Clearly, Putin is not going to win the war immediately. Almost everyone thought Putin could win in weeks, if not days, but that simply is not going to happen. He had some major victories, a year and a half ago, but since then has had major defeats, and tiny victories. It has cost him a major chunk of his army, when he has threats elsewhere.
Ukraine uses Deep Operation Strategy, which makes where and when its breakthrough happen to be somewhat unpredictable, but it does not appear they will have a major breakthrough this year. I hope I am wrong, and I might be wrong. There is still some hope for next year too... But we are just talking about hope, no certainties.
Putin rejected Chinese attempts to broker a ceasefire. He is hoping that he can hold out until a trump presidency, when he hopes Ukraine will be cutoff. He knows that if he leaves any of the Ukraine to grow in peace, it will show the world how successful Ukraine can be, and how much a failure Russia is.
Ukraine would not benefit from a ceasefire. It would just give Russia time to rebuild and attack again. Putin has never lived up to promises of peace, and never will.
So we all wait until 2025, and see if trump is able to win the presidency and betray the west... And something else that few people are talking about.
Shell production in America more than doubled in a year. Estonia multiplied their shell production by a factor of ten. NATO countries are all increasing shell production as quickly as possible. Early in 2025, the west will surpass Russia in shell production. Western shells are more accurate, so Ukraine does not need more shells than Russia... Still, if they have it, that would be good.
If trump does not win, that means Ukraine would have the upper hand in 2025.
Ukraine uses Deep Operation Strategy, which makes where and when its breakthrough happen to be somewhat unpredictable, but it does not appear they will have a major breakthrough this year. I hope I am wrong, and I might be wrong. There is still some hope for next year too... But we are just talking about hope, no certainties.
Putin rejected Chinese attempts to broker a ceasefire. He is hoping that he can hold out until a trump presidency, when he hopes Ukraine will be cutoff. He knows that if he leaves any of the Ukraine to grow in peace, it will show the world how successful Ukraine can be, and how much a failure Russia is.
Ukraine would not benefit from a ceasefire. It would just give Russia time to rebuild and attack again. Putin has never lived up to promises of peace, and never will.
So we all wait until 2025, and see if trump is able to win the presidency and betray the west... And something else that few people are talking about.
Shell production in America more than doubled in a year. Estonia multiplied their shell production by a factor of ten. NATO countries are all increasing shell production as quickly as possible. Early in 2025, the west will surpass Russia in shell production. Western shells are more accurate, so Ukraine does not need more shells than Russia... Still, if they have it, that would be good.
If trump does not win, that means Ukraine would have the upper hand in 2025.