"The Great Patriotic War"(Russia's WWII in Europe) lasted for 1,418 days. The Russians advanced 1600 kilometers(1000 miles) from Moscow to Berlin. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has lasted for 1,463 days(longer than Russia's WWII), and Putin has only advanced 60 kilometers(40 miles) at most.
In way, you either have a quick breakthrough, or there is some chance of grinding down the enemy, but no one in their right mind wants to go the grinding down route. Putin is losing between 1,000 and 2,000 troops a day, and is recruiting less than 800 a day, so is grinding down his own side. No one is volunteering for the Russian side out of patriotism, it is for the signing and death bonuses. The problem with both is he is running out of money to pay them. As he runs out of money, he starts cheating on the bonuses, which makes everyone wonder if it is worth it. Besides, the number of people willing to give up their lives for $32k is running down.
Russia will collapse in the next year, if this war continues. Putin keeps capturing the same towns, over and over again. He is unable to advance beyond a 10 kilometer strip, and unable to provide the forces for a real breakthrough.
There is a chance trump will come to the rescue. trump wants Ukraine to give land to Putin that Putin cannot capture in war. This will finally give Putin the breakthrough he just has not been able to get. It would move him past the natural and man made defense that he cannot get past. Better yet, trump wants to give him a huge amount of investment to rebuild.
This would all give Putin the ability to either re-attack Ukraine, or attack the EU in 5 to 10 years. Putin could keep up the hybrid/gray zone warfare during those years, and build back his military. He would have a military that is experienced in the new warfare. The EU would not have a military experienced in the new warfare, so there would be a real chance that Putin could get the breakthrough he wants against the EU. trump would demand that Ukraine stay weak, and they will have handed over their defenses, so Ukraine is also an option.
The problem is that trump no longer has much to threaten Ukraine with. trump has reduced aid to Ukraine by 99%, and yet the Ukraine is stronger than ever. Arguably the last 1% of aid, intelligence sharing, is the hardest for Ukraine to replace, but Ukraine is replacing it. It turns out they are clever people who can cobble together amazing things from drone networks.
In way, you either have a quick breakthrough, or there is some chance of grinding down the enemy, but no one in their right mind wants to go the grinding down route. Putin is losing between 1,000 and 2,000 troops a day, and is recruiting less than 800 a day, so is grinding down his own side. No one is volunteering for the Russian side out of patriotism, it is for the signing and death bonuses. The problem with both is he is running out of money to pay them. As he runs out of money, he starts cheating on the bonuses, which makes everyone wonder if it is worth it. Besides, the number of people willing to give up their lives for $32k is running down.
Russia will collapse in the next year, if this war continues. Putin keeps capturing the same towns, over and over again. He is unable to advance beyond a 10 kilometer strip, and unable to provide the forces for a real breakthrough.
There is a chance trump will come to the rescue. trump wants Ukraine to give land to Putin that Putin cannot capture in war. This will finally give Putin the breakthrough he just has not been able to get. It would move him past the natural and man made defense that he cannot get past. Better yet, trump wants to give him a huge amount of investment to rebuild.
This would all give Putin the ability to either re-attack Ukraine, or attack the EU in 5 to 10 years. Putin could keep up the hybrid/gray zone warfare during those years, and build back his military. He would have a military that is experienced in the new warfare. The EU would not have a military experienced in the new warfare, so there would be a real chance that Putin could get the breakthrough he wants against the EU. trump would demand that Ukraine stay weak, and they will have handed over their defenses, so Ukraine is also an option.
The problem is that trump no longer has much to threaten Ukraine with. trump has reduced aid to Ukraine by 99%, and yet the Ukraine is stronger than ever. Arguably the last 1% of aid, intelligence sharing, is the hardest for Ukraine to replace, but Ukraine is replacing it. It turns out they are clever people who can cobble together amazing things from drone networks.