The New Korean War

tsuke

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https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/2017/08/30/the-new-korean-war/

The New Korean War

For the record I fully support an armed intervention in North Korea. In my opinion the US has tried every other option and all of them have failed. Bill Clinton tried complete and total submission. Offering a yearly tribute in oil to North Korea as well as offering to build their nuclear program with American aid. Undisclosed provisions in the deal suggest that the North Korean leaders could have personally gotten something as well. It did not work. Bush Jr tried belligerence with economic sanctions. Stopping the tribute provided by the Clintons and then using the UN to contain North Korea. The regime did not care. Obama tried ignoring North Korea. That did not work. Now it is very likely that they have nuclear weapons as well as the means to deliver them.

Equally important is that I am confident Trump is the best man for the job. In my opinion Bush made two very critical mistakes in the Iraq war which could have changed the flow of history.

Preparation

This is the first mistake. When Bush was making his case for the war in Iraq he led the public to believe that it would have been an easy task. The US military would overwhelm the Iraqi army and their resistance would crumble. Even if this was the case he should not have said so. One of the most important strategies to managing expectations is to underpromise and overdeliver. This allows you to have a margin of error in case things turn out worse than you expect. In case things work out better than you expect then you can always congratulate the troops for doing a good job and keeping casualties to a minimum.

At this point I would like to direct you to the tweets of President Trump during hurricane Harvey. *At all times he was pointing out how big and terrible the storm was while praising the capability of Texas and the American people to get through the disaster. If you think that the storm is huge then you mentally prepare yourself for lots of damage and suffering. When things turn out to be less damaging than you expect then you can always give credit and praise the first responders.

When we finally go into North Korea Trump will be using this tactic.

Nation Building

This is the second and most critical mistake from Iraq. The US army is actually very good at conventional warfare. I divide the Iraq adventure into two episodes. The first is when we actually had an Iraqi army to fight and the second was when we were fighting the insurgency. The US was actually very successful during the first phase. In fact it was so successful and so widely covered that the entire thing felt like a video game instead of an actual invasion.

Things went south went we stayed instead of pulling out right after. As a nation the US is not equipped to handle insurgencies. We just do not have the moral fortitude to do the things required to defeat an insurgency or to sustain a campaign of attrition. Part of being able to implement successful operations is understanding your own limitations. If we pulled out right after unseating the Iraqi then we would have been able to declare victory. What ever happened to Iraq after would have been a thing for the foreign section of the nightly news instead of a national concern.

I am very confident that President Trump will not make this mistake. Nation building seems to be the last thing in his mind nor is sacrificing military efficiency for humanitarian concerns which is another good thing.

I am fully aware that leaving Iraq or in this case North Korea right away may cause a humanitarian crisis. I would rather the world deal with a humanitarian crisis there, after having achieved the downfall of the Kim regime, than have the United States deal with a humanitarian crisis here after LA gets nuked.
 
we're talking last resort here..although we are getting there... we aren't there yet-
and going into NK would no doubt cost 100kcasualties in Seoul..

We should try using our ABM's on the missiles now- make their testing worthless and improve our skills
 
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https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/2017/08/30/the-new-korean-war/

The New Korean War

For the record I fully support an armed intervention in North Korea. In my opinion the US has tried every other option and all of them have failed. Bill Clinton tried complete and total submission. Offering a yearly tribute in oil to North Korea as well as offering to build their nuclear program with American aid. Undisclosed provisions in the deal suggest that the North Korean leaders could have personally gotten something as well. It did not work. Bush Jr tried belligerence with economic sanctions. Stopping the tribute provided by the Clintons and then using the UN to contain North Korea. The regime did not care. Obama tried ignoring North Korea. That did not work. Now it is very likely that they have nuclear weapons as well as the means to deliver them.

Equally important is that I am confident Trump is the best man for the job. In my opinion Bush made two very critical mistakes in the Iraq war which could have changed the flow of history.

Preparation

This is the first mistake. When Bush was making his case for the war in Iraq he led the public to believe that it would have been an easy task. The US military would overwhelm the Iraqi army and their resistance would crumble. Even if this was the case he should not have said so. One of the most important strategies to managing expectations is to underpromise and overdeliver. This allows you to have a margin of error in case things turn out worse than you expect. In case things work out better than you expect then you can always congratulate the troops for doing a good job and keeping casualties to a minimum.

At this point I would like to direct you to the tweets of President Trump during hurricane Harvey. *At all times he was pointing out how big and terrible the storm was while praising the capability of Texas and the American people to get through the disaster. If you think that the storm is huge then you mentally prepare yourself for lots of damage and suffering. When things turn out to be less damaging than you expect then you can always give credit and praise the first responders.

When we finally go into North Korea Trump will be using this tactic.

Nation Building

This is the second and most critical mistake from Iraq. The US army is actually very good at conventional warfare. I divide the Iraq adventure into two episodes. The first is when we actually had an Iraqi army to fight and the second was when we were fighting the insurgency. The US was actually very successful during the first phase. In fact it was so successful and so widely covered that the entire thing felt like a video game instead of an actual invasion.

Things went south went we stayed instead of pulling out right after. As a nation the US is not equipped to handle insurgencies. We just do not have the moral fortitude to do the things required to defeat an insurgency or to sustain a campaign of attrition. Part of being able to implement successful operations is understanding your own limitations. If we pulled out right after unseating the Iraqi then we would have been able to declare victory. What ever happened to Iraq after would have been a thing for the foreign section of the nightly news instead of a national concern.

I am very confident that President Trump will not make this mistake. Nation building seems to be the last thing in his mind nor is sacrificing military efficiency for humanitarian concerns which is another good thing.

