Quarter 2 GDP Figure Prediction

[gfm7175]

It was just today announced that the Q1 GDP was (on the surface) a rather poor -0.3%. JPP's leftists are very quick to gloat about "Trump failing" without even realizing what is actually happening (and that the -0.3% figure is actually a "falsely low" figure).

So, what is happening? If you look at Table 1 of the GDP report (found HERE), you will notice
that investment is way up (21.9%), of which equipment is up 22.5%. You will also notice that imports are WAY up (41.3%), of which goods is up 50.9%.

What does this mean?? This means that companies are currently in the process of shifting their manufacturing from overseas and into the USA. IOW, this Q1 GDP figure is artificially low (to the tune of roughly 5 percentage points) due to a TEMPORARY but massive increase in imports due to Trump's tariff announcements.

Therefore, I predict that the Q2 GDP figure (announced at the end of July) will be MUCH higher than this misleadingly "poor" Q1 figure (I'm conservatively guessing that the Q2 figure will be at least 4%) as the huge spike in imports will no longer be present to deduct from the GDP figure anymore.

Side prediction: Cargo shipments from China to USA will severely drop during Q2 and the lying manipulative media will purposely ignore the fact that imports went through the roof during Q1, which is what caused the Q1 GDP figure to be "low". Since they MUUUUUST OPPOSEEEEEE TRUMPPPPP at every turn, they will do their typical cherry picking BS, solely focusing on the upcoming massive DROP in ORDERS from China (while purposely ignoring the massive INCREASE in IMPORTS during Q1). They will use that upcoming massive drop in orders in order to pretend that Trump's tariffs are "hurting consumers", even though the products that "aren't being ordered anymore" are ALREADY HERE (purchased in advance).

 

[gfm7175]

q2 will probably come in at 2.5%, which combined with -0.5% from q1, means the first half of the year will be at 1%(the average of the two quarters). Given the current situation, 1% is what passes as good news. Normally, 1% is bad.

To JPP Forum members: Walter has now likewise made a prediction about the Q2 GDP data that will be released on July 30th. He's thinking around 2.5% for the topline number. I (conservatively) guessed at least 4%. In two weeks, we will all find out who happens to be correct.

NOTE: My GDP prediction was already made months ago... In fact, it was made on the very same day that the Q1 results were released (April 30th).

 

[Walt]

Walter has now likewise made a prediction about the Q2 GDP data that will be released on July 30th.

The Atlanta Fed model is usually fairly close. It might be off by a little, but it is probably about 2.5%. q1 is already known to be -0.5%. It might be revised, but that is looking doubtful at this point. So the first half is around 1%.

I (conservatively) guessed at least 4%.

Wow, you really think that high. It is a brave guess.

Just looking around at the layoffs, and everyone afraid to hire, it does not look like 4% growth. The Atlanta Fed model seems a bit high to me, but very possible, so I will go with that.

My GDP prediction was already made months ago...

And you are sticking with it?

The diversity of capitalism makes us stronger. Good luck with your predictions. I would certainly like 4+% growth.

 

[gfm7175]

The Atlanta Fed model is usually fairly close. It might be off by a little, but it is probably about 2.5%. q1 is already known to be -0.5%. It might be revised, but that is looking doubtful at this point. So the first half is around 1%.


Wow, you really think that high. It is a brave guess.

Just looking around at the layoffs, and everyone afraid to hire, it does not look like 4% growth. The Atlanta Fed model seems a bit high to me, but very possible, so I will go with that.


And you are sticking with it?

The diversity of capitalism makes us stronger. Good luck with your predictions. I would certainly like 4+% growth.

The difference between you and me is that I do not outsource my thinking. And yes, I am sticking with it.

 

[Walt]

The difference between you and me is that I do not outsource my thinking. And yes, I am sticking with it.

I read other people's thinking, and learn from it. We, human beings, are not as smart as we like to believe. We do well on a team, but as uneducated individuals we do quite poorly.

