Will the lights go out in Germany this winter

cancel2 2022

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Merkel left her nation reliant on Putin's gas and now councils are turning off hot water and threatening floodlights at football stadiums... but ROBERT HARDMAN reveals many fear there's far worse to come

A sunny day like this, hordes of children are jumping in and out of the water while pensioners dawdle up and down the slow lane. Few have noticed that this pool is a little chillier than usual.

These public baths, among the oldest in Germany’s second-largest city, Hamburg, are as popular as ever. No one seems bothered that the management have turned the thermostat down a few notches — from 28c to 25c to be precise.

What, though, will they think, as autumn gives way to winter, if the heating goes off altogether?

A couple of hours drive away, I find that the cafes are buzzing and the mood is happy enough in the pretty town of Oldenburg, near the Dutch border. But upstairs, in the grand old Town Hall, I find Mr Mayor carefully drawing up plans which, he hopes, might just help avert civil disorder this winter.

Jurgen Krogmann has his jacket off and his windows wide open. That is because he has had the air conditioning in every public building in town switched off. Now, he is looking ahead and trying to work out how to make more dramatic savings in the darker, colder months ahead.

We really need to start conserving energy now because we will need all we can get later in the year,’ says Mr Krogmann, who also sits on the board of his regional energy company, EWE.

He is the author of a punchy 30-point energy-saving plan which is now being adopted by town halls and councils all over Germany. His cumulative list of measures already includes a ban on hot water in public places, even schools.

Visit a loo anywhere in Oldenburg’s public domain from now on and you will find that there is only cold water with which to wash your hands.

No great sacrifice right now, of course, but this is just part of a very serious programme to acclimatise 83 million Germans to the fact that there is a monumental energy crisis coming down the track.

And, a few months from now, they may not merely be facing further eyewatering hikes in energy prices, just like consumers in Britain. Here in Germany, they are very worried there may be no energy at all.

And that poses serious threat of unrest, plus severe damage to Europe’s largest economy, one wholly dependent on its energy-guzzling manufacturing sector.

The principal cause is clear enough: the war in Ukraine and bad planning. For many years, the German government has built its economy on an assumption of indefinite quantities of cheap gas from Russia.

Angela Merkel may have been the darling of a gushing Western commentariat for all those years, but it is clear that her country is now paying the price for her reliance on Russian fuel in tandem with her decision to shut down Germany’s nuclear power industry.

This month, Russia has finally switched off the gas tap, citing pre-planned ‘maintenance’ issues with the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. If it comes back on, as planned, on July 22, it probably won’t be for long. Everyone knows that President Putin’s overarching foreign policy strategy is to promote instability across the West.

Read more: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11019179/ROBERT-HARDMAN-lights-Germany-winter.html
 
Germany can freeze this winter.

Any country that depends on the Russians for their energy needs gets what they richly deserve.
 
Germany can freeze this winter.

Any country that depends on the Russians for their energy needs gets what they richly deserve.

Even now the Greens won't allow the remaining three nuclear plants to be turned back on, seemingly they are far more concerned about losing face than loss of lives.
 
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Even now the Greens won't allow the remaining three nuclear plants to turned back on, seemingly they are far more concerned about losing face than loss of lives.

Yes, they can not admit that they are wrong.

When the bitter winds of winter blow, Germany will capitulate to the Russians.
 
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Excellent article from Quillette .

Germany may be the only nation that has based its energy policy on absolution

Germans call it Energiewende (“energy transition”), and they aim to decarbonize their economy and lead the world by replacing their fossil fuel and nuclear plants with renewable energy. Germany is the first major nation to undertake such an effort, and, as hoped for, their early adoption of renewables has catalyzed a spectacular drop in costs for those technologies. A reporter summed up German attitudes towards the Energiewende, writing, “Germans would then at last feel that they have gone from being world-destroyers in the 20th century to world-saviors in the 21st.”

The Energiewende gained legislative support in 2010, and Germany spent nearly 202 billion euros on renewable energy projects from 2013 to 2020. Since 2010, the share of German electricity generation that has come from solar and wind power has risen from 8 percent to 31 percent, no small feat.

Yet Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has laid bare critical weaknesses in German energy policy. Before the war in Ukraine, Germany received 55 percent of its natural gas imports from Russia. While that percentage has fallen since the war began, the European Union chose not to ban Russian gas imports because gas is so crucial to EU nations like Germany. Unsurprisingly, Putin has been using Russia’s gas flows to exert influence over Germany and the EU. Russia recently cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which connects Germany and Russia, by 60 percent, an action that coincided with the leaders of Germany, Italy, and France visiting Kyiv.

And it gets worse. Nord Stream 1 will be out of commission for 10 days due to scheduled maintenance starting July 11. Putin used maintenance issues as the pretense for the initial drawdown in Nord Stream gas flows, sparking fears from German leaders that Russia will simply refuse to reopen the pipeline after the maintenance. If Russia permanently cuts off natural gas exports to Germany, it will likely send the country, the world’s fourth-largest economy, into a severe recession.