I am fully aware that leaving Iraq or in this case North Korea right away may cause a humanitarian crisis. I would rather the world deal with a humanitarian crisis there, after having achieved the downfall of the Kim regime, than have the United States deal with a humanitarian crisis here after LA gets nuked.
I am sorry but that's just bullshit, that is exactly what happened in Libya and look how well that went!!
 
we're talking last resort here..although we are getting there we aren't there yet-
and going into NK would no doubt cost 100kcasualties in Seoul..

We should try using our ABM's on the missiles now- make the testing worthless and improve our skills
That a gross overestimate, it would more likely be in the hundreds to low thousands. I suggest you read this and see that North Korea is mostly a paper tiger.

https://skeptoid.com/blog/2013/03/11/why-north-korea-cant-flatten-seoul/
 
That a gross overestimate, it would more likely be in the hundreds to low thousands. I suggest you read this and see that North Korea is mostly a paper tiger.

https://skeptoid.com/blog/2013/03/11/why-north-korea-cant-flatten-seoul/

Cavazos writes, North Korea probably has about 20,000 total artillery pieces, rocket launchers and heavy mortars. But Seoul, 30 kilometers from the DMZ, is out of the range of most of these weapons. The two pieces that would be able to hit Seoul, and which are the cause of such concern, are the M-1978 KOKSAN 170 millimeter self-propelled gun and the MRL240 M-1985 rocket launcher. As with every gun, rocket and spoon in the Korean People’s Army (KPA), there’s no telling how many they really have, where they are and whether or not they work.

Cavazos’ best guess, backed up by data from globalsecurity.org, is that the KPA has around 500 KOKSAN guns and 200 rocket launchers deployed in the DMZ and targeting the South Korean capital.
:good4u: good info -thanks
 
Comparing North Korea and Iraq is like comparing apples and oranges

We can't invade Norrh Korea without causing millions of deaths in South Korea and other Narions in the area, it is an inane suggestion
 
Military option is the absolute last option for NK.

Ironically, NK would be one place where regime change wouldn't be a guaranteed disaster because there's not a radical Muslim group within several thousand miles.

But no way do we invade NK. Bad idea.
 
Military option is the absolute last option for NK.

Ironically, NK would be one place where regime change wouldn't be a guaranteed disaster because there's not a radical Muslim group within several thousand miles.

But no way do we invade NK. Bad idea.

If there is any 'invading' to be done it would by the South Koreans. They know the territory and speak the same language. I can't help thinking that many in the so-called fanatical North Korean military would defect once they know that Kimmy was assassinated.
 
we're talking last resort here..although we are getting there... we aren't there yet-
and going into NK would no doubt cost 100kcasualties in Seoul..

We should try using our ABM's on the missiles now- make their testing worthless and improve our skills

i dont see any other option to be honest. Its going to get there sooner or later.
 
If there is any 'invading' to be done it would by the South Koreans. They know the territory and speak the same language. I can't help thinking that many in the so-called fanatical North Korean military would defect once they know that Kimmy was assassinated.

No question about that.

The only question is how many.
 
i dont see any other option to be honest. Its going to get there sooner or later.

Kicking the can down the road is actually an option. Then hope someone poisons Bowl Cut or whatever.

Of course, that assumes he'll never get rowdy with a nuke, but yeah.
 
Kicking the can down the road is actually an option. Then hope someone poisons Bowl Cut or whatever.

Of course, that assumes he'll never get rowdy with a nuke, but yeah.

so what if someone poisons him? If there is anything that has been proven without a shadow of a doubt in korea outlasting the current dictator does not matter.
 
i dont see any other option to be honest. Its going to get there sooner or later.

Sure there is options, living with North Korea with nuclear weapons is one, we already have several nations on less than friendly terms with the US that have nuclear capability
 
1 step at a time..If/when NK has a working armed ICBM then the debate moves toward imminent threat

Too many other options haven't been tried yet.

Pressure China more. Give Japan a nuke base...the mere threat of that will have China spitting wooden nickels. Start shooting down his missiles.

Take Bowl Cut out, somehow or other. You can't tell me we lack the capabilities to know where he squats down to poop.

There's a bunch of options that haven't been tried yet. Invasion is way down the road.
 
Too many other options haven't been tried yet.

Pressure China more. Give Japan a nuke base...the mere threat of that will have China spitting wooden nickels. Start shooting down his missiles.

Take Bowl Cut out, somehow or other. You can't tell me we lack the capabilities to know where he squats down to poop.

There's a bunch of options that haven't been tried yet. Invasion is way down the road.

Not wise to be spreading nuclear capability, and to deal with North Korea you are going to need China

I'm sure assassination has been an option for decades, but a risky one not knowing what you are left with nor how the North Koreans would interpret the act, keep in mind, we know the guy is a nutcase, but North Koreans see him as their savior

And before you ask, I don't know what the solution is, adding economic pressure on China may be a step, but realistically, I think we are going to have to live with a nuclear North Korea
 
Too many other options haven't been tried yet.

Pressure China more. Give Japan a nuke base...the mere threat of that will have China spitting wooden nickels. Start shooting down his missiles.

Take Bowl Cut out, somehow or other. You can't tell me we lack the capabilities to know where he squats down to poop.

There's a bunch of options that haven't been tried yet. Invasion is way down the road.

I'm not so sure about that,

This is different in that not only is the noodle doodle actually lobbing missiles capable carrying nuclear weapons on the tips, he HAS nukes.
We know their range.

Now I think the tipping point is do we have evidence that he is actually capable of arming these missiles with Nukes.
If that is the case the world would be derelict in just waiting around hoping he wont.
The man is a certified Nut, he is certified evil, certified defiant.

if he launches a nuke at anyone that is a game changer for the entire planet, we pre-empt that possibility by rendering him incapable there's really no downside given that Russia and China are on board.
 
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