President Biden gives great speech to audience of union workers

Walt said:
The change is happening most quickly in battleground states. So if you can get 4.5 million new votes, that would be a start towards being viable... But only a start.
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the battleground states are the ones where we only needed the 45,000......
 
BidenPresident said:
Trump and the GOP have so corrupted our nation that when a good President like Biden appears, people bash him for no reason.

I am dead serious.
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A nation is not corrupted. Politicians are. Politicians like Joe Biden.
I have already given the reasons I and others bash him. Argument of the Stone fallacy.
 
Walt said:
No, every year there are about 4 million new potential voters turning 18, and 3 million potential voters who die. That means that there will be 16 million voters more likely to vote for Biden, and 12 million fewer voters likely to vote for trump.

Republicans are still talking about getting the Reagan Democrats from 1980 to vote for them. A 50 year old man in 1980 would be 94 in 2024, or more likely dead.



The change is happening most quickly in battleground states. So if you can get 4.5 million new votes, that would be a start towards being viable... But only a start.
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You don't get to speak for everyone. Omniscience fallacy.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
lol, some of us were only 30.......I'm not dead and I'm still voting.....
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You were 30 in 1980? That will make you 74 in 2024. You hate doctors, and other health experts. We shall see how many more elections you live through, but it will not be many.

Sorry, but that is just the way of the world.

You will be replaced by less racist, less homophobic, less Republican people.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
the battleground states are the ones where we only needed the 45,000......
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Two mistakes in that statement. You do not get to magically only get voters where you need them. And states are shifting population constantly, with the battleground states being the fastest shifting.
 
Walt said:
You do not get to magically only get voters where you need them.
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you fucks did......look, simple fact....in 2020 there were three battleground states decided by a combined 45k votes......there is no way in the world there aren't 45k people who are disappointed in Biden, given the fact that even the majority of demmycrates don't want him to run.......no way Biden repeats.......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
you fucks did......look, simple fact....in 2020 there were three battleground states decided by a combined 45k votes......there is no way in the world there aren't 45k people who are disappointed in Biden, given the fact that even the majority of demmycrates don't want him to run.......no way Biden repeats.......
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Why would all those 45k voters only live in three states? Seriously, you would expect all the states to shift to get 45k voters in those three states. Basically, you need a million people to switch sides...

And then there is the change in the electorate. About 7 million trump voters will have died by then. About 5 million Biden voters will have died by then, but they will be more than replaced by new voters. trump will not have his voters fully replaced.

And people are disgusted with trump.

So trump needs a million votes to change the results in 2020, but more like five or six million to change the results in 2024, and he is several million behind where he was... So he has a year and a half to convince maybe ten million more people to vote for him.

I do not think he will do it.
 
Walt said:
Why would all those 45k voters only live in three states? Seriously, you would expect all the states to shift to get 45k voters in those three states. Basically, you need a million people to switch sides...

And then there is the change in the electorate. About 7 million trump voters will have died by then. About 5 million Biden voters will have died by then, but they will be more than replaced by new voters. trump will not have his voters fully replaced.

And people are disgusted with trump.

So trump needs a million votes to change the results in 2020, but more like five or six million to change the results in 2024, and he is several million behind where he was... So he has a year and a half to convince maybe ten million more people to vote for him.

I do not think he will do it.
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you aren't very bright.......the 45k people DID live in three states.......I DO expect voters in all the states to shift, even California and New York......but a shift of 45k or 450k will not change the results in California or New York......it WOULD change the electoral count in several states, however......enough to send Biden home......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
you aren't very bright.......the 45k people DID live in three states.......I DO expect voters in all the states to shift, even California and New York......but a shift of 45k or 450k will not change the results in California or New York......it WOULD change the electoral count in several states, however......enough to send Biden home......
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Usually, you would have all the states shift by the same amount. The chances that only the people in three states would shift is nearly impossible. Yes, I would expect California and New York to shift as much as Georgia. So if Georgia shifted by 1%, then California and New York would shift by 1%. That would be enough to change the results in Georgia, but not enough to change the results in California or New York.

This was all worked out by David Butler, back in 1945.
 
Walt said:
Usually, you would have all the states shift by the same amount. The chances that only the people in three states would shift is nearly impossible. Yes, I would expect California and New York to shift as much as Georgia. So if Georgia shifted by 1%, then California and New York would shift by 1%. That would be enough to change the results in Georgia, but not enough to change the results in California or New York.
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lol....now you have adopted the point of my first statement and tried to make it your own........good job.......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
no......once we have the 45,000 in three states the rest is gravy.....which was my original and final point......
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Again, that is nonsense.... But it occurs to me that if you are willing to follow that strategy, you are assured failure, so I strongly support you thinking that.
 
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