StoneByStone
It's OK to Be White
I understand your point about Biden. The Democrats will vote for Mickey Mouse if he were the candidate. Centrists too. It's the Independents who will decide this election, as they do all elections.
I think those who chose to vote third party in '16, or not vote at all are now regretting that trump is in office. I would say that if Biden gets the nomination, his VP pick will be important. Tim Kaine was a horrid pick for Hillary.
Also...there was a lot of animosity aimed at Clinton by Bernie supporters. Many voted for trump out of spite. We don't have that this time around.
'16 was an anomaly. It isn't going to happen again.
Also...Biden going head to head against trump will be much different than Biden against the entire field now.
There probably are a lot of people who didn't vote, because they assumed there was no way a retard like Trump could actually win, and are now regretting it. But as you pointed out, it was also the "Bernie or Bust" people. And they hate Biden just like they hated Hillary. I've talked to some of these people and they refuse to support anyone but Bernie. They think if Trump wins again, it somehow sends a message to the DNC. Which is completely fucking ridiculous, but that's the thought process.
I don't think they'll be voting for Trump out of spite this time, considering what a disaster he's been, but they're also likely to stay home instead of voting at all. If we look at both of Obama's wins, and Trump's win, we see that the candidate with the passionate supporters win. The candidate with the supporters who are just supporting their party don't win.