Russian economy will be decimated, JP Morgan predicts

Russia faces a crushing economic recession on the scale of its 1998 financial crisis, top analysts have predicted, with savings wiped out and the currency devastated.

Sanctions imposed by western nations and their allies in response to the invasion of Ukraine will slash the size of the country’s economy by 11pc in the coming months, according to forecasts by JP Morgan.

Bruce Kasman, an economist at the investment bank, predicted a crash “in line with the drop in the 1998 debt crisis. The sanctions will hit their mark on the Russian economy, which now looks headed for a deep recession.”

The rouble has fallen by 40pc in the past two weeks, driving up the cost of imported goods and forcing the central bank to more than double interest rates in an effort to defend the currency.

On Friday, Russia’s central bank kept the Moscow stock exchange closed for a fifth consecutive day, marking its longest closure, as the bank desperately attempts to stave off financial collapse in the wake of a wave of western sanctions.

Russia's parliament has passed a draconian law that will punish anybody spreading "fake news" about Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine with 15 years in prison, part of a clampdown on society that has triggered a mass exodus of young urban Russians.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2022/03/04/microsoft-google-join-exodus-russia/


Looks like Tsar Vlad may have miscalculated. The question now is whether he can stave off economic collapse and popular unrest long enough to conquer Ukraine and hold it.

Note to Lost Legion: This is not fake news.
 
Don’t you believe that Putin took this into consideration before he invaded the Ukraine?
 
Of course he took it into consideration. I said he may have miscalculated.

First, as to the ease of taking Ukraine. Second, as to the world reaction.

Now what are his options? He can't just give up. He needs a face-saving way out. We'll see what happens.
 
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