New ABC/WaPo poll: Dem advantage in 2018 midterm preference fades to insignificance

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61% of Trump voters plan to vote in 2018 to show support for Trump; 49% of Clinton voters intend vote to show opposition, per ABC/WaPo poll.
A Democratic advantage in preference for the 2018 midterm elections fades to insignificance among the most likely voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, signs of the Democrats’ enduring challenges in turning out their voters in off-year contests.

In a hypothetical national ballot, Democratic congressional candidates hold a robust 11-point lead over their GOP counterparts, 51-40 percent, among registered voters overall. But winnow down to those who say they voted in the last midterms and are certain to do so again and the contest snaps essentially to a dead heat, 48-46 percent.

Democrats enjoy an 11-point advantage among all adults in the sense that the country would be better off if they took control of Congress in a year’s time, 37-26 percent. Among the likeliest voters, though, this shrinks to essentially nothing, 2 points.

For one thing, despite President Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity, almost as many Americans say they’ll vote in 2018 to show support for Trump as to show opposition to him, 22 versus 26 percent, with half saying he won’t be a factor. Indeed 57 percent of Republicans say they’ll vote to show support for Trump, while fewer Democrats, 46 percent, intend to send a message against him.

While Trump’s unpopularity presents an opportunity for the Democrats, it’s currently far from crystallized. In July, Americans said they were more likely to show opposition to Trump in 2018 than to show support for him by a 6-point margin; now it’s 4 points. The change itself isn’t large enough to be meaningful, but July’s 6-point gap was statistically significant, while the new 4-point gap isn’t.
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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democratic-advantage-18-poll/story?id=50918560

So a couple of things to point out.

First, we are still a year out. I make this post only in response to idiots that think they can predict anything a year+ out from an election.

In spite of that though, this poll/study does a remarkable job of putting to bed many of the often mis-understood aspects of raw poll data.

Namely:


  • Approval numbers do not result in a 1:1 correlation with regards to votes, especially in a polarized electorate
  • Democrats have always been lazy motherfuckers, and can't get time off from their prole button pushing jobs to vote
  • National polls are only so useful. They are not a perfect indicator when we have state elections in gerrymandered districts
  • Even with low approval trump core is still more motivated and high energy.
  • Polls of Americans vs. registered/likely voters will always skew liberal and are not accurate pictures of the electorate.
  • In spite of lower approval ratings, the desire to vote against trump has faded since July. That's weird. Passion fatigue? Normalization? I said these things would happen.
  • Posters like BAC are all talk.

 
CANADASLAVERY69 said:
61% of Trump voters plan to vote in 2018 to show support for Trump; 49% of Clinton voters intend vote to show opposition, per ABC/WaPo poll.



http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democratic-advantage-18-poll/story?id=50918560

So a couple of things to point out.

First, we are still a year out. I make this post only in response to idiots that think they can predict anything a year+ out from an election.

In spite of that though, this poll/study does a remarkable job of putting to bed many of the often mis-understood aspects of raw poll data.

Namely:


  • Approval numbers do not result in a 1:1 correlation with regards to votes, especially in a polarized electorate
  • Democrats have always been lazy motherfuckers, and can't get time off from their prole button pushing jobs to vote
  • National polls are only so useful. They are not a perfect indicator when we have state elections in gerrymandered districts
  • Even with low approval trump core is still more motivated and high energy.
  • Polls of Americans vs. registered/likely voters will always skew liberal and are not accurate pictures of the electorate.
  • In spite of lower approval ratings, the desire to vote against trump has faded since July. That's weird. Passion fatigue? Normalization? I said these things would happen.
  • Posters like BAC are all talk.
Click to expand...
Where does independent voters like you and I factor in and what of the Bernie voters? I saw Republicans and Democrats mentioned, but it’s always the independents that make a difference.
 
Don't be fooled by polls. They are compiled by the same pollsters who said Hillary would win, using the same methods.

Smash DEMOCRATS in the only polls that matter - the elections.
 
Covfefe said:
Where does independent voters like you and I factor in and what of the Bernie voters? I saw Republicans and Democrats mentioned, but it’s always the independents that make a difference.
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i'm probably not voting in 2018. waste of time in massachusetts. Unless there is some interesting local ref on the ballot that I care about.
 
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the Senators from California and New York will be Demmycrats after 2018......
 
CANADASLAVERY69 said:
61% of Trump voters plan to vote in 2018 to show support for Trump; 49% of Clinton voters intend vote to show opposition, per ABC/WaPo poll.
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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democratic-advantage-18-poll/story?id=50918560

So a couple of things to point out.



First, we are still a year out. I make this post only in response to idiots that think they can predict anything a year+ out from an election.

In spite of that though, this poll/study does a remarkable job of putting to bed many of the often mis-understood aspects of raw poll data.

Namely:


  • Approval numbers do not result in a 1:1 correlation with regards to votes, especially in a polarized electorate
  • Democrats have always been lazy motherfuckers, and can't get time off from their prole button pushing jobs to vote
  • National polls are only so useful. They are not a perfect indicator when we have state elections in gerrymandered districts
  • Even with low approval trump core is still more motivated and high energy.
  • Polls of Americans vs. registered/likely voters will always skew liberal and are not accurate pictures of the electorate.
  • In spite of lower approval ratings, the desire to vote against trump has faded since July. That's weird. Passion fatigue? Normalization? I said these things would happen.
  • Posters like BAC are all talk.
Click to expand...

:thup:
 
God bless America said:
Don't be fooled by polls. They are compiled by the same pollsters who said Hillary would win, using the same methods.

Smash DEMOCRATS in the only polls that matter - the elections.
Click to expand...

You're confusing polls w/ poll interpretations.

The vast majority of polls in 2016 were as accurate as they have ever been, and within the margin of error. The polls are just a guide, but they're not fixed.
 
Thing1 said:
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But, Hillary! :rofl2:
 
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