Alik Bahshi
Verified User
Alik Bahshi
South Caucasian Knot or the Third World War
Armenia's aggression against Azerbaijan and the seizure of 20% of Azerbaijani territory, including Karabakh, with the support of Moscow, plunged the South Caucasus into a 30-year war that ended with Armenia's defeat. However, since then, the tension in the region as a whole has become a compressed spring, ready at any moment to escalate into a war of a much larger scale. The fact is that this time there is a clash of strategic and economic interests of countries influencing the international political climate. Since ancient times, production and trade have been indispensable attributes of human civilization, for the functioning of which routes are of great importance. For many centuries, one of these routes was the Great Silk Road, connecting China with the Middle East and Europe. With the decline of China, the Great Silk Road lost its former significance. However, today, when China has become the leader of world production, the Great Silk Road has been remembered as the shortest of all possible. In addition, the delivery time of goods by land using the railway is much less than by sea. China has proclaimed the slogan "one zone - one road".
China's initiative to revive the Great Silk Road, which essentially embodies the slogan "one belt - one road", was not perceived unambiguously by all countries. If the EU, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Central Asian countries supported the Chinese initiative, then Russia, which considered itself a potential country for this project, found itself on the sidelines. Moscow lost the South Caucasus after the collapse of the USSR, and with it its influence on the political situation in this region. True, in 2008 an attempt was made to return Georgia to the bosom of the empire, but it did not work. Armenia and Iran were the most cautious about this project, and the reason for this is the inevitable change in the strategic situation. The fact is that this route should pass through the territory of Azerbaijan, Armenia through the Zangezur corridor and Turkey, in which case the Nakhchivan enclave of Azerbaijan, which has a common border with Turkey, will automatically be directly connected to Azerbaijan, that is, a continuous connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan will be restored, which, in Yerevan's opinion, threatens the security of Armenia. Here, the enmity between Armenians and Turks since the First World War, which the Armenians wrongly call genocide, undoubtedly played a role. But Armenia's even greater opposition to the revival of the Great Silk Road lies in the fact that through it and the Zangezur corridor, without which the implementation of the Chinese transport project is impossible, all Turkic countries will appear geographically as a single monolithic union. As a result, the idea of Pan-Turkism will be realized, similar to Pan-Germanism, thanks to which today a united Germany is the richest and most powerful country in Europe. For the same reason, Iran and Russia also do not want the Zangezur corridor to be transferred to the "one zone - one road" project. We have come to a very important accompanying circumstance, namely, the inevitable construction of oil and gas pipelines through the corridor parallel to the transport route. The EU is waiting for hydrocarbons from the Caspian Basin countries to reach the European consumer in sufficient quantities bypassing Russia, which naturally causes Moscow to panic and become angry at Azerbaijan as the main transport and energy hub. On the other hand, Moscow and Tehran must also take into account the fact that the North-South transport project, connecting Russia with the Indian Ocean countries, depends on Baku's consent.
I have an old article in which I foresaw the success and difficulties of Azerbaijan as a central transport and energy hub, which I will cite below, although 12 years later there have been changes, but in general, a political confrontation, which under certain circumstances can have very serious consequences.
Alik Bakhshi
Trans-Caspian gas pipeline or the Third World War
The idea of creating a Greater Germany led to the Second World War.
The idea of creating a "Great Armenia" ...
Baku and Baku oil were one of the main strategic directions of the Wehrmacht in World War II. In case of success, all military equipment of the Soviet Union would instantly turn into useless scrap iron, and Germany would receive a much-needed source of fuel. It so happened that after 60 years, a tight knot of geopolitical problems is gradually tightening around Baku, far beyond the regional ones, and could instantly develop into a large regional war, which has every chance of becoming World War III.
