Nomad
Every trumper is a N4T.
Miami Dade is still a solidly Democrat voting region of the state.
Have dems lost Florida forever?
- Thread starter Teflon Don
- Start date
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
It is hard to take you seriously when you make crazy predictions.
trump will get 51 or 52% of the vote in Florida, and 52 or 53% of the vote in Texas. In neither state will he have a double digit lead.
Republicans used to be able to count on at least 20 point leads in Texas, not it is closer to 2 point leads. Sooner or later, if this trend continues, they will lose Texas.... And then, oddly, in the next election they will lose Florida.
Biden got 64% of the 25 to 29 Florida voters, while trump got 55% of the over 65 Florida voters, so I do not believe you.
2020 United States presidential election in Florida - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
If that is true, then Florida is lost to Republicans.
That is extremely unlikely.
What gives me confidence is the delusional thinking of Republicans. This is a close election, and if Republicans want to win, they need to treat it as such. Republicans are not going to have a 40 point lead. They are not even going to have a 1 point lead. They might squeak through the Electoral College with 48% of the popular vote.
Althea
Althea told me...
LOL. Clearly you never even clicked your own link, or you wouldn't make such silly posts.
Bai Lan
Let It Rot
you mean blacks?
An Orange Cat
Verified User
I think you're going to be very surprised by the result in FL on Election Day and I think you're making an assumption that they're all voting for Trump.
I think that there will be a sizeable number of GOP voters who vote for Harris whereas you will see virtually no crossover Dem votes for Trump.
Blacks have rising life expectancies. Can trump voters say the same? No?
trump voters best correlate with worsening health outcomes. trump voters, and their extremely bad life decisions, are the reason overall life expectancies have been dropping over the last few years.
In a very real way, voting for trump is another one of their poor health decisions.
An Orange Cat
Verified User
This is correct. Some exit polls have DMP with an 18 point lead over Scott with Non-Party Affiliated early voters. If that split carries to the top of the ticket, which there is no reason to believe it won't, Harris will win Florida and the Dems will gain a Senate seat.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
??????? WTF are you even talking about??? You're WAYYYYY behind the times.....
Clinton (D) won Miami Dade by 30 points in 2016.
Gillum (D) won Miami Dade by 21 points in 2018.
Biden (D) won Miami Dade by 7 points in 2020.
DeSantis (R) won Miami Dade by 11 points in 2022.
Trump (R) will win Miami Dade by __?? points in 2024.
The "early voting tea leaves" currently show an R+6 lead in early voting in Miami Dade County, and R's normally outvote D's on election day, so it's looking like another double digit R wipeout of Miami Dade County.
An Orange Cat
Verified User
In ballots cast, perhaps, but you can't say that 100% of those GOP early votes were cast for Trump.
In fact, many of them may have been cast for Harris. Even if it's 5% that totally erases any chance Trump has of winning.
NPA early voters are breaking for Harris by 18%, according to exit polling.
Bai Lan
Let It Rot
hello, blacks are trump voters now. so are the youth.
they're leaving the democratic plantation, slaver.
Teflon Don
I'm back baby
can you provide evidence for this?
I think trump and Scott will probably barely win in Florida, but Harris and Mucarsel-Powell have real chances.
If Republicans cannot even win Florida, it is literally all over for this election cycle. Democrats do not need Florida, Republicans do.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
Brace yourself for the very real possibility that Trump actually WINS the so-called "popular vote" (which has no bearing on elections).
You think the vote of the people has no bearing on the election? It is not an exact correlation, but it is a close correlation. The popular vote clearly causes the Electoral Vote.
Brace yourself for the very real possibility that Trump actually WINS the so-called "popular vote" (which has no bearing on elections).
trump needs to get within 2% of the popular vote, and then have every little detail exactly work out. If it were really a landslide situation, trump would not have to worry about stupid little things working out.
An Orange Cat
Verified User
The primaries for one...Haley was still getting like 20% of the primary vote after she dropped out.
Also, the early vote pattern for Conservatives doesn't match what it has been since 2018 -not 2020, 2018- after spending the last 6 years trashing early voting why would Trump voters suddenly start voting early in this election when they haven't in like 6 years?
My theory for increased early vote among Republicans is the anti-Trump vote. I believe that what has pushed Republicans above Dems in early voting in some states are Republicans enthusiastically coming out to vote against Trump. And I'd say women over 65 is where many of those GOP votes for Harris will come from.
Bai Lan
Let It Rot
you have lost all the swing states and then some.
An Orange Cat
Verified User
It's gonna be close for sure, but I think people are just not factoring Dobbs into this and how pissed off women voters still are.
Why would a woman who voted for Democrats in 2022 bc of Dobbs suddenly vote for the guy responsible for it?
An Orange Cat
Verified User
Trump will lose the popular vote by 7-10 million votes.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
Right, just like you can't say that 100% of those DEM early votes were cast for Harris.
Some definitely were, but not "many". And the same goes the other way too. You keep forgetting that part. You are also ignoring the fact that R's usually LOSE the early votes cast, but this time around, R's are actually WINNING it.
No it doesn't, and you are still ignoring the fact that "5%" could easily be the other way around too (D's voting for R's).
This conversation isn't about exit polling.