Some perspective on school shootings.

[Mina]

As mentioned in a reply to another thread, I think we're probably doing more harm than good by making kids paranoid about school shootings. Schools are actually extremely safe places for children.

See here:

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/a01

In the decade ending with the 2018/19 school year, 18.9 kids were murdered at school in the average year -- that includes not just spree shootings, but absolutely every murder. That may sound like a lot, but think of what that means in context.

We have about 49.4 million k-12 students. Let's say they average 1,370 hours in school per year (180 days at 6.5 hours per day, plus an extra 200 hours to account for activities before and after school, summer school, and the like).

That works out to an annualized murder rate of 0.24/100k.

If that were a country, it would be a lower murder rate of any major nation (the closest is Japan, at 0.30/100k).

Now, compare it to the risk OUTSIDE of school. In the same decade, an average of 1,398 kids were murdered outside of school. So, based on 1,370 hours per year in school, that's 7,396 hours spent outside of school.

That works out to an annualized murder rate of 3.35/100k.

So, per hour, kids are 14 times as likely to be murdered when they're outside of school.

Does it really make sense to push this paranoia, potentially turning the children neurotic? Does it make sense to disrupt the school day with shooter drills, and spend billions on security theater, all while potentially dealing lasting psychological harm to the children?

As I've mentioned before, I come to issues in the opposite way as most people. I don't take a position and then go looking for data to back it. I go looking for what the data says, in order to inform me enough to take the right position. In this case, my political prejudices give me a reason to want to overstate the threat of school shootings, since they're about the only time the gun-control movement gets any momentum (and it really would save a bunch of lives in other contexts). But the numbers are what they are. School shootings are a statistically negligible risk.

Just to put more context around those 18.9 children murdered per year at school (again, ALL such killings, not just spree shootings), consider it in the context of COVID:

Most people are pretty quick to regard COVID as practically a non-issue for kids... to the point that even the left talks about things like school closures and masks not in terms of protecting the kids, but trying to prevent them from infecting more vulnerable people. Well, COVID is killing kids at a rate over 520 per year, in the US. So COVID is nearly thirty times as much of a threat to kids as school murders.

If a kid is going to be staring in fear at the classroom door worrying something deadly might come through, it would make more sense for the fear to revolve around someone coughing up a cloud of Coronavirus (or even the flu), than someone toting an AR-15. Statistically, those viruses are a MUCH bigger threat.

 

[Mina]

As mentioned in a reply to another thread, I think we're probably doing more harm than good by making kids paranoid about school shootings. Schools are actually extremely safe places for children.

See here:

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/a01

In the decade ending with the 2018/19 school year, 18.9 kids were murdered at school in the average year -- that includes not just spree shootings, but absolutely every murder. That may sound like a lot, but think of what that means in context.

We have about 49.4 million k-12 students. Let's say they average 1,370 hours in school per year (180 days at 6.5 hours per day, plus an extra 200 hours to account for activities before and after school, summer school, and the like).

That works out to an annualized murder rate of 0.24/100k.

If that were a country, it would be a lower murder rate of any major nation (the closest is Japan, at 0.30/100k).

Now, compare it to the risk OUTSIDE of school. In the same decade, an average of 1,398 kids were murdered outside of school. So, based on 1,370 hours per year in school, that's 7,396 hours spent outside of school.

That works out to an annualized murder rate of 3.35/100k.

So, per hour, kids are 14 times as likely to be murdered when they're outside of school.

Does it really make sense to push this paranoia, potentially turning the children neurotic? Does it make sense to disrupt the school day with shooter drills, and spend billions on security theater, all while potentially dealing lasting psychological harm to the children?

As I've mentioned before, I come to issues in the opposite way as most people. I don't take a position and then go looking for data to back it. I go looking for what the data says, in order to inform me enough to take the right position. In this case, my political prejudices give me a reason to want to overstate the threat of school shootings, since they're about the only time the gun-control movement gets any momentum (and it really would save a bunch of lives in other contexts). But the numbers are what they are. School shootings are a statistically negligible risk.

Just to put more context around those 18.9 children murdered per year at school (again, ALL such killings, not just spree shootings), consider it in the context of COVID:

Most people are pretty quick to regard COVID as practically a non-issue for kids... to the point that even the left talks about things like school closures and masks not in terms of protecting the kids, but trying to prevent them from infecting more vulnerable people. Well, COVID is killing kids at a rate over 520 per year, in the US. So COVID is nearly thirty times as much of a threat to kids as school murders.

If a kid is going to be staring in fear at the classroom door worrying something deadly might come through, it would make more sense for the fear to revolve around someone coughing up a cloud of Coronavirus (or even the flu), than someone toting an AR-15. Statistically, those viruses are a MUCH bigger threat.

Note, the 18.9/year average is homicides of children at schools. School shootings will also sometimes involve teachers, resource officers, janitors, or other adults dying. Overall, in that same decade ending with the 2018/19 academic year, the yearly average of total school shooting deaths (including adults and the shooters themselves) was 21.1 per year.

That figure, in turn, would include all deadly shootings on school grounds. So if, for example, a lover's spat between two teachers leads to one killing the other on school grounds, with no other casualties, that would still count. Most murders are done in ones or twos, not sprees. It would also include accidental shootings (e.g., a trigger-happy resource officer accidentally plugging an innocent kid), and suicides (Brian Johnson killing himself because the lamp he made in shop won't turn on).

 

[Mina]

Another thought:

There's been a lot of rhetoric suggesting that kids these days have it worse than earlier generations did, when it comes to the threat of violence. That is not actually true. Kids today are a lot LESS likely to be victims of violence than prior generations -- particularly anyone with the misfortune of having been a kid in the Reagan/Bush years.

