Red Dawn

[Cypress]

Most Rightwingers acquired their knowledge of Russia and Russian strategic goals from watching the cult classic Red Dawn.

My predictions on the Ukraine situation >

1). Less than one percent chance of open war between Russia and USA, despite the alarmists pooping their diapers.

2). Zero percent chance Biden sends American forces into Ukraine. He has openly said as much.

3). Less than a three percent chance Russia launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine, with the goal of capturing Kiev and occupying the country.

Putin is not that stupid. A full scale invasion imposes enormous military and economic costs on Russia. Ukraine is not Chechnya, Georgia, or Moldava. Ukraine is a large country with a substantial military, capable of inflicting significant damage. Western economic sanctions would dwarf those seen after Crimea.

There is no significant domestic political victory Putin earns with a conquest of Ukraine. Most Russians consider Ukraine to be their little Slavic brothers; waging war on them is not something garden variety Russians want. It is not the same as fighting the "dirty" Muslim terrorists in Chechnya. A conquest of Ukraine is not a substantial domestic political win for Putin justifying the costs incurred.

4). Better than 50 percent chance Putin will order border incursions, asymmetric warfare, limited military strikes to destabilize Ukraine, test western resolve, and support ethnic Russian populations in border regions of Ukraine.


For diaper-poopers, I present a trailer from the rightwing classic, Red Dawn

 

[AProudLefty]

Good movie. Fuck the ratings.

 

[BidenPresident]

Military Industrial Complex. Don't pay attention to your own country--Look out there, a threat!

 

[AProudLefty]

Military Industrial Complex. Don't pay attention to your own country--Look out there, a threat!

 

[Cypress]

Good movie. Fuck the ratings.

I did like the movie.

Wolverines!

 

[BidenPresident]

I did like the movie.

Wolverines!

Filmed in my town. True.

 

[Cypress]

Filmed in my town. True.

Weird that the film makers imagined the first strategic military objective Russian airborne forces would want to achieve is to attack a high school and shoot the teachers and children.

 

[BidenPresident]

Weird that the film makers imagined the first strategic military objective Russian airborne forces would want to achieve is to attack a high school and shoot the teachers and children.

Like space aliens always wanting to land in the desert of New Mexico.

 

[signalmankenneth]

If Putin is foolish enough to invade Ukraine, the best defense would guerrilla warfare, it's a vast country too?!! I would be stockpiling weapons for that purpose if I were Ukraine too?!!

Guerrilla tactics offer Ukraine’s best deterrent against Putin’s invasion force

Ukraine can raise the cost to Russia by preparing for a long war complete with significant guerrilla activity behind Russian lines. Russian leaders are acutely aware of the price Afghan guerrillas extracted for the occupation of their country. Preparation for this kind of war requires recruiting and training personnel as well as establishing weapons caches quickly. Such efforts are already underway and will likely intensify in the weeks ahead.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...es-best-chance-against-putins-invasion-force/

 

[Cypress]

If Putin is foolish enough to invade Ukraine, the best defense would guerrilla warfare, it's a vast country too?!! I would be stockpiling weapons for that purpose if I were Ukraine too?!!

Guerrilla tactics offer Ukraine’s best deterrent against Putin’s invasion force

Ukraine can raise the cost to Russia by preparing for a long war complete with significant guerrilla activity behind Russian lines. Russian leaders are acutely aware of the price Afghan guerrillas extracted for the occupation of their country. Preparation for this kind of war requires recruiting and training personnel as well as establishing weapons caches quickly. Such efforts are already underway and will likely intensify in the weeks ahead.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...es-best-chance-against-putins-invasion-force/

I think the reason Biden and NATO are not offering any concessions to Putin, is because they are calling his bluff and are reasonably confident Putin has no intention of a full blown war and occupation of Ukraine.

I could be wrong, but that is my sense of it.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Good movie. Fuck the ratings.

Agreed.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Most Rightwingers acquired their knowledge of Russia and Russian strategic goals from watching the cult classic Red Dawn.

My predictions on the Ukraine situation >

1). Less than one percent chance of open war between Russia and USA, despite the alarmists pooping their diapers.

2). Zero percent chance Biden sends American forces into Ukraine. He has openly said as much.

3). Less than a three percent chance Russia launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine, with the goal of capturing Kiev and occupying the country.

Putin is not that stupid. A full scale invasion imposes enormous military and economic costs on Russia. Ukraine is not Chechnya, Georgia, or Moldava. Ukraine is a large country with a substantial military, capable of inflicting significant damage. Western economic sanctions would dwarf those seen after Crimea.

There is no significant domestic political victory Putin earns with a conquest of Ukraine. Most Russians consider Ukraine to be their little Slavic brothers; waging war on them is not something garden variety Russians want. It is not the same as fighting the "dirty" Muslim terrorists in Chechnya. A conquest of Ukraine is not a substantial domestic political win for Putin justifying the costs incurred.

4). Better than 50 percent chance Putin will order border incursions, asymmetric warfare, limited military strikes to destabilize Ukraine, test western resolve, and support ethnic Russian populations in border regions of Ukraine.


For diaper-poopers, I present a trailer from the rightwing classic, Red Dawn
[video=youtube_share;GhrW9Qcv01Q]https://youtu.be/GhrW9Qcv01Q[/vide]

Interesting analysis. I hope you're right.

Agreed, Putin crossing the line would present vast negative ramifications for both him and Russia. That's the problems with dictators; it's not always easy to predict what one man will do. Look at Trump.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

I think the reason Biden and NATO are not offering any concessions to Putin, is because they are calling his bluff and are reasonably confident Putin has no intention of a full blown war and occupation of Ukraine.