In response to these pressures, German leaders have considered reopening shuttered coal plants to shore up their economy and national security. Coal is the dirtiest source of electricity, releasing more greenhouse gas emissions and deadly air pollution than any other energy. Boosting its production is a damning policy failure. How did the world’s preeminent renewable energy champion find itself in a situation where it would be reopening coal plants?

The truth is that the Energiewende was doomed to fail from the start. Germany bet big on solar and wind and shut down their nuclear plants when they should have forgone renewables and expanded their nuclear energy program instead. Germany’s anti-nuclear ideology is so rigid that they closed three nuclear plants in December 2021, despite the global energy crisis, and plan to close their last three nuclear plants this December, despite Russia’s energy extortion.

Solar and wind power have inherent flaws that prohibit them from ever forming the backbone of an industrialized nation’s electrical grid. They require nearly 100 percent backup because they depend on the vagaries of the weather. Just look at how energy from solar and wind fluctuates. In 2019, wind power on one day rose to 59 percent of German power generation, but it fell to as low as 2.6 percent on another day of the year. In the same year, solar peaked at 25 percent and bottomed out at 0.3 percent.

To control these swings and provide reliable power, renewables advocates argue that battery storage and hydrogen can store electricity and dispatch it when solar and wind aren’t producing. Germany’s largest battery storage program is its home storage systems, but years of battery storage installations have barely made an impact on the German grid. The country currently has an estimated 435,000 homes equipped with battery storage systems of various capabilities, and 145,000 home storage systems were installed in 2021. But there are 40 million households in Germany, and home battery storage systems usually last only a few hours, while the grid needs storage that can support variations lasting weeks.

Plus, storage of any kind incurs round-trip energy losses while increasing total costs, since the grid was originally designed to function without needing it. Cost and inherent inefficiency are the key problems facing hydrogen. German news magazine Der Spiegel reported on this problem in 2019:

From a business perspective, [hydrogen] isn’t worth it. Much of the energy is lost in the process of turning wind into electricity, electricity into hydrogen, and then hydrogen into methane – efficiency is below 40 percent. It isn’t enough for a sustainable business model.

German Failure on the Road to a Renewable Future
In 2011, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the country was turning away from nuclear energy in favor of a renewable future. Since then, however, progress has been limited. Berlin has wasted billions of euros and resistance is mounting.

Renewables actually lock in fossil fuels because they can’t finish the job. This helps explain why Germany depends heavily on Russian natural gas.

Another essential issue with solar and wind power is that they lack energy density. A power source with low energy density takes more space and physical materials to generate electricity than a source with high energy density. Solar plants in Germany take up approximately 500 times more land than nuclear plants, and wind clocks in at 415 times more.

These steep land costs eventually trigger intense local opposition. Most people don’t want to live near electrical infrastructure, and renewables are more likely to be near people than energy-dense sources like nuclear. In Germany, only 12 percent of the 7,700 kilometers of transmission needed for the Energiewende had been built as of 2019, in part because of local opposition. The slow pace of transmission expansion and a stark slowdown in wind turbine construction led Der Spiegel to determine that “[t]he wind power boom is over.”

Renewables can’t decarbonize or power a modern economy. There’s only one source of clean power that can replace fossil fuels at scale while having minimal land-use and environmental impacts. That’s nuclear generated, the highest of any nation.

However, France’s current situation undermines its reputation as a success story. Around half of France’s 56 nuclear reactors are currently offline, a record for the country. They are out of commission because of delayed safety checks due to COVID-19 lockdowns and embarrassing, unforeseen maintenance issues. Usually, France is a net exporter of energy, but it may have to import power this coming winter and is facing the prospect of blackouts.

This fiasco has little to do with nuclear power and much more to do with poor management by the French government. For decades, France haemorrhaged money from its state-run nuclear program, and some of its leaders have been openly antagonistic to it. Other nations with nuclear programs have not seen the same issues. Even Germany’s remaining reactors have been operating brilliantly.

Only nuclear energy can replace fossil fuels and power a prosperous nation. The Energiewende is well-intentioned, and it can be saved. If Germany begins a massive investment in nuclear, it can abandon coal and be the Western nation that re-learns how to build nuclear quickly and affordably. But it won’t be easy; many Germans have an emotional bond with the Energiewende, and renewables are still overwhelmingly popular. But hard facts can change minds. German support for keeping their nuclear plants open is rising because of the Russian gas crisis. If their leaders make the case for nuclear, then they can be the nation that decarbonizes the world and saves millions of lives by reducing air pollution. No other policy could better redeem a nation.

https://quillette.com/2022/07/14/germanys-energy-catastrophe/
 
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well. you expand NATO, you mercilessly sanction Russia at the drop of a hat,
then wonder where the LNG went
Too bad it came to this. Russian gas for Europe is a natural trade and most cost efficient for everyone

Time to clean out that wood pellet stove I guess
 
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