Shouldn't we be at full employment by now?

C

canceled.2021.1

#AMERICAISDEAD
So the demalquedacrats say that extending long term unemployment benefits creates jobs.

Well we have been doing it since 2008. Can anyone explain why we aren't at full employment yet?

And please spare me the "Its Bush's fault"
 
Obama has attacked every industry but uneconomic alt energy!
So no we shouldn't be hitting on all cylinders with a bloated outdated gov doing all it can to stop industry!
 
The Dude said:
Obama has attacked every industry but uneconomic alt energy!
So no we shouldn't be hitting on all cylinders with a bloated outdated gov doing all it can to stop industry!
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WOW. I actually agree with one of your posts.

So do you buy into the January effect in the stock market? That being, as January goes so goes the year? I think it has a greater than 60% correlation.
 
I Love America said:
WOW. I actually agree with one of your posts.

So do you buy into the January effect in the stock market? That being, as January goes so goes the year? I think it has a greater than 60% correlation.
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It's very likely to be a big down year we are over due. Maybe Obama will attack alt energy too!
 
The Dude said:
It's very likely to be a big down year we are over due. Maybe Obama will attack alt energy too!
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I am watching the charts very closely. Went long and rode up to 1840 then went back to cash. 1814 is key support for S&P if it breaks through that, it could spell trouble, but I have chased a few false alerts (thank God for stop losses).

This has been a hard market to trade because it is fueled so much by the Fed. So many divergent indicators, but at the end of the day I have to let price be my guide and for now the bulls are still in charge though they appear to be cautious. Lots of sideways action this month with the bias to the downside.

We will see.
 
I put a hundred grand in apt and timber reits assuming growth will slow and folks will chase yield. I'm also buying Altria. A
Tabacco stock yielding 5 percent
 
The Dude said:
I put a hundred grand in apt and timber reits assuming growth will slow and folks will chase yield. I'm also buying Altria. A
Tabacco stock yielding 5 percent
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I actually like those picks. I will have to check the chart for Altria. Great company. I looked at them a year or so ago, but it was a bit stretched for my liking.

Do you do ETF Reits? I only do ETFs now. I find they spread my risk a bit better
 
Yes I do. VNQ is the only one I've done
Made a bunch in the past on individual reits HME apts, HCP medical, PCL largest timber in the country.
But only a fraction of what you do in rent.
 
The Dude said:
Yes I do. VNQ is the only one I've done
Made a bunch in the past on individual reits HME apts, HCP medical, PCL largest timber in the country.
But only a fraction of what you do in rent.
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Rent has been very, very good to me. It took me a lot of years to build up the real estate (None in Louisiana even though I lived there) I got my start in another state and kept it going after I moved to Nawlins and I only lived there for five years and no longer do. I like the stock market but realize that it is a rigged game and a small player like me isn't going to beat the big guys with their super computers making millions of trades faster than I can read a candle stick. That is why I started trend trading. I don't have to time the market and I don't have to be right all of the time. I just need to preserve capital. When I took my first short position, I was more nervous than a cat in a room full of rocking chairs because it didn't feel natural to bet against the market, but now it is just a trade.

It took me a long time and a lot of bad trades to remove emotion from my trading. I still have lapses and every once in a while I forget to place a stop loss and I kick myself in the ass for it. Or every once in a while I get gun shy about executing a trade and I kick myself in the ass for it.

On a separate note, it would appear that we have all of a sudden called a truce without officially doing so. Maybe we can do less bickering and learn a little from each other?
 
The Dude said:
Reits are my way to get into real estate.
Once I can afford a rental property in fl I'll sell the reits.
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My very first was a duplex when I got out of school. Low downpayment and renters paid my mortgage, plus all sorts of tax breaks. It just grew out from there. Obviously when one is in their 50s living in a duplex isn't very appealing, but it is a great way to get started.

You have to decide if you want to have a management company manage the property or if you want to do it yourself. There are pros and cons to both. A management company is probably going to take 10-30% off the top depending on what services they provide. If you are handy and can fix things yourself then you can save that money.

One little trick I learned (after experience) was to not let tenants know that I owned the property. I always passed myself off as the manager that worked for some absentee owner. I found that people were less likely to give me excuses about how they couldn't pay the rent. I would just say "I understand, but the owner is a prick and I just work here". Amazingly they always came up with the money. I also bought a piece of shit car and dressed very shabbily.

One avenue of real estate is renting to Section 8 housing. As with anything it has pros and cons. Pro is that it is guaranteed cash from the gobblement and you can charge inflated prices. Con is you are getting dregs of society and they trash your shit and you have to deal with lots of garbage. I never went that avenue for a whole host of reasons, least of which I didn't want to do bidness with the gobblement. But, I have friends who went down that road and it was very lucrative for them.

Real estate if done right can be a very, very, very lucrative deal. I find it offers very stable cash flow in my older years which is much more important to me and less scary than dealing with the vagaries and insider bullshit of the stock market. People will always need a place to live.
 