 

[gfm7175]

I read other people's thinking, and learn from it. We, human beings, are not as smart as we like to believe. We do well on a team, but as uneducated individuals we do quite poorly.

No, you simply outsource your thinking to others.

 

[gfm7175]

The Atlanta Fed has a good model for now casting the GDP. Now casting is when you forecast the future numbers on the current situation. It has been making some amazing strides in the last decade or so.

It is not exact, but gives a good range. If we do get 4+%, as you predict, we will have to really rethink the models that are so off.

Quoted here for future reference.

 

[gfm7175]

The report is now out, and the topline GDP number actually ended up being 3.0%. This result is a whole percentage point lower than I had officially predicted in the OP of this thread three months ago on April 30th.

The Atlanta Fed model (who did Walter's thinking for him), was at about 2.5% in the weeks leading up to the release, and they put out a final number of 2.9% the day before the release.

However, back on the very same April 30th date that I made my prediction, they were initially at 2.4%, before diving way down to 1.1% the very next day, before jumping back up to 2.2% a week later. So let's just say that they were at about 2% at the same time (while I was at 4%).

Thus, the final result of 3% was smack dab in-between my guess of 4% and their guess of 2%.

After only looking at the topline number, and the graph of how each category affected the GDP figure, it turns out that my prediction PERFECTLY NAILED the import portion of it (which was the whole point of my post back on April 30th). The government and export portions also turned out roughly where I expected them to be. While I also expected the consumer spending portion to increase the topline GDP by a tad bit more than it actually did, I did not expect the investment portion to lower the topline GDP figure by nearly as much as it ended up doing, so my "miss" on the investment portion was why my prediction ended up being a whole percentage point higher than the actual result.

I'll dig into the details of the topline number later to provide my thoughts on whether or not the 3.0% number is actually a "good" number, as anybody quickly glancing at it would assume it to be.

I guarantee you that the libtards on this forum will NOT be as quick to praise Trump for this "good" number as they were back in the end of April to pounce on Trump for Q1's "bad" number. --- They will wait for their instructions from the media about it, and then they will find a way to poo poo on this 3% result as "not good enough" (they will also keep bringing up the Q1 result).

IN CONCLUSION: --- For predicting the final Q2 number three whole months in advance, I think I did pretty well.

 

[gfm7175]

Q1's topline GDP number was falsely low (a "mirage", as libtards will now refer to the Q2 topline result) because of the atypical spike in imports due to companies taking immediate action before the additional tariffs came through (and, in the long-term, gearing up to shift their "USA market" production into the USA). That caused the topline GDP number to be a handful of points lower than it would have been without the sharp spike in imports. At this point, it was entirely predictable that Q2 would be an "inverse" of Q1 and that the Q2 GDP would be much higher than it was for Q1.

A deeper look into the Q2 data shows that imports (expectedly) were the inverse of Q1. Investments did a similar thing too. It turned out as expected for an economy that is growing and gearing up to produce much more "USA market" items within the USA itself.

Continuing onward, into Q3, what is to be expected now is for the import portion of the GDP to return to a more "even" level (instead of a huge upward spike or a huge downward crater) and for the investment portion (specifically the fixed asset category) to increase to the point that "investments" should become a bit positive again. Investments are also lower than they "could be" atm due to the FED refusing to lower interest rates due to their TDS. Consumer spending should either hold steady or slightly increase.

Walter's favorite "Atlanta Fed" (GDP Now) forecast is currently estimating a 2.3% GDP for Q3. I think that this is, once again, a bit low. I would expect the Q3 GDP to be roughly the same 3% that it was this quarter (+- 0.5%). I would lean towards it being a bit above 3% rather than it being a bit below 3%, but in any event, the GDP will remain a so-called "good" number (it will definitely not fall below 2%, let alone return to Q1's sub-0%).

My prediction for Q3 GDP is 3.5% (roughly 3% +- 0.5%, leaning towards upper rather than lower).