The Long Term Budget Outlook

[Bonestorm]

Not too bad if Congress does nothing. The problem is that Congress will do plenty of stuff that will increase the deficit:

The top chart is the do nothing scenario. It is what happens if existing law remains in place. The bottom chart is the "alternative fiscal scenario" which assumes that Congress will do various things that Congress typically does that will increase the deficit.

Congress doesn't need some grand bargain to reduce the deficit. All it has to do is nothing. Alternatively, it could introduce a beefed up PAYGO that actually required offsets for tax cuts or tax increases if doctor reimbursement rates are annually increased. All these bullshit negotiations going on right now are insane not just from an economic perspective but from a practical perspective as well.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

To be quite clear, by 'existing law' you mean, let ALL Bush tax cuts expire and allow the AMT tax to hit MILLIONS more Americans.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...debt-explosion/2011/06/22/AGNwb2fH_story.html

 

[Bonestorm]

To be quite clear, by 'existing law' you mean, let ALL Bush tax cuts expire and allow the AMT tax to hit MILLIONS more Americans.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...debt-explosion/2011/06/22/AGNwb2fH_story.html

That is existing law.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

Over the long term, the CBO said, a projected explosion in government spending outside interest on the debt is “attributable entirely” to the ballooning cost of “Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and (to a lesser extent) insurance subsidies” intended to help finance coverage for the uninsured under President Obama’s new health-care law.

“The health care programs are the main drivers of that growth,” the CBO said, responsible for 80 percent of the projected rise in spending on those programs over the next 25 years.

Tax collections could keep pace with those costs if Congress permitted the George W. Bush tax cuts to expire on schedule in 2012 and allowed the alternative minimum tax to hit millions of additional households, the CBO said. But under current tax policies, the CBO said, tax collections would barely cover the cost of the health and retirement programs alone by 2035.

“If policymakers are to put the nation on a sustainable budgetary path, they will need to let revenues increase substantially as a percentage of GDP, decrease spending significantly from projected levels, or adopt some combination of those two approaches,” the CBO report said.

From the Wash Post link above.

 

[Guns Guns Guns]

The CBO has credibility when it bolsters an argument and is totally unreliable when it doesn't, eh, Freaky?

 

[Jarod]

I love the Republican position that doing nothing = raising taxes.

 

[cawacko]

I love the Republican position that doing nothing = raising taxes.

(Making up numbers here) Taxes are currently at 10%. On December 31, 2012 the tax law that set the rate at 10% is set to expire. On January 1, 2013 taxes will be 15%.

So Jarod the great wordsmith would tell people we didn't raise your taxes but your taxes will go up. Ok, thanks for that Jarod.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

I love the Republican position that doing nothing = raising taxes.

I love how you are too stupid to realize that doing nothing means TAX rates GO up from where they are today.

Would you prefer it be phrased "doing nothing will mean tax rates will increase from where they are today"? "doing nothing means the tax brackets go back up"?

How exactly would you like us to phrase it so that your delicate sensibilities are not offended Jarod?

 

[Guns Guns Guns]

Now that Boehner the Moaner and Can't-do Cantor have bailed on the budget talks, it's time to ask:


Is the GOP trying to make the US default on it's debt so America will become more like Greece?
They wouldn't destroy the nation's economy in an attempt to regain the White House, would they? Would they?

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Not too bad if Congress does nothing. The problem is that Congress will do plenty of stuff that will increase the deficit:

The top chart is the do nothing scenario. It is what happens if existing law remains in place. The bottom chart is the "alternative fiscal scenario" which assumes that Congress will do various things that Congress typically does that will increase the deficit.

Congress doesn't need some grand bargain to reduce the deficit. All it has to do is nothing. Alternatively, it could introduce a beefed up PAYGO that actually required offsets for tax cuts or tax increases if doctor reimbursement rates are annually increased. All these bullshit negotiations going on right now are insane not just from an economic perspective but from a practical perspective as well.

Why are you assuming that revenue will rise to 25% of GDP? The expenditure in both pictures looks unchanged.

 

[Bonestorm]

Why are you assuming that revenue will rise to 25% of GDP? The expenditure in both pictures looks unchanged.

I'm not assuming anything. The chart is from the CBO. You can go here to check out its assumptions:

http://cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=12212

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

That is existing law.

Because the AMT isn't adjusted to inflation, just leaving it as it is would result in a tremendous tax increase over time. Eventually almost everyone would be paying the AMT. Of course that's going to bring in lots of revenue, the AMT is a pretty big tax.

 

[Guns Guns Guns]

I'm sure that no rightwinger would question the CBO, would they?

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