The basis of the emerging conflict is Moscow's old expansionist policy in the Caucasus, as well as easily predictable circumstances related to the inevitable economic difficulties awaiting Russia in the event that the Caspian states implement a project to extract and deliver hydrocarbons from the Caspian basin to Western Europe bypassing Russia. Naturally, Moscow will make every effort, including military ones, to maintain its monopoly in this vitally important economic sector. True, the first attempt in the 2008 war with Georgia did not achieve its goal. It was not possible to capture Georgia, although the tank column was already on the approaches to Tbilisi. The fact is that by taking control of Georgia, Moscow takes control of the existing Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline and excludes any possibility of hydrocarbon exports by the Caspian countries bypassing Russia. In addition, an important strategic gap will be eliminated - the continuity of the Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran axis. It is quite possible that Russia was prompted to carry out a military provocation in Georgia by a strong Armenian lobby, since Armenia's isolated position not only complicates military cooperation between the Axis powers, but also worsens Armenia's already tragic economic situation.
The last episode of the eternal confrontation between Russia and Turkey resulted in the creation of a buffer zone on the fixed border, namely on the territory of the Yerevan Khanate of Azerbaijan, at the end of the 19th century by squeezing out the local Turkic population and mass settlement of Armenians from Turkey and Iran.
The Karabakh Khanate was settled to a somewhat lesser extent by Armenians. It must be said that the Russians could have just as successfully settled this territory with Kurds, who, like the Armenians, lived in a vast area of the region, and here religious affiliation obviously played the main role. Russia saw a reliable colonization of the Caucasus, especially in light of the long-term war with Shamil, in settling this territory with Christians, which is how the Kuban and Terek Cossacks appeared in the North Caucasus and the Armenians in Azerbaijan.
The Armenians, being traders and artisans, lived very dispersedly in the territory of Turkey, Iran and the Caucasus, creating a compact focal population in large cities. So at the time of the conquest of Georgia, Armenians made up 60% of the population of Tbilisi. An interesting fact is that in Yerevan, the future capital of the artificially created Armenia, Armenians and Kurds each lived 5%. In fact, the Kurds have no less right to claim the same territory under "Great Kurdistan" than the Armenians have under "Great Armenia". This is probably why, when during the First World War the Armenians, with the support of the Russians, raised a bloody rebellion in Turkey, the Kurds were also subjected to destruction along with the Turks.
To be continued
South Caucasian Knot or the Third World War
Armenia's aggression against Azerbaijan and the seizure of 20% of Azerbaijani territory, including Karabakh, with the support of Moscow, plunged the South Caucasus into a 30-year war that ended with Armenia's defeat. However, since then, the tension in the region as a whole has become a compressed spring, ready at any moment to escalate into a war of a much larger scale. The fact is that this time there is a clash of strategic and economic interests of countries influencing the international political climate. Since ancient times, production and trade have been indispensable attributes of human civilization, for the functioning of which routes are of great importance. For many centuries, one of these routes was the Great Silk Road, connecting China with the Middle East and Europe. With the decline of China, the Great Silk Road lost its former significance. However, today, when China has become the leader of world production, the Great Silk Road has been remembered as the shortest of all possible. In addition, the delivery time of goods by land using the railway is much less than by sea. China has proclaimed the slogan "one zone - one road".
China's initiative to revive the Great Silk Road, which essentially embodies the slogan "one belt - one road", was not perceived unambiguously by all countries. If the EU, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Central Asian countries supported the Chinese initiative, then Russia, which considered itself a potential country for this project, found itself on the sidelines. Moscow lost the South Caucasus after the collapse of the USSR, and with it its influence on the political situation in this region. True, in 2008 an attempt was made to return Georgia to the bosom of the empire, but it did not work. Armenia and Iran were the most cautious about this project, and the reason for this is the inevitable change in the strategic situation. The fact is that this route should pass through the territory of Azerbaijan, Armenia through the Zangezur corridor and Turkey, in which case the Nakhchivan enclave of Azerbaijan, which has a common border with Turkey, will automatically be directly connected to Azerbaijan, that is, a continuous connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan will be restored, which, in Yerevan's opinion, threatens the security of Armenia. Here, the enmity between Armenians and Turks since the First World War, which the Armenians wrongly call genocide, undoubtedly played a role. But Armenia's even greater opposition to the revival of the Great Silk Road lies in the fact that through it and the Zangezur corridor, without which the implementation of the Chinese transport project is impossible, all Turkic countries will appear geographically as a single monolithic union. As a result, the idea of Pan-Turkism will be realized, similar to Pan-Germanism, thanks to which today a united Germany is the richest and most powerful country in Europe. For the same reason, Iran and Russia also do not want the Zangezur corridor to be transferred to the "one zone - one road" project. We have come to a very important accompanying circumstance, namely, the inevitable construction of oil and gas pipelines through the corridor parallel to the transport route. The EU is waiting for hydrocarbons from the Caspian Basin countries to reach the European consumer in sufficient quantities bypassing Russia, which naturally causes Moscow to panic and become angry at Azerbaijan as the main transport and energy hub. On the other hand, Moscow and Tehran must also take into account the fact that the North-South transport project, connecting Russia with the Indian Ocean countries, depends on Baku's consent.
