cawacko
Well-known member
The moving from North to South wasn't a surprise to me but the growth in the outer 'burbs was.
The Outer Suburbs Are Once Again Outgrowing Cities
New Census Bureau estimates show the Sun Belt shift regaining strength
Last year saw the strongest evidence yet that Americans are returning to traditional patterns in where they move—from cities to suburbs and from North to South—after a recession-driven pause of nearly a decade.
Central counties of metropolitan areas grew 0.7% last year while outlying counties grew 1%, according to new Census Bureau population estimates for the year that ended July 1.
After two years of roughly comparable growth, this marked the first time since the recession that outer suburbs clearly outgrew central cities and inner suburbs. As recently as 2012, central counties grew 0.9% and outlying counties, just 0.5%.
A combination of economic and demographic trends contributed to the shift, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. He said much of it can be traced to growing migration losses by central counties as job gains spread to more areas and industries. That has triggered recession-delayed movement by millennials establishing themselves and their families, he said.
The shift spells good news for Sun Belt metros that had seen strong migration from the North cut sharply since the housing-market collapse and recession of 2007-09. Las Vegas lost 5,000 movers more than it gained in 2011, but last year gained a net 28,000. Phoenix saw a gain of 4,000 in 2011 balloon to 51,000 last year. In Florida, many metros saw migration gains dip from 2015 but remain at more than twice the levels of 2011-13, including Tampa, Jacksonville, Deltona-Daytona Beach, Lakeland, Palm Bay and Port St. Lucie.
Within Sun Belt metros, gains are shifting to the edges. Davidson County, Tenn., the center of the 14-county Nashville metro, grew almost 1% last year, but a net 2,000 people moved to the rest of the country, its first net loss in domestic migration since the recession. However, suburban counties like Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson and Sumner continued to draw more movers than they lost, and grew an average of more than 3% last year.
Sun Belt gains are sapping some of the nation’s largest metros, which also face low birth rates, aging populations and scant immigration. Frey said that 16 of the 100 largest metros actually lost population last year, including Chicago, Cleveland, New Haven, Conn., Pittsburgh, Buffalo, N.Y., Milwaukee, Rochester, N.Y., and Akron, Ohio.
Other large metros continued to grow slowly, but saw migration gains as recent as 2011 turn into losses. Among them: Washington, Miami, Boston, San Diego, Louisville, Ky., and New Orleans.
The trend of migration losses even reached into Silicon Valley, where a red-hot tech economy has sent housing prices soaring. Last year the San Francisco metro area lost more residents to the rest of the country than it gained for the first time since the recession. Small annual losses in the San Jose metro area grew sharply. Together, they lost a net 33,000 movers to the rest of the country, up from an average of 17,000 in recent years. The overall population still grew slightly, boosted by immigration and a relatively high birth rate.
Rural counties next to metro areas also resumed growing, said Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire. He said this reflects the return of edge-focused growth that prevailed before the recession.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/03/23/the-outer-suburbs-are-once-again-outgrowing-cities/
The Outer Suburbs Are Once Again Outgrowing Cities
New Census Bureau estimates show the Sun Belt shift regaining strength
Last year saw the strongest evidence yet that Americans are returning to traditional patterns in where they move—from cities to suburbs and from North to South—after a recession-driven pause of nearly a decade.
Central counties of metropolitan areas grew 0.7% last year while outlying counties grew 1%, according to new Census Bureau population estimates for the year that ended July 1.
After two years of roughly comparable growth, this marked the first time since the recession that outer suburbs clearly outgrew central cities and inner suburbs. As recently as 2012, central counties grew 0.9% and outlying counties, just 0.5%.
A combination of economic and demographic trends contributed to the shift, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. He said much of it can be traced to growing migration losses by central counties as job gains spread to more areas and industries. That has triggered recession-delayed movement by millennials establishing themselves and their families, he said.
The shift spells good news for Sun Belt metros that had seen strong migration from the North cut sharply since the housing-market collapse and recession of 2007-09. Las Vegas lost 5,000 movers more than it gained in 2011, but last year gained a net 28,000. Phoenix saw a gain of 4,000 in 2011 balloon to 51,000 last year. In Florida, many metros saw migration gains dip from 2015 but remain at more than twice the levels of 2011-13, including Tampa, Jacksonville, Deltona-Daytona Beach, Lakeland, Palm Bay and Port St. Lucie.
Within Sun Belt metros, gains are shifting to the edges. Davidson County, Tenn., the center of the 14-county Nashville metro, grew almost 1% last year, but a net 2,000 people moved to the rest of the country, its first net loss in domestic migration since the recession. However, suburban counties like Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson and Sumner continued to draw more movers than they lost, and grew an average of more than 3% last year.
Sun Belt gains are sapping some of the nation’s largest metros, which also face low birth rates, aging populations and scant immigration. Frey said that 16 of the 100 largest metros actually lost population last year, including Chicago, Cleveland, New Haven, Conn., Pittsburgh, Buffalo, N.Y., Milwaukee, Rochester, N.Y., and Akron, Ohio.
Other large metros continued to grow slowly, but saw migration gains as recent as 2011 turn into losses. Among them: Washington, Miami, Boston, San Diego, Louisville, Ky., and New Orleans.
The trend of migration losses even reached into Silicon Valley, where a red-hot tech economy has sent housing prices soaring. Last year the San Francisco metro area lost more residents to the rest of the country than it gained for the first time since the recession. Small annual losses in the San Jose metro area grew sharply. Together, they lost a net 33,000 movers to the rest of the country, up from an average of 17,000 in recent years. The overall population still grew slightly, boosted by immigration and a relatively high birth rate.
Rural counties next to metro areas also resumed growing, said Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire. He said this reflects the return of edge-focused growth that prevailed before the recession.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/03/23/the-outer-suburbs-are-once-again-outgrowing-cities/
