Recession?

cawacko

cawacko

Well-known member
Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1542507545482231810
 
cawacko said:
Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1542507545482231810
Click to expand...

Something's gonna crash. I fear it will be a Greater Depression. Housing is insane right now.
 
cawacko said:
Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1542507545482231810
Click to expand...
It is different if UE doesnt go up, but that might still happen.
regardless our standard of living (nevermind the various metrics) is crashing
 
Matt Dillon said:
Something's gonna crash. I fear it will be a Greater Depression. Housing is insane right now.
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Conservatives predicted a Depression after Obama passed the stimulus.

Our economy is undergoing a fundamental change right now. We can only hope that we come out the other side stronger.
 
cawacko said:
Fundamental change in what sense?
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COVID has had a dramatic effect on how people look at working life, and what they expect.

I think the "Great Resignation" is just the start. Our mindset as a workforce is just different now - especially the younger generation. But there have also been stories about how management & leadership at companies are re-thinking their priorities and what they really want out of a career.

It's too early to predict what industries this may help, and which ones it will hurt. But changes are coming.
 
cawacko said:
Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.
Click to expand...

America is doing great with GDP and unemployment- in comparison to other G7 countries in post pandemic recovery!

BUT YOU FORGOT TO MENTION THAT!

CAWACKOFF is a Typical BUTT-HURT TRUMPTARD still licking his wounds AND TRUMP's ASS over CRIMINAL TRUMP's huge re-election defeat!
 
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BartenderElite said:
COVID has had a dramatic effect on how people look at working life, and what they expect.

I think the "Great Resignation" is just the start. Our mindset as a workforce is just different now - especially the younger generation. But there have also been stories about how management & leadership at companies are re-thinking their priorities and what they really want out of a career.

It's too early to predict what industries this may help, and which ones it will hurt. But changes are coming.
Click to expand...

This is true. Many people have left big cities for the suburbs or rural areas or even different states because they have the ability to work remotely. Will that last? Will businesses require workers to start coming back to the office more frequently thus forcing changes in where people live and work? All remains to be seen.

But this didn’t start within the past couple of months. This isn’t a new factor in current GDP numbers
 
cawacko said:
Wow. So all other major industrialized countries are currently in recession?
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Where did I imply that?

Get you a little Butt salve- and you'll get over your main problem SOUR PUSS!

Wasn't it Chicken Little that cried- "THE SKY IS FALLING- THE SKY IS FALLING"?

Well Chicken Little?

There is more to recession, in my opinion- THAN JUST GDP CHARTS.

I define a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

Obama inherited a recession from Bush II that began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, according to NBER, the longest economic downturn since World War II.

Under that Reagan-to-Trump timeline, the Republican presidencies had four recessions start in their terms: one each under Reagan and George H. W. Bush, and two under George W. Bush. By contrast, Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had zero.

With the economic downturn created by the coronavirus pandemic, a recession is likely to be declared after the latest GDP data is released, sometime in July. We may be in one now, but it has not been deemed official.

Digging through the historical record, every Republican president since Chester A. Arthur (1881-85) had a recession during his administration.

Democratic presidents since Reagan: The Clinton administration posted 7.5% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2000 and averaged 3.7% over eight years.

Of the post-World War II presidents, only Truman, at 4.8%, Kennedy at 5.2% and Johnson at 5.1% scored higher average growth rates. By contrast, Reagan averaged 3.5%, Carter 3.3%, Nixon 3.1%, Bush I and Ford 2.2% and Bush II 1.65%.

The Obama administration posted a modest 2% growth over eight years, after inheriting the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression from the George W. Bush years, with the U.S. losing nearly 800,000 jobs a month.

During Obama's two terms, the economy added jobs for 75 straight months and ended with the highest level of household income ever recorded.

DO I NEED TO GO ON?- Because I have a lot more comparisons to make- BASED ON PURE AMERICAN HISTORICAL FACTS!

Well- CHICKEN LITTLE?
 
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Geeko Sportivo said:
Where did I imply that?

Get you a little Butt salve- and you'll get over your main problem SOUR PUSS!
Click to expand...

I’m probably missing something but since when did discussing current economic conditions cause such a meltdown? Are economics and the economy an off limit topic? Such anger.

Maybe I’ll try that with clients at work. “Economic conditions are absolutely irrelevant you idiots!” Maybe it will work!
 
yes its official and as noted, its different this time and not in a good way.

UE is already happening and will get worse.

We have to absorb the losee of QE AND QT. Thats never happened.

Bidens proxy war is far from over.

Food shortages are only just beginning.

Housing bubble has burst leaving people unable to afford to buy.

Auto bubble bursting.

Tech bubble bursting.

Consumer confidence is through the floor.

Its anything but clear if Powell has the nads to fix it.
 
cawacko said:
Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.
Click to expand...
Real unemployment hasn't been below 20% in the last 14 years. We're in 1929 territory which took WWII to get out of. The US empire is in desperation mode and it's not going to be pretty.
 
I’d say some form of recession is inevitable, but I don’t see anything comparable to 2008, question becomes how severe and how long
 
cawacko said:
Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1542507545482231810
Click to expand...
Its transitory
 
Geeko Sportivo said:
America is doing great with GDP and unemployment- in comparison to other G7 countries in post pandemic recovery!

BUT YOU FORGOT TO MENTION THAT!

CAWACKOFF is a Typical BUTT-HURT TRUMPTARD still licking his wounds AND TRUMP's ASS over CRIMINAL TRUMP's huge re-election defeat!
Click to expand...
BUT TRUMP!!!!
 
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