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Dunning-Kruger Effect
A psychological phenomenon first identified in 1999 by Cornell University’s David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the effect describes the tendency of those who lack information on a subject or topic to erroneously overestimate their knowledge or skill in said area. In other words, to know how bad you are at something, you need to have some knowledge of what it takes to be good at it, without which, you’re likely to be overconfident about your competency. (Conversely, if you have a lot of knowledge about a certain thing, and a fairly good understanding of its complexity, you’re more likely to underestimate your abilities.) The principle might be regarded as the inverse proof of the famous Einstein truism, which states, “The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” It also brings to mind the old adage, “A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.”
In a recent op-ed for Politico titled [41], “The Psychological Quirk That Explains Why You Love Donald Trump,” Dunning concluded that the effect extends to “political judgment”:
The numbers bear this out. In study [43] after [44] study [45], researchers find that college-educated voters are statistically far more likely to vote for Clinton than for Trump. What’s more, Fox News watchers are the most [46] misinformed of television news consumers, scoring even lower than those who consume no news at all, and Fox viewers mostly fall [47] into the Trump camp.
For millions of Americans and people around the world [58], the thought of having a race-baiting, sexual assault-promoting, xenophobic, policy-ignorant demagogue in the White House is a genuinely scary prospect, one frightening enough to keep them up at night. Back in April, the Washington Post [59] spoke with numerous psychologists and massage therapists who reported seeing a new strain of fear and stress among their patients. They identified this as Trump Anxiety, a crippling psychological condition that has everything to do with potential for Trump to become president, and falls under the umbrella of Election Seasonal Affective Disorder. All of the factors described above—narcissism, gaslighting, projection, trauma and PTSD, etc.—contribute to Trump Anxiety.
“Usually it’s combined with other anxiety triggers that they may be having, and it can cause sleeplessness, restlessness, feeling powerless,” Kimberly Grocher, a psychotherapist in New York, told Slate [60]’s Michelle Goldberg. “It can lead to feelings of depression.”
The pressure seems even more acute among those with histories of personal or familial trauma. Goldberg spoke to a therapist who said one patient, from a family of Holocaust survivors, told her “it feels to her like all the stories she heard from her grandparents.” Grocher, who is African American, says her patients of color have expressed fear about, “What’s going to happen in my community if this person is in office?”
The fear and anxiety surrounding Trump’s ascent haven’t only affected adults. A Southern Poverty Leadership Conference survey [61] found “more than two-thirds of the teachers reported that students—mainly immigrants, children of immigrants and Muslims—have expressed concerns or fears about what might happen to them or their families after the election.”
In the end, many are finding that their fear has been heightened by the prospect of a Trump presidency, and the question of what will come next.
By Don Hazen
A psychological phenomenon first identified in 1999 by Cornell University’s David Dunning and Justin Kruger, the effect describes the tendency of those who lack information on a subject or topic to erroneously overestimate their knowledge or skill in said area. In other words, to know how bad you are at something, you need to have some knowledge of what it takes to be good at it, without which, you’re likely to be overconfident about your competency. (Conversely, if you have a lot of knowledge about a certain thing, and a fairly good understanding of its complexity, you’re more likely to underestimate your abilities.) The principle might be regarded as the inverse proof of the famous Einstein truism, which states, “The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” It also brings to mind the old adage, “A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.”
In a recent op-ed for Politico titled [41], “The Psychological Quirk That Explains Why You Love Donald Trump,” Dunning concluded that the effect extends to “political judgment”:
“In voters, lack of expertise would be lamentable but perhaps not so worrisome if people had some sense of how imperfect their civic knowledge is,” he writes. “If they did, they could repair it. But the Dunning-Kruger Effect suggests something different. It suggests that some voters, especially those facing significant distress in their life, might like some of what they hear from Trump, but they do not know enough to hold him accountable for the serious gaffes he makes. They fail to recognize those gaffes as missteps…[T]he key to the Dunning-Kruger Effect is not that unknowledgeable voters are uninformed; it is that they are often misinformed—their heads filled with false data, facts and theories that can lead to misguided conclusions held with tenacious confidence and extreme partisanship, perhaps some that make them nod in agreement with Trump at his rallies.”
Throw in a little confirmation bias [42]—a cognitive bias that makes people interpret new information, including facts that directly contradict what they believe, in a way that confirms their preconceived ideas—and we're off to the races.
The numbers bear this out. In study [43] after [44] study [45], researchers find that college-educated voters are statistically far more likely to vote for Clinton than for Trump. What’s more, Fox News watchers are the most [46] misinformed of television news consumers, scoring even lower than those who consume no news at all, and Fox viewers mostly fall [47] into the Trump camp.
For millions of Americans and people around the world [58], the thought of having a race-baiting, sexual assault-promoting, xenophobic, policy-ignorant demagogue in the White House is a genuinely scary prospect, one frightening enough to keep them up at night. Back in April, the Washington Post [59] spoke with numerous psychologists and massage therapists who reported seeing a new strain of fear and stress among their patients. They identified this as Trump Anxiety, a crippling psychological condition that has everything to do with potential for Trump to become president, and falls under the umbrella of Election Seasonal Affective Disorder. All of the factors described above—narcissism, gaslighting, projection, trauma and PTSD, etc.—contribute to Trump Anxiety.
“Usually it’s combined with other anxiety triggers that they may be having, and it can cause sleeplessness, restlessness, feeling powerless,” Kimberly Grocher, a psychotherapist in New York, told Slate [60]’s Michelle Goldberg. “It can lead to feelings of depression.”
The pressure seems even more acute among those with histories of personal or familial trauma. Goldberg spoke to a therapist who said one patient, from a family of Holocaust survivors, told her “it feels to her like all the stories she heard from her grandparents.” Grocher, who is African American, says her patients of color have expressed fear about, “What’s going to happen in my community if this person is in office?”
The fear and anxiety surrounding Trump’s ascent haven’t only affected adults. A Southern Poverty Leadership Conference survey [61] found “more than two-thirds of the teachers reported that students—mainly immigrants, children of immigrants and Muslims—have expressed concerns or fears about what might happen to them or their families after the election.”
In the end, many are finding that their fear has been heightened by the prospect of a Trump presidency, and the question of what will come next.
By Don Hazen
