HOWDY - DOODY, Y'ALL
There is a mystery French trader known as the "TRUMP WHALE" who has made an estimated $85,000,000 (USD) on a series of Polymarket bets that Donald Trump would win the POPULAR VOTE in the recent Presidential election. At the time he placed his wagers, betters on Polymarket were calculating the chances of a Trump popular vote victory at less than 40 %.
On the 6th November, the "TRUMP WHALE" who referred to himself only as "Theo" (he is also known by the username: "Freddi9999").
The "TRUMP WHALE" shared some information with the WSJ about what had given him the edge in taking on the bookies I thought what he had to say was interesting, in particular, given how very baby ALL of the conventional polling companies and professional pundits got it wrong in predicting the results of the 2024 Presidential election !! In any case, I thought some members of JPP would find it interesting...so here it is.
The "TRUMP WHALE" told the WSJ that he had relied on "NEIGHBOUR POLLS in making his prediction that Trump would win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential election. A "NEIGHBOUR POLL" is where respondants are asked which candidates they expect THEIR NEIGHBOURS to support.
The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will INDIRECTLY reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbours plan to vote for..
At his interview with the WSJ the TRUMP WHALE citeed a handful of publicly-released polls carried out in September, 2024, using the "NEIGHBOUR METHOD" alongside the TRADITIONAL METHOD. The polls showed that Harris' support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbour would vote for, compared to the result that comes directly from asking which candidate they supported.
The "TRUMP WHALES" told the WSJ he saw this as convincing evidence that the main US polling companies/organisations were once again seriously underestimating Trump - EXACTLY AS THEY HAD DONE IN 2016 and 2020. The "TRUMP WHALE" said it was mostly the data from these polls that convinced him ti take the plunge.
THere was one other consideration that Theo mentioned which had convinced him to place his big wager on Donald Tump. This was a clever piece of analysis whereby "Theo" commissioned his own surveys to measure the "NEIGHBOUR EFFECT" using a major US pollster (which he would not reveal). Theo told the WSJ that the results were MIND-BLOWING to the favour of Trump.
THE DISGRACEFUL PERFIRMANCE OF ALL THE MAJOR US POLLING COMPANIES/ORGANISATIONS
The way I see it, there is no excuse for the failure of the main, national US Pollsters to predict the decisive Trump victory we saw on Nov 6th. This is the THIRD time they have screwed up in terms of seriously underestimating the vote for Trump. First there was 2016, then 2020 and now 2024.
2016....
You would think after having seriously underestimated Tump in the 2016 Presidential election, where pre-election polling gave the "Hildebeast" a 90% chance winning the race by a "country mile." I remember that election night very well...it started out with media coverage of these Dummycrat clowns hysterically cheering their heads off as the very first results came in. They were all gathered inside the venue in NYC where the Hildebeast's victory party was scheduled to go down later that evening.. Then at around 7:00pm results started dribbling in from Florida that were unpleasant and unpredicted - like a "fart in a crwded elevator". Next thing you know, it's 10:30pm and Trump has taken Florida. After that it started to "rain on the Hildebeast's parade BIG TIME. By 1:30 am Trump has Taken Pennsylvania. At 2:30 am the "Hildebeast" phones Trump to concede. The coverage of the evening ended with the media filming these groups of young, Democrat girls huddled together (on the floor of what was supposed to have been the "Hildebeast" Victory Party venue), most of them clutching a cute soft toy and crying their eyes out. The pathos was almost unbearable.
2020.
As y'all know the 2020 election was rigged by the Democrats and ultimately stolen from Donald Trump.; even taking this into account, 2020 was quite a close race. The is an organisation in America called the "AAFPOR" (THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION for PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH) which found that the national pollsters reporting ob the 2020 race seriously overestimated support for the Democrats by wehat it described as an "UNUSUAL MAGNITUDE, while underestimating voters who backed Trump. The AAFPOR summed up its research by saying that the polling for the 2020 electionIt was the WORST (least accurate) polling in 40 years.
