The Democratic wave is growing, just how big will it be?

cawacko said:
El Oh El. Sure thing homeboy. Some more words of wisdom, learn to read what people say instead of just assuming.
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You're a fucking fraud and possibly the worst human being on these boards.

You're such a duplicitous and phony piece of shit, you can't even own up to your own garbage tactics.
 
Nordberg said:
polling shows Dems have an 11 percent edge. that is very big.
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your problem is that generics don't vote.........you have to look at the polls on each individual election.......as with the popular vote the fact you might have a 20% edge in California elects no one in Michigan or Wisconsin....
 
Irthriuth said:
you are partially correct.

yes, state by state matters, but you can still take away trends and patterns from national data. For an extreme example, if democrats were up by 40 pts nationally, it should be pretty obvious to anyone with a brain that would translate very well for them on a state by state basis.

Concurrently, lets say clinton in 2016 was projected to win the state of alabama by 10 pts. Now, one could say "hurrr durrr that's only one state, that doesn't have any say on what happens elsewhere" but again, anyone with a brain would be able to see that if clinton were going to win alabama by 10 points, that this would indicate an almost for sure electoral college victory, because if you are winning over a state 80%+ republican, you are almost certain to be polling as good if not better in any other state.

So, national data correlates to state data. This is where electoral projections in part come from. Thorough analysis will take into account polling within states but also look at national trends and other correlating effects to get an accurate picture.
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all I can say is that a 30% generic edge on the house elections sounds an awful lot like Trump's 30% chance of winning......
 
LV426 said:
You're a fucking fraud and possibly the worst human being on these boards.

You're such a duplicitous and phony piece of shit, you can't even own up to your own garbage tactics.
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Once again all you can do is name call and make projections. Hell of a guy you are
 
cawacko said:
Once again all you can do is name call and make projections. Hell of a guy you are
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Hey asshole,

I've apologized to you directly when I've overstepped or presumed something.

You've never once apologized or held yourself to account for the shady and duplicitous way you conduct every argument you make on these boards.

That's why I think you're a piece of shit garbage person, and why I'm better than you.
 
Irthriuth said:
no way. trump is way different than bush or romney. or mccain. in those cases people were voting for them in spite of the democrats. people are voting FOR trump. trump is a whole other beast.
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Romney was different in that he had a very strong opponent. Trump though is comparable to Bush in that both were unpopular but still won the electoral college.

Predictions about Trump getting re-elected are premature. If the Dems choose a senior policy maker cause its there turn, say for example Joe Biden, Trump will stand an excellent chance of getting re-elected by stint of Dems nominating some even less popular. Sound familiar?

Now if a former Democratic Governor that has a solid message and campaign organization that is from outside DC could do well Trump could be in trouble.

Point being there’s no use making projections about Trump until we have an idea who Dems are running. I’m not optimistic as I don’t see a current Dem front runner that I think can beat Trump.
 
LV426 said:
Hey asshole,

I've apologized to you directly when I've overstepped or presumed something.

You've never once apologized or held yourself to account for the shady and duplicitous way you conduct every argument you make on these boards.

That's why I think you're a piece of shit garbage person, and why I'm better than you.
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Duplicitous argument? You've lost your shit here because I said polling showing Clinton winning the EC was wrong as if that's some controversial statement. Yet you react like someone attacked your family.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Romney was different in that he had a very strong opponent. Trump though is comparable to Bush in that both were unpopular but still won the electoral college.

Predictions about Trump getting re-elected are premature. If the Dems choose a senior policy maker cause its there turn, say for example Joe Biden, Trump will stand an excellent chance of getting re-elected by stint of Dems nominating some even less popular. Sound familiar?

Now if a former Democratic Governor that has a solid message and campaign organization that is from outside DC could do well Trump could be in trouble.

Point being there’s no use making projections about Trump until we have an idea who Dems are running. I’m not optimistic as I don’t see a current Dem front runner that I think can beat Trump.
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what do you think of Kamala Harris? (Senator D.CA)
 
LV426 said:
So you're jumping around from non-sequitur to non-sequitur and it's pretty obvious why.