Oh one other piece of advice. If you buy a rental, set it up as an LLC. If you intend to buy more than one, set up an umbrella LLC and have each property have its own LLC. It costs a bit more in legal fees, but you are much more protected in case someone gets hurt on a property and you protect your assets.

You would be amazed what people will try to sue you for.
 
Keep an eye on 1820. It is key support. If it closes below that then the bears are in control.

Also look at the VIX. It touched $11.99 today which is very low. I usually trade options but a good VIX ETF is VIXY

Stay away from the others as they are ETPs not ETFs and very dangerous.

I am sitting in cash. If it closes below 1820 I am going short. My mistake last time was I didn't wait for it to close below my target and it never did and bounced back up. I jumped the gun on my position.

Always learning.
 
I Love America said:
So the demalquedacrats say that extending long term unemployment benefits creates jobs.

Well we have been doing it since 2008. Can anyone explain why we aren't at full employment yet?

And please spare me the "Its Bush's fault"
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I think the amount my insurance increased due to the ACA is creating jobs.
 
The Dude said:
1 in 5 years is down since I started investing in 84.
This looks like it.
The average for the down Yeats was 17 percent
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Given the duration of this run, I think it could be big.

What is tough to figure is the Fed. I don't think anyone disagrees that the bulk if this run is due to Fed action. I guess we will see if the Fed truly controls interest rates.

So will you get defensive or increase your position. I can't stomach big losses. That is why I started trading and stopped buying and holding. I typically miss out on the entire run of a bull market but i do protect capital.

I really need to get better at options trading.
 
I'm not going to argue about the fed, and I won't fight the fed.
I've always been more defensive than the market despite being 100 percent stock.
Bear markets usually predict recessions, I'm not convinced a recession is at hand.
I live on less than my dividends, so instead of reinvesting the rest I may build a cash reserve.
Thanks for the real estate info on LLC's. My plan is as soon as a bank will approve a beach house rental I'll start with one.
The plan is one in marathon fl, then one in Lake Tahoe.
 
The Dude said:
I'm not going to argue about the fed, and I won't fight the fed.
I've always been more defensive than the market despite being 100 percent stock.
Bear markets usually predict recessions, I'm not convinced a recession is at hand.
I live on less than my dividends, so instead of reinvesting the rest I may build a cash reserve.
Thanks for the real estate info on LLC's. My plan is as soon as a bank will approve a beach house rental I'll start with one.
The plan is one in marathon fl, then one in Lake Tahoe.
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That is pretty ballsy going for beach house rental. I looked into it in Destin and that is when I realized we were in a real estate bubble. There were more condos going up than the market could conceivably bear. They were asking $760,000 for 1000 sq ft two bedroom condos. Add on a management fee, too much supply and it would have been a recipe for disaster.

Before you dive in make sure you investigate the comps in the area and the competition. Make the seller show you rental history and ALL expenses. If you plan on staying there too be prepared for people to mess up your shit.

In the end I am glad I didn't pull the trigger. Me and the Mrs agree on wanting waterfront property to rest our aging bones but I want lake and she wants beach. We have a big ole pond and streams at the mountain retreat so she thinks that counts as lake front. She will probably get her way
 
Yeah I know exactly what you mean about destin, I've been going there annually since the 80's.
I'm more thinking of using the second home interest deduction than rental.
I took a real estate class in college and still don't feel good enough to seriously invest.
More of shifting assets from stock to real estate, offsetting some of the cost with rental income.
I have a tennis buddy who bought a house in the North Carolina mts. And he had to full time lease it as he couldn't get enough short term rentals. I want to buy when I don't need the rent to buy.
Thanks for all the tips, I'll be sure to get the CPA and lawyer on the LLC before I buy.
 
The Dude said:
Yeah I know exactly what you mean about destin, I've been going there annually since the 80's.
I'm more thinking of using the second home interest deduction than rental.
I took a real estate class in college and still don't feel good enough to seriously invest.
More of shifting assets from stock to real estate, offsetting some of the cost with rental income.
I have a tennis buddy who bought a house in the North Carolina mts. And he had to full time lease it as he couldn't get enough short term rentals. I want to buy when I don't need the rent to buy.
Thanks for all the tips, I'll be sure to get the CPA and lawyer on the LLC before I buy.
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No problem. I don't know a lot about beach rental. Whole different business plan.

As for not feeling confident you just have to dive in. It really isn't that hard. Make sure to do solid ROI and IRR calculations. The rule of thumb with real estate is you make your money when you buy.

Also don't be afraid to look for alternative means of financing. You don't always have to go through a bank. You can always ask an owner to carry the paper. Lots of benefits to that. You can get lower interest rate and lower down payment than a bank and the buyer gets income. Try to figure out the win for the seller. I have had sellers carry paper quite a few times. More often than not they won't go long term but it has worked for me.

Sometimes I have given them their asking price if they carry paper and give me a good interest rate. Banks are getting squirrelly about income producing properties because those are the ones they took a biggest bath on. So they are asking for 20% down and much higher rate.
 
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