2024
The polling for the recent Presidential election, however, takes the cake. Here we have all the "reputable" national pollsters all saying (for weeks before election night) that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are DEADLOCKED- that the race is too close to call- that the result is a "coin toss".
A few days before the 6th Nov 2024 election some national pollsters - including the poll aggregator "538", shifted slightly and predicted that Harris was more likely to win ( !!!! ).
How could any reasonable, person - any American voter with an ounce of what Trump calls "COMMON SENSE" possiblly believe that Kamala Harris; - a total f**king "Ding-Dong"; a totally incompetent, cackling "Banana"; a gibbering "Bubble-Headed Boobie", who refused to tell the people what her policies were during her campaign; who was so stupid that she was hidden from the media like the demented Joe Biden was in 2020, who ACTUALLY SAID ON NATIONAL TELEVISION , with respect tof her 4 years as Biden's Vice President - a period in which the Biden administration created more deadly/chaotic/ destructive crises and economic misery, foreign policyblunders and failures, etc in living memory - "THERE IS NOTHING I WOULD HAVE DONE DIFFERENTLY ( !!! ).
TO CUT A LONG STORY VERY SHORT, YOU WOUKLD HAVE TO BE EITHER A VERY IGNORANT and STUPID PERSON, or, A VERY "FUCKED-UP" PERSON TO HAVE VOTED FOR KAMALLA HARRIS IN THE RECENT ELECTION. THE SAME APPLIES TO PROFESSIONAL POLLSTERS WHO PUBLISHED ALL OF THE BS POLLS SHOWING HARRIS AND TRUMP RUNNING NECK-AND-NECK FOR WEEKS BEFORE 6th Nov 2024. WTF WAS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE ?? THE WAY I SEE IT THEY ARE "POLITICAL SCIENTISTS" AND THEY HAVE TOTALLY FUCKED UP AND NEED TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE (IN SOME MEANINGFUL WAY) FOR THEIR GROSS INEPTITUDE.
Dachshund Dawg
Dachshund the Loyal TRUMPER Hound !!
There is a mystery French trader known as the "TRUMP WHALE" who has made an estimated $85,000,000 (USD) on a series of Polymarket bets that Donald Trump would win the POPULAR VOTE in the recent Presidential election. At the time he placed his wagers, betters on Polymarket were calculating the chances of a Trump popular vote victory at less than 40 %.
On the 6th November, the "TRUMP WHALE" who referred to himself only as "Theo" (he is also known by the username: "Freddi9999").
The "TRUMP WHALE" shared some information with the WSJ about what had given him the edge in taking on the bookies I thought what he had to say was interesting, in particular, given how very baby ALL of the conventional polling companies and professional pundits got it wrong in predicting the results of the 2024 Presidential election !! In any case, I thought some members of JPP would find it interesting...so here it is.
The "TRUMP WHALE" told the WSJ that he had relied on "NEIGHBOUR POLLS in making his prediction that Trump would win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential election. A "NEIGHBOUR POLL" is where respondants are asked which candidates they expect THEIR NEIGHBOURS to support.
The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will INDIRECTLY reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbours plan to vote for..
At his interview with the WSJ the TRUMP WHALE citeed a handful of publicly-released polls carried out in September, 2024, using the "NEIGHBOUR METHOD" alongside the TRADITIONAL METHOD. The polls showed that Harris' support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbour would vote for, compared to the result that comes directly from asking which candidate they supported.
The "TRUMP WHALES" told the WSJ he saw this as convincing evidence that the main US polling companies/organisations were once again seriously underestimating Trump - EXACTLY AS THEY HAD DONE IN 2016 and 2020. The "TRUMP WHALE" said it was mostly the data from these polls that convinced him ti take the plunge.
THere was one other consideration that Theo mentioned which had convinced him to place his big wager on Donald Tump. This was a clever piece of analysis whereby "Theo" commissioned his own surveys to measure the "NEIGHBOUR EFFECT" using a major US pollster (which he would not reveal). Theo told the WSJ that the results were MIND-BLOWING to the favour of Trump.
