My prediction for 2010

[Jarod]

If the health care bill passes... my prediction is the Reps re-take the house and pick up 5-6 seats in the Senate.

If the health care bill fails, then the Reps pick up 3-4 seats in the Senate and about 30 seats in the house.

No chance the health care bill will not pass, thats been a lock for several months.

 

[leaningright]

If the health care bill passes... my prediction is the Reps re-take the house and pick up 5-6 seats in the Senate.

If the health care bill fails, then the Reps pick up 3-4 seats in the Senate and about 30 seats in the house.

Ahh......so you are of the Ray Stevens "If you vote Obamacare we'll vote you out of there" thinkers. I tend to think that way as well. We'll see. I really dont' want the reps to "re-take" anything right now but would like more balance.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

A "balance" means nothing gets done. Or, more likely, the Republicans get everything they want. The filibuster only applies to Democrats, and the Democrats are the only ones that allow massive amounts of reps and senators to dissent.

 

[Chapdog]

There is a reason some senators are giving up there seats. Obamas got zero coat tails for this November. Keep your eye on the MA special senate race. Coakley should win by a landslide.. if Brown musters a close race the dems are in big trouble this fall.

 

[Cancel 2018. 3]

A "balance" means nothing gets done. Or, more likely, the Republicans get everything they want. The filibuster only applies to Democrats, and the Democrats are the only ones that allow massive amounts of reps and senators to dissent.

you're such a big baby...you whined about this all last year despite having basically 60 seats....

 

[Jarod]

Why are the Democrats fighting for the Healthcare package and the Republicans fighting it so much...

Victory on healthcare helps the Democrats, they will still loose seats just not as many.

Dont kid yourself, not even Democratic Congressmen vote against self interest...!

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

No chance the health care bill will not pass, thats been a lock for several months.

We shall see... it only takes one Senator's vote to go from yes to no.

Plus, will the House liberals accept the Senate version?

Will they actually let the public see this thing before they vote on it? If they don't... they will pay dearly in November.

Or will they hold another vote at 1 in the morning to avoid the public eye?

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

There is a reason some senators are giving up there seats. Obamas got zero coat tails for this November. Keep your eye on the MA special senate race. Coakley should win by a landslide.. if Brown musters a close race the dems are in big trouble this fall.

Rasmussen had a 9 point margin - 4.5% swing. That would be pretty terrible in the only state in America with as many liberals as conservatives. Nate Silver wrote an entire post criticizing them for their model of that poll, though, whereas he's usually been supportive of Rasmussen in face of critiscism.

The Democrats are going to lose about 10 seats for every 1% of the vote that swings against them. I'm predicting that there will be a 2% swing - the Democrats will win 51% of the house aggregate, while the Republicans will win about 47%. Anything above a 2% swing is the danger zone for Democrats in which their in danger of losing their majority.

The senate is more complicated.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

We shall see... it only takes one Senator's vote to go from yes to no.

Plus, will the House liberals accept the Senate version?

Will they actually let the public see this thing before they vote on it? If they don't... they will pay dearly in November.

Or will they hold another vote at 1 in the morning to avoid the public eye?

They should do whatever is necessary to pass the bill.

 

[Jarod]

The bill is all but passed, I am not even sure they need a supermajority anymore, are they not past the point where they need 60 votes?