WaPo Tracking: 34 percent 'less likely' tovote for Clinton after new email revelation

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anatta

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A poll released Sunday shows more than 30 percent of likely voters say they are less inclined to support Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton after the FBI announced Friday the agency is reviewing newly-discovered emails potentially related to Clinton's tenure as secretary of state.

The ABC/Washington Post tracking poll was conducted from Tuesday to Friday, which means the survey’s 1,781 respondents could only be asked on the final day about the revelations regarding the new emails.

Still, the poll found 34 percent of the respondents were “less likely” to vote for Clinton and that she now leads Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by just a single percentage point, 46-to-45 percent, in a four-way White House race, with Election Day on Nov. 8.

The other two candidates are Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who, respectively, got 4 percent and 2 percent of the vote.

“She's the 46 percent girl,” Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway told Fox News on Sunday, arguing Clinton has consistently failed to increase her popularity among Americans who “cannot trust her, just can’t have this corruption.”

Clinton leads Trump by 4 percentage points, according to the most recent averaging of polls by RealClearPolitics. She had increased her lead in several polls after the release in early October of a 2005 audiotape in which Trump is heard boasting about his celebrity status allowing him to kiss and fondle women without invitation.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-for-clinton-after-new-email-revelations.html
 
Few notes about tracking polls:

1) There is core group that is sampled over and over. As such people may be pre-disposed to "change up their answers" from previous sessions. The same people can be polled more than once.

2) Less likely should not be equated to "will not." For example someone might have the opinion "yeah I was 100% voting hillary but now im not so suuuure.. maybe I'm only.... 95% now.. I have a slight reservation"...

If you framed the situation as the above, you would see it wouldn't be as meaningful. this is how polls can often deceive us.

so the 34% number doesn't mean a 34% drop or a 34% swing. If someone answered "yeah maybe I am slightly less likely but I basically am not changing my mind" they would count as one of the 34%.

Tracking polls are kinda dumb.

That said it's good to use as a snapshot for how people are feeling and how issues are resonating, and they are also useful for comparing scandals to each other because you have sort of an established baseline.
 
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Polls are unreliable....take for example the polls for this year alone....all wrong. 2016 primary tacking polls were way off target...as well as the polls concerning Brexit. One of the greatest failures of recent history was the 2014 midterm senate tracking polls....so errant from the final results in being laced with errors they were 5 times less reliable than the presidential exit polls that got it so wrong with the 2004 Bush re-election they had all the democrats shaking their heads as the polls indicated a several point victory for Kerry.....I personally remember watching Dan Rather almost break down into tears as he asked his cohorts at CBS on national TV, "Is there no way for "us" to pull this thing out.....how many states are left?"

I can understand....people openly drawing a line in the sand and choosing sides...I can respect that. What I can't bring myself to accept is the denial that a line even exists...and then the insulting intolerance of anyone that points out the hypocritical denial that the majority of the main stream media is nothing but a national campaign headquarters for liberalism...who use these tracking polls as nothing more than a tool for liberal propaganda.

For anyone that disagrees with my personal line in the sand and my support of this nations founding principles in the fact that TRUTH never evolves...and those principles apply just as much today as they did 250 some odd years ago...I would say this: Just be honest in your position...I can and do respect truth, I don't expect or demand that everyone agree with me in order to gain my respect...just truthful in your convictions.

I am more than willing to take the abuse of calling myself a Christian as the Christ enlightened us to the fact that hate would be generated by the mention of His very name...when anyone openly supported His New Testament Covenant...But don't attempt to blow smoke up my keester and tell me how tolerant and forgiving your free thinking liberalism is void of any bigotry and hate toward anyone. That entire game is boring and openly demonstrates a lack of cogent thinking in relation to reason and logic...its all based on reactive emotionalism not free thinking.
 
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brexit polls being wrong is kind of a myth I believe they were saying leave towards the end, it's just people didn't believe them. It was the people ignoring the polsl that were wrong about brexit.
 
anatta said:
The ABC/Washington Post tracking poll was conducted from Tuesday to Friday, which means the survey’s 1,781 respondents could only be asked on the final day about the revelations regarding the new emails.
Click to expand...

If Friday skewed a four-day poll this much, just think about what this newest revelation will do to a one-day poll: the election.

Stick a fork in her; she's done.
 
anatta said:
A poll released Sunday shows more than 30 percent of likely voters say they are less inclined to support Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton after the FBI announced Friday the agency is reviewing newly-discovered emails potentially related to Clinton's tenure as secretary of state.

The ABC/Washington Post tracking poll was conducted from Tuesday to Friday, which means the survey’s 1,781 respondents could only be asked on the final day about the revelations regarding the new emails.

Still, the poll found 34 percent of the respondents were “less likely” to vote for Clinton and that she now leads Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by just a single percentage point, 46-to-45 percent, in a four-way White House race, with Election Day on Nov. 8.

The other two candidates are Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who, respectively, got 4 percent and 2 percent of the vote.

“She's the 46 percent girl,” Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway told Fox News on Sunday, arguing Clinton has consistently failed to increase her popularity among Americans who “cannot trust her, just can’t have this corruption.”

Clinton leads Trump by 4 percentage points, according to the most recent averaging of polls by RealClearPolitics. She had increased her lead in several polls after the release in early October of a 2005 audiotape in which Trump is heard boasting about his celebrity status allowing him to kiss and fondle women without invitation.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-for-clinton-after-new-email-revelations.html
Click to expand...

that 34 percent are the trump base you stupid sack of weasel bile
 
Mr. Meeseeks said:
brexit polls being wrong is kind of a myth I believe they were saying leave towards the end, it's just people didn't believe them. It was the people ignoring the polsl that were wrong about brexit.
Click to expand...
I sat up till the small hours watching the referendum coverage and was convinced that Remain had won by at least 53 to 47.

Sent from my Lenovo K52e78 using Tapatalk
 
Mr. Meeseeks said:
brexit polls being wrong is kind of a myth I believe they were saying leave towards the end, it's just people didn't believe them. It was the people ignoring the polsl that were wrong about brexit.
Click to expand...

i recall goign to work depressed because the last 2 polls i saw was +5 nad +7 for remain. ALso farage conceded twice in the night because of those polls.

all good we won though :)
 
evince said:
the 34 percent are the trump base idiots
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Agreed...those polled were DEMOCRATS. More of your comprehensive cogent intellectual debating skills? :) You've made a believer out of me.....I believe that social communism and the Clinton's are the greatest thing to happen to the good ole USA since sliced bread turned up at the dinner table.
 
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