This debate started out with someone saying that the Democrats have a large polling lead on the generic ballot, and that lead could spell a blue tsunami. Conservatives, rattled by those polls, decided to indict and gaslight polling by saying polls can't be trusted because Clinton polled ahead of Trump, yet lost the election because of the EC. What the EC has to do with a popular vote poll is a mystery to me, but it would seem like you want people to think that Trump won the electoral college and the popular vote, because that way you don't have to accept the conclusions of the polling that shows a Democratic advantage in the midterms.

I see right through you.
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Look Dunce. Your faux intelligence on any matter is not making you look smarter to anyone other than yourself. Everyone sees right through you...
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Romney was different in that he had a very strong opponent. Trump though is comparable to Bush in that both were unpopular but still won the electoral college.

Predictions about Trump getting re-elected are premature. If the Dems choose a senior policy maker cause its there turn, say for example Joe Biden, Trump will stand an excellent chance of getting re-elected by stint of Dems nominating some even less popular. Sound familiar?

Now if a former Democratic Governor that has a solid message and campaign organization that is from outside DC could do well Trump could be in trouble.

Point being there’s no use making projections about Trump until we have an idea who Dems are running. I’m not optimistic as I don’t see a current Dem front runner that I think can beat Trump.
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i disagree with you on biden. I think biden mops the floor with trump. biden would play very well in the midwest, and I think democrats are desperate enough at this point to get rid of trump that the more extreme elements in their party will vote for him all day just to preserve their sanity. Democrats are putting a middle of the roader centrist type up in 2020, book it. if they put up someone like warren or california liberal they will have issues.
 
noise said:
what do you think of Kamala Harris? (Senator D.CA)
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I think conventional wisdom is that she would attempt to rebuild the Obama coalition. Meaning she'd lose. Just like those Democrats who tried to rebuild Bill Clinton's coalition lost. A combination of identity politics and progressive activism can probably win the Democratic nomination but would probably lose in the general.

Grind is basically right in his premise that what's set Trump apart is he's actually giving his supporters something to vote for. Everyone else just doesn't want you to vote against them. I've seen some of that coming out of the progressive wing of the party but progressives aren't exactly well known for winning elections.

What Democrats really need to do is provide an consistent and focused message on middle class/working class economic issues and what they will do to fight for working peoples economic well being. The idea of an "anti-Trump" candidate is a sure loser. As Bill Clinton famously said...and why this is beyond the grasp of so many Democrats is beyond me...is "It's the economy stupid."
 
Irthriuth said:
i disagree with you on biden. I think biden mops the floor with trump. biden would play very well in the midwest, and I think democrats are desperate enough at this point to get rid of trump that the more extreme elements in their party will vote for him all day just to preserve their sanity. Democrats are putting a middle of the roader centrist type up in 2020, book it. if they put up someone like warren or california liberal they will have issues.
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I think Biden could give Trump a good fight. I was using Biden as an example of what usually happens when a party nominates a candidate based on that's what the party bosses want. It rarely works out well.

I personally don't hold Trump in very high esteem but for what ever fucking reason no one, left or right, wants to take on his economic message. Democrats seem to be ignoring it as a bunch of white rednecks who don't know where their best interests lie and the Republicans are scared shitless of Trump populist economic message which runs counter to traditional Republican laissiez-faire pro-business capitalism but seem to have the smarmy attitude that the'll just co-opt him. Both have proven wrong and Trump has proven far more wiley and capable than most people would give him credit for.

Don't get me wrong I still believe he's a cynical opportunist who could give a shit less about good governance but he's damned sure proven he's smarter than the Democratic and Republican establishment.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I think Biden could give Trump a good fight. I was using Biden as an example of what usually happens when a party nominates a candidate based on that's what the party bosses want. It rarely works out well.

I personally don't hold Trump in very high esteem but for what ever fucking reason no one, left or right, wants to take on his economic message. Democrats seem to be ignoring it as a bunch of white rednecks who don't know where their best interests lie and the Republicans are scared shitless of Trump populist economic message which runs counter to traditional Republican laissiez-faire pro-business capitalism but seem to have the smarmy attitude that the'll just co-opt him. Both have proven wrong and Trump has proven far more wiley and capable than most people would give him credit for.

Don't get me wrong I still believe he's a cynical opportunist who could give a shit less about good governance but he's damned sure proven he's smarter than the Democratic and Republican establishment.
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Mott, if you do not want to run for office at least become a political columnist or something. Direct and to the point with you. No bullshit. Refreshing.
 
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