cases pushed the death toll in New York City to nearly 11,000 victims.
 
Hello Darth,

WV checking in at 5 deaths.

Peak: Easter Sunday.

West Virginia had 612 Active Cases yesterday.

So far today the number is 544. Each day is totaled at GMT - 0.

7 more hours today.

Maybe West Virginia has indeed peaked.

Let's watch it for a few days.

West Virginia is up to 16 deaths with 3 new deaths yesterday, and none so far today.
 
Hello Darth,



West Virginia had 612 Active Cases yesterday.

So far today the number is 544. Each day is totaled at GMT - 0.

7 more hours today.

Maybe West Virginia has indeed peaked.

Let's watch it for a few days.

West Virginia is up to 16 deaths with 3 new deaths yesterday, and none so far today.

Were they confirmed, probable or presumed?
 
Saturday

4-18

USA

Total Cases 738,792

New Cases +29,057

Total Deaths 39,014

New Deaths +1,867

Total Recovered 68,269

Active Cases 631,509

Serious, Critical 13,551

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,232

Deaths/1M pop 118

Total Tests 3,722,145

Tests/1M pop 11,245
 
There was a reduction in the number of new deaths today, but caution is advised in hoping this is a trend. We saw the same thing last Saturday. It could be a function of how complete the reporting is on the weekends.

The Active Cases is up to 631,509 from 612,071 yesterday for a difference of +19,438.

Let's add the data from recent days to our running string:

Date ... Cases ......Difference from previous day

4-9 ... 420,611

4-10 ... 451,236 ........ +30,625

4-11 ... 479,252 ........ +28,016

4-12 ... 505,561 ........ +26,309

4-13 ... 526,353 ........ +20,792

4-14 ... 549,019 ........ +22,666

4-15 ... 566,859 ........ +17,840

4-16 ... 585,445 ........ +18,586

4-17 ... 612,071 ........ +26,626

4-18 ... 631,509 ........ +19,438

It's hard to say, but MAYBE we are seeing a slight drop in the INCREASE of Active Cases. That would indicate perhaps we are bending the curve a little bit. But remember: We need to see Active Cases level off completely, and begin to drop, before we can say we are past the peak.
 
Hello Darth,

West Virginia had 50 new cases today and 2 more deaths.

West Virginia's Active Cases are now 582. Total cases are 825.

That is a reduction in Active Cases, supporting the idea that WV is past the peak.

We'll keep tracking this to see if that holds true beyond the weekend.
 
Drat. Missed a day.

Oh well. Continuing on...

4-20

USA

Total Cases 792,759

New Cases +28,123

Total Deaths 42,514

New Deaths +1,939

Total Recovered 72,389

Active Cases 677,856

Serious, Critical 13,951

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,395

Deaths/1M pop 128

Total Tests 4,026,360

Tests/1M pop 12,164
 
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