I have an old article in which I foresaw the success and difficulties of Azerbaijan as a central transport and energy hub, which I will cite below, although 12 years later there have been changes, but in general, a political confrontation, which under certain circumstances can have very serious consequences.
Alik Bakhshi
Trans-Caspian gas pipeline or the Third World War
The idea of creating a Greater Germany led to the Second World War.
The idea of creating a "Great Armenia" ...
Baku and Baku oil were one of the main strategic directions of the Wehrmacht in World War II. In case of success, all military equipment of the Soviet Union would instantly turn into useless scrap iron, and Germany would receive a much-needed source of fuel. It so happened that after 60 years, a tight knot of geopolitical problems is gradually tightening around Baku, far beyond the regional ones, and could instantly develop into a large regional war, which has every chance of becoming World War III.
The basis of the emerging conflict is Moscow's old expansionist policy in the Caucasus, as well as easily predictable circumstances related to the inevitable economic difficulties awaiting Russia in the event that the Caspian states implement a project to extract and deliver hydrocarbons from the Caspian basin to Western Europe bypassing Russia. Naturally, Moscow will make every effort, including military ones, to maintain its monopoly in this vitally important economic sector. True, the first attempt in the 2008 war with Georgia did not achieve its goal. It was not possible to capture Georgia, although the tank column was already on the approaches to Tbilisi. The fact is that by taking control of Georgia, Moscow takes control of the existing Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline and excludes any possibility of hydrocarbon exports by the Caspian countries bypassing Russia. In addition, an important strategic gap will be eliminated - the continuity of the Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran axis. It is quite possible that Russia was prompted to carry out a military provocation in Georgia by a strong Armenian lobby, since Armenia's isolated position not only complicates military cooperation between the Axis powers, but also worsens Armenia's already tragic economic situation.
The last episode of the eternal confrontation between Russia and Turkey resulted in the creation of a buffer zone on the fixed border, namely on the territory of the Yerevan Khanate of Azerbaijan, at the end of the 19th century by squeezing out the local Turkic population and mass settlement of Armenians from Turkey and Iran.
The Karabakh Khanate was settled to a somewhat lesser extent by Armenians. It must be said that the Russians could have just as successfully settled this territory with Kurds, who, like the Armenians, lived in a vast area of the region, and here religious affiliation obviously played the main role. Russia saw a reliable colonization of the Caucasus, especially in light of the long-term war with Shamil, in settling this territory with Christians, which is how the Kuban and Terek Cossacks appeared in the North Caucasus and the Armenians in Azerbaijan.
The Armenians, being traders and artisans, lived very dispersedly in the territory of Turkey, Iran and the Caucasus, creating a compact focal population in large cities. So at the time of the conquest of Georgia, Armenians made up 60% of the population of Tbilisi. An interesting fact is that in Yerevan, the future capital of the artificially created Armenia, Armenians and Kurds each lived 5%. In fact, the Kurds have no less right to claim the same territory under "Great Kurdistan" than the Armenians have under "Great Armenia". This is probably why, when during the First World War the Armenians, with the support of the Russians, raised a bloody rebellion in Turkey, the Kurds were also subjected to destruction along with the Turks.
To be continued