I could be wrong, but that is my sense of it.

Agreed. Still, to have peace, prepare for war. We need to be ready.

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

Most Rightwingers acquired their knowledge of Russia and Russian strategic goals from watching the cult classic Red Dawn.

My predictions on the Ukraine situation >

1). Less than one percent chance of open war between Russia and USA, despite the alarmists pooping their diapers.

2). Zero percent chance Biden sends American forces into Ukraine. He has openly said as much.

3). Less than a three percent chance Russia launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine, with the goal of capturing Kiev and occupying the country.

Putin is not that stupid. A full scale invasion imposes enormous military and economic costs on Russia. Ukraine is not Chechnya, Georgia, or Moldava. Ukraine is a large country with a substantial military, capable of inflicting significant damage. Western economic sanctions would dwarf those seen after Crimea.

There is no significant domestic political victory Putin earns with a conquest of Ukraine. Most Russians consider Ukraine to be their little Slavic brothers; waging war on them is not something garden variety Russians want. It is not the same as fighting the "dirty" Muslim terrorists in Chechnya. A conquest of Ukraine is not a substantial domestic political win for Putin justifying the costs incurred.

4). Better than 50 percent chance Putin will order border incursions, asymmetric warfare, limited military strikes to destabilize Ukraine, test western resolve, and support ethnic Russian populations in border regions of Ukraine.


For diaper-poopers, I present a trailer from the rightwing classic, Red Dawn

Thanks for this great analysis. Of course I say that because 1) it's true, and 2) I tend to agree although I fully concede that you know a LOT more about this region than the rest of us.

All out war, or even "incursions" followed by U.S. and NATO economic sanctions would cripple Russia. Like the rest of us they're reeling from supply shortages, inflation, the pandemic, etc. Oil runs their economy. If they shut off the tap... meh for us and our allies. It would royally screw THEM over though.

 

[Cypress]

Interesting analysis. I hope you're right.

Agreed, Putin crossing the line would present vast negative ramifications for both him and Russia. That's the problems with dictators; it's not always easy to predict what one man will do. Look at Trump.

I could be wrong. Churchill said Russia was an enigma

 

[Cypress]

Thanks for this great analysis. Of course I say that because 1) it's true, and 2) I tend to agree although I fully concede that you know a LOT more about this region than the rest of us.

All out war, or even "incursions" followed by U.S. and NATO economic sanctions would cripple Russia. Like the rest of us they're reeling from supply shortages, inflation, the pandemic, etc. Oil runs their economy. If they shut off the tap... meh for us and our allies. It would royally screw THEM over though.

I think you are right.

Crimea was a bit of a domestic political win for Putin, because Crimea was historically Russian, and Russians have emotional connections to Crimea.

As to ordering a full blown invasion of Ukraine, and occupying it, I don't think you average Russians sees a need to have a conventional war against their little Slavic brothers

 

[Dutch Uncle]

I could be wrong. Churchill said Russia was an enigma

Times change. Churchill was about as close to the Russian Revolution when he said that in 1939 as we are to 9/11.

 

[Cypress]

Times change. Churchill was about as close to the Russian Revolution when he said that in 1939 as we are to 9/11.

You're right.

I actually don't believe that caricature about Russia being an enigma wrapped in a mystery.

Russia is an enormous and complicated country, but it can be understood by proper historical analysis, deep reflection, and by the willpower to leave preconceptions and stereotypes by the wayside.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

You're right.

I actually don't believe that caricature about Russia being an enigma wrapped in a mystery.

Russia is an enormous and complicated country, but it can be understood by proper historical analysis, deep reflection, and by the willpower to leave preconceptions and stereotypes by the wayside.

Agreed. Part of it can be seen by the fact Russia has less than half the US population while being over half again as large as the US: https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/country-size-comparison/russia/united-states

Quality of Life differences:
https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/compare/russia/united-states

In many ways, Russia is still a maturing nation.

https://cdni.rbth.com/rbthmedia/images/2021.07/original/60e56c9985600a300c0b6148.jpg

http://www.ontrack-media.net/worldgeography/wgm3l2image3.jpg

 

[Wolverine]

Most Rightwingers acquired their knowledge of Russia and Russian strategic goals from watching the cult classic Red Dawn.

My predictions on the Ukraine situation >

1). Less than one percent chance of open war between Russia and USA, despite the alarmists pooping their diapers.

2). Zero percent chance Biden sends American forces into Ukraine. He has openly said as much.

3). Less than a three percent chance Russia launches a full scale invasion of Ukraine, with the goal of capturing Kiev and occupying the country.

Putin is not that stupid. A full scale invasion imposes enormous military and economic costs on Russia. Ukraine is not Chechnya, Georgia, or Moldava. Ukraine is a large country with a substantial military, capable of inflicting significant damage. Western economic sanctions would dwarf those seen after Crimea.

There is no significant domestic political victory Putin earns with a conquest of Ukraine. Most Russians consider Ukraine to be their little Slavic brothers; waging war on them is not something garden variety Russians want. It is not the same as fighting the "dirty" Muslim terrorists in Chechnya. A conquest of Ukraine is not a substantial domestic political win for Putin justifying the costs incurred.

4). Better than 50 percent chance Putin will order border incursions, asymmetric warfare, limited military strikes to destabilize Ukraine, test western resolve, and support ethnic Russian populations in border regions of Ukraine.


For diaper-poopers, I present a trailer from the rightwing classic, Red Dawn

Great Movie! Couldn't care less about the Ukraine. Nope, do not want war, let them figure it out. protect innocent civilians that is all!