THE DISGRACEFUL PERFIRMANCE OF ALL THE MAJOR US POLLING COMPANIES/ORGANISATIONS
The way I see it, there is no excuse for the failure of the main, national US Pollsters to predict the decisive Trump victory we saw on Nov 6th. This is the THIRD time they have screwed up in terms of seriously underestimating the vote for Trump. First there was 2016, then 2020 and now 2024.
2016....
You would think after having seriously underestimated Tump in the 2016 Presidential election, where pre-election polling gave the "Hildebeast" a 90% chance winning the race by a "country mile." I remember that election night very well...it started out with media coverage of these Dummycrat clowns hysterically cheering their heads off as the very first results came in. They were all gathered inside the venue in NYC where the Hildebeast's victory party was scheduled to go down later that evening.. Then at around 7:00pm results started dribbling in from Florida that were unpleasant and unpredicted - like a "fart in a crwded elevator". Next thing you know, it's 10:30pm and Trump has taken Florida. After that it started to "rain on the Hildebeast's parade BIG TIME. By 1:30 am Trump has Taken Pennsylvania. At 2:30 am the "Hildebeast" phones Trump to concede. The coverage of the evening ended with the media filming these groups of young, Democrat girls huddled together (on the floor of what was supposed to have been the "Hildebeast" Victory Party venue), most of them clutching a cute soft toy and crying their eyes out. The pathos was almost unbearable.
2020.
As y'all know the 2020 election was rigged by the Democrats and ultimately stolen from Donald Trump.; even taking this into account, 2020 was quite a close race. The is an organisation in America called the "AAFPOR" (THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION for PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH) which found that the national pollsters reporting ob the 2020 race seriously overestimated support for the Democrats by wehat it described as an "UNUSUAL MAGNITUDE, while underestimating voters who backed Trump. The AAFPOR summed up its research by saying that the polling for the 2020 electionIt was the WORST (least accurate) polling in 40 years.
2024
The polling for the recent Presidential election, however, takes the cake. Here we have all the "reputable" national pollsters all saying (for weeks before election night) that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are DEADLOCKED- that the race is too close to call- that the result is a "coin toss".
A few days before the 6th Nov 2024 election some national pollsters - including the poll aggregator "538", shifted slightly and predicted that Harris was more likely to win ( !!!! ).
How could any reasonable, person - any American voter with an ounce of what Trump calls "COMMON SENSE" possiblly believe that Kamala Harris; - a total f**king "Ding-Dong"; a totally incompetent, cackling "Banana"; a gibbering "Bubble-Headed Boobie", who refused to tell the people what her policies were during her campaign; who was so stupid that she was hidden from the media like the demented Joe Biden was in 2020, who ACTUALLY SAID ON NATIONAL TELEVISION , with respect tof her 4 years as Biden's Vice President - a period in which the Biden administration created more deadly/chaotic/ destructive crises and economic misery, foreign policyblunders and failures, etc in living memory - "THERE IS NOTHING I WOULD HAVE DONE DIFFERENTLY ( !!! ).
TO CUT A LONG STORY VERY SHORT, YOU WOUKLD HAVE TO BE EITHER A VERY IGNORANT and STUPID PERSON, or, A VERY "FUCKED-UP" PERSON TO HAVE VOTED FOR KAMALLA HARRIS IN THE RECENT ELECTION. THE SAME APPLIES TO PROFESSIONAL POLLSTERS WHO PUBLISHED ALL OF THE BS POLLS SHOWING HARRIS AND TRUMP RUNNING NECK-AND-NECK FOR WEEKS BEFORE 6th Nov 2024. WTF WAS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE ?? THE WAY I SEE IT THEY ARE "POLITICAL SCIENTISTS" AND THEY HAVE TOTALLY FUCKED UP AND NEED TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE (IN SOME MEANINGFUL WAY) FOR THEIR GROSS INEPTITUDE.
Dachshund Dawg
Dachshund the Loyal TRUMPER Hound !!