Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran






Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand



You've got to hand it to Iran: that's masterful asymmetric warfare.If they pull this off and suddenly oil transiting through Hormuz is traded in Yuan, we're talking potentially close to $1 trillion less in annual demand for dollars (20% of the world's oil + LNG). It'd be insanely impressive to achieve this simply by controlling a 30-mile strait with a few missiles and drones.And it'd have compounding effects: $1 trillion less in demand for dollars means less foreign buying of US Treasuries, higher borrowing costs in the U.S., more inflation, etc.Heck even if this doesn't materialize, the mere fact they're suggesting it and that it's taken seriously by mainstream media like CNN is impactful in and of itself: at the end of the day dollar supremacy is also very much based on inertia. But inertia works both ways: once enough people start questioning it, the questioning itself becomes self-reinforcing.Imagine you're a central banker and you're seeing this: you're undoubtedly telling yourself "mmm, maybe it's time to hold a bit more yuan, just in case."It's also pretty ironic: the U.S. has weaponized the dollar against others countless times - including, of course, against Iran - but I can't think of a precedent of a country actively at war with the U.S. using the dollar's dominance as a weapon against them. Literally flipping the playbook, which sets an interesting precedent.All in all, in this war you really have the feeling to witness Sun Tzu's maxim about "knowing the enemy and knowing yourself" in real time: Trump obviously completely failed to understand what he was getting into. Iran, on the other hand, clearly studied its enemy's vulnerabilities, be it hitting Gulf countries until they question whether being a U.S. ally protects or endangers them, choking oil supply to inflict economic pain the US can't bomb its way out of, or now attacking the dollar itself. The U.S. only has bombs to reply, but hard to see how they could bomb their way out of problems that were entirely predictable consequences of their bombing in the first place, if anyone had spent five minutes thinking about what Iran might do in response.
 

The secret of international law is that it only works one way. When its applied to the strong against the weak its applied as restrictively as possible. Every attack is a war crime. Every bombing a violation. The only permissible tactic is to line up your ground troops like lemmings and have them gunned down.

When its applied to the weak against the strong everything is permissible. Its ok if Hamas or Hezbollah bomb cities. They dont have the technology to do better. Iran attacking neutral Gulf States is just great strategy instead of the crime of aggression.

This is why there is no incentive for the strong to follow international law and as a consequence the weak are not protected by it.

Theres actually one piece of international law that mostly works. UNCLOS. Thats because its treats both strong and weak nations the same and gives them the same baseline to claim sea areas. This is useful to nations because they need that stability for oil companies to engage in long term projects. A law that is useful and reasonable is actually followed.
 
The secret of international law is that it only works one way. When its applied to the strong against the weak its applied as restrictively as possible. Every attack is a war crime. Every bombing a violation. The only permissible tactic is to line up your ground troops like lemmings and have them gunned down.

When its applied to the weak against the strong everything is permissible. Its ok if Hamas or Hezbollah bomb cities. They dont have the technology to do better. Iran attacking neutral Gulf States is just great strategy instead of the crime of aggression.

This is why there is no incentive for the strong to follow international law and as a consequence the weak are not protected by it.

Theres actually one piece of international law that mostly works. UNCLOS. Thats because its treats both strong and weak nations the same and gives them the same baseline to claim sea areas. This is useful to nations because they need that stability for oil companies to engage in long term projects. A law that is useful and reasonable is actually followed.


Indeed.


 
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