In the dark days of the Reagan/Bush era, an average of 3.00 kids were being murdered per 100,000 per year. Even during the horrendous Trump murder wave of 2020, the figure was 2.44/100k/year, and as recently as the Obama years we were averaging just 1.83/100k/year.

So, while we may assume kids today are facing higher risks of violence then in the past, the truth is it was much worse in the 1970's, 1980's, and early 1990's (with the worst year in US history for juvenile murder being 1993 -- the last year before the Brady Bill became law).

Kids were being murdered at higher rates than in 2020 very nearly every year during that prior era. If you had a lunchbox with the Fonz or the Millennium Falcon on it, chances are you were running a much higher risk of being murdered than kids these days.

 

[Walt]

Schools are much safer than almost anywhere else in America, so the Republican "solution" is to make schools more like everywhere else in America.

 

[LurchAddams]

As mentioned in a reply to another thread, I think we're probably doing more harm than good by making kids paranoid about school shootings. Schools are actually extremely safe places for children.

See here:

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/a01

In the decade ending with the 2018/19 school year, 18.9 kids were murdered at school in the average year -- that includes not just spree shootings, but absolutely every murder. That may sound like a lot, but think of what that means in context.

We have about 49.4 million k-12 students. Let's say they average 1,370 hours in school per year (180 days at 6.5 hours per day, plus an extra 200 hours to account for activities before and after school, summer school, and the like).

That works out to an annualized murder rate of 0.24/100k.

If that were a country, it would be a lower murder rate of any major nation (the closest is Japan, at 0.30/100k).

Now, compare it to the risk OUTSIDE of school. In the same decade, an average of 1,398 kids were murdered outside of school. So, based on 1,370 hours per year in school, that's 7,396 hours spent outside of school.

That works out to an annualized murder rate of 3.35/100k.

So, per hour, kids are 14 times as likely to be murdered when they're outside of school.

Does it really make sense to push this paranoia, potentially turning the children neurotic? Does it make sense to disrupt the school day with shooter drills, and spend billions on security theater, all while potentially dealing lasting psychological harm to the children?

As I've mentioned before, I come to issues in the opposite way as most people. I don't take a position and then go looking for data to back it. I go looking for what the data says, in order to inform me enough to take the right position. In this case, my political prejudices give me a reason to want to overstate the threat of school shootings, since they're about the only time the gun-control movement gets any momentum (and it really would save a bunch of lives in other contexts). But the numbers are what they are. School shootings are a statistically negligible risk.

Just to put more context around those 18.9 children murdered per year at school (again, ALL such killings, not just spree shootings), consider it in the context of COVID:

Most people are pretty quick to regard COVID as practically a non-issue for kids... to the point that even the left talks about things like school closures and masks not in terms of protecting the kids, but trying to prevent them from infecting more vulnerable people. Well, COVID is killing kids at a rate over 520 per year, in the US. So COVID is nearly thirty times as much of a threat to kids as school murders.

If a kid is going to be staring in fear at the classroom door worrying something deadly might come through, it would make more sense for the fear to revolve around someone coughing up a cloud of Coronavirus (or even the flu), than someone toting an AR-15. Statistically, those viruses are a MUCH bigger threat.

Once we implement sensible gun laws nationwide, our kid will be much safer. TX redneck, lax gun laws put those killing machines in that assholes hands last week. That's gonna have to change.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Note, the 18.9/year average is homicides of children at schools. School shootings will also sometimes involve teachers, resource officers, janitors, or other adults dying. Overall, in that same decade ending with the 2018/19 academic year, the yearly average of total school shooting deaths (including adults and the shooters themselves) was 21.1 per year.

That figure, in turn, would include all deadly shootings on school grounds. So if, for example, a lover's spat between two teachers leads to one killing the other on school grounds, with no other casualties, that would still count. Most murders are done in ones or twos, not sprees. It would also include accidental shootings (e.g., a trigger-happy resource officer accidentally plugging an innocent kid), and suicides (Brian Johnson killing himself because the lamp he made in shop won't turn on).

Why shoot up schools? Why not Friday night football games or a Saturday morning flea market? IMO, the copycat effect is involved along with social media and mental illness. The psychology of school fads and mimetic theory should be considered too considering the ages of the school shooters.

https://www.thriveapproach.com/news/psychology-school-fads

Closed, artificial environments, such as schools, are perfect for inhabiting this mimetic desire. Competition is often rife and a sense of desire over objects can develop overnight. Additionally, the internet plays a huge part in the spreading and creation of desire within trends. Social media platforms provide endless opportunities for young people to exchange ideas, share images and links, and overall employ a significant amount of pressure on everyone to possess whatever the sought-after craze might be this time.

However, objects of desire exist predominantly because they are hard to get hold of. Once again, with the example of the fidget spinner - this product is now readily available. From Poundland to market stalls, it is virtually impossible to avoid their existence as they are so attainable. When a market becomes saturated, the trend is no longer as desirable. There is no mystique around it any longer.

 

[Mina]

Why shoot up schools? Why not Friday night football games or a Saturday morning flea market?

Yes, I expect copycat tendencies are at work. Like at one point in the 80's, there were enough people shooting up post offices that "going postal" became a phrase in the language. And in the 60's through early 80's, there was more of a tendency towards targeting politicians and other famous people (JFK, MLK, RFK, Malcolm X, Reagan, George Wallace, Harvey Milk, John Lennon, etc.) And in other times and places, it might be a trend of people dousing themselves with gasoline and setting themselves on fire in a public place, and so on.

This actually is another point in favor of what I was saying at the top, about us doing more harm than good with the hype. To the extent what motivates these shooters is a desire to make a splash, when every school shooting dominates the news for a couple weeks, it means we're likely to get more of them than we